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Currency Strenght

Thursday 24 May 2012

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Possiable 5th wave end

A larger than expected U.S. trade deficit won't change the outlook for the U.S. economy or make the Federal Reserve any more dovish.  In the month of April, the trade deficit narrowed to $50.1 billion from $52.6 billion.  Economists had hoped that the balance would rise back above  -$50 billion but weak global demand prevented that from happening. Along with the downward revision to the past month's report, trade activity will contribute negative GDP  growth


This trade worked out nicely as predicted so following on there is a lot more pips to catch
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The Bank of Canada left the policy rate unchanged at 1%. Policymakers acknowledged worsening in global economic outlook and increasing risks going forward. Yet, it retained the stance that the next move of the central bank would be a rate hike, rather than a cut. This should be attributed to the relatively stable domestic recovery. Concerning exchange rate, the BOC retained the rhetoric that persistent appreciation would be detrimental to growth despite the recent decline. More in BOC Left Interest Rates Unchanged, Statement Not as Dovish as Anticipated.









Up North, Canada also suffered from slower global growth as the country's trade surplus turned into a deficit.  For the month of April, Canada's trade balance was -0.37 billion versus a downwardly revised 0.15 billion in March.  It was a tough morning for Canada which explains the weakness in the Canadian dollar.  Aside from reporting a trade deficit, job growth slowed materially while housing starts declined.  After 2 solid months of strong employment gains, only a mere 7.7k jobs were added last month - nearly all of which were part time work.  The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 7.3 percent.  Housing starts on the other hand dropped to 211.4k from 243.8k.  When the Bank of Canada met earlier this week, they held onto their belief that it may soon be time to unwind monetary stimulus.  With asset markets falling,oil http://www.fx360.com/App_Common/images/chart-icon.gif prices declining and economic data weakening, it will be difficult for them to justify one this year. 

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