Eurusd Rise or Fall

EUR/USD made impressive gains on high hopes for a resolution in the Greek crisis. After breaking back into the previous high channel, will the pair surge over 1.30? A critical Eurogroup meeting on Monday holds the key, and later, inflation and employment figures are among the highlights. Here is an outlook for the highlights of the week and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.

Disagreements between the IMF and the Eurogroup over Greece’s long term targets sent the sides back to the drawing board, but they seem to be cooking something. EUR/USD already prices in a deal. However, it is important to note that the last part of the rally was also aided by positive news from Germany – a rise in business confidence. Is Europe getting its act together, or is it just some temporary optimism?

EUR/USD daily graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge: 

1. Elections in Catalonia: Sunday. The rich northeastern region of Spain called early elections after a huge demonstration calling for independence was met with no flexibility on fiscal issues from Madrid. Pro-independence parties are expected to win, and the next move will be a referendum for independence. Spain is already in a deep crisis and more political instability with a risk of losing a significant source of income could weigh on the euro-zone.
2. Eurogroup Meeting on Greece: Monday. After the previous meeting failed, there are high hopes that the a magic solution will be found to please the IMF about Greece’s debt trajectory, while not forcing euro-zone governments to accept losses. The Greek salad of lower interest rates, redistributing of ECB profits, and a buyback program for some private debt are the main ingredients that are considered. On top, some sauce of wishful thinking – picking the best case scenarios, is supposed to make everyone happy.
3. GfK German Consumer Climate: Monday, 7:00. Consumer confidence in Germany was revised up to the highest level since 2007 in October, reaching 6.3, from an upwardly revised 6.1 in the previous month. The surge occurred amid increased optimism regarding economic expectations. Domestic consumption could be the only factor to prevent Germany from sliding into recession. The same reading is expected now.
4. German Import Prices: Mon-Tue. Germany’s import price softened more than expected in September declining 0.7% after rising 1.3% in the previous month. Economists expected a 0.3% increase. A 0.5% decline is forecasted.
5. German CPI: Wednesday. Germany’s economic data continues to soften with Preliminary CPI showing a flat reading, following the same reading in the previous month. Germany’s weak data is weighing on the EU, advancing risk aversion.
6. M3 Money Supply: Wednesday, 9:00. Eurozone money in circulation grew at a slower than predicted pace in July, rising 2.7% from 2.8% in June. Economists expected the rate of growth to reach 3%. A 2.8% rise is anticipated.
7. Private Loans: Wednesday, 9:00. Loans to companies and households in the euro zone declined more than expected in September edging down 0.8% from the same month a year ago, amid worsening in the euro zone debt crisis. Analysts expected a 0.4% drop. A 0.8% decline is forecasted this time.
8.  German Unemployment Change: Thursday, 8:55. German unemployment doubled economists forecast in October by surging a seasonally adjusted 20,000 from 1,200 in September. Analysts expected a 10,000 increase.  The Bundesbank forecasted weaker economic growth in the fourth quarter amid the European debt crisis and global slowdown. A decline to 17,000 is forecasted now.
9. Retail PMI: Thursday, 9:10. Euro Zone retail sales declined more the expected in September, down by 0.2% from a 0.2% increase in August. The PMI dropped from September’s three-month high of 47.1, to 45.3 indicating the retail sector remained depressed at the start of the final quarter of 2012.
10. German Retail Sales: Friday, 7:00. Germany’s retail sales increased more than predicted in September, surging 1.5% from 0.1% increase in August, raising hopes that domestic consumption will underpin economic activity in the third quarter. The government revised down its growth forecast for next year to 1.0%, but raised the 2012 GDP outlook to 0.8%. A 0.3% decline is predicted now.
11. French Consumer Spending: Friday, 7:45. French consumer spending climbed moderately by 0.1% in September, following 0.8% drop in August. The reading was below the 0.2% increase forecasted by analysts. This small rise may indicate an increase in spending for the thirds quarter. A drop of 0.1% is forecasted now.
12.  CPI Flash Estimate: Friday, 10:00. Eurozone inflation declined in October, reaching 2.5%, in line with predictions, following 2.6% in September. Commodity prices remained relatively high as well as energy prices, maintaining inflation. A further decline to 2.4% is expected now.
13. Unemployment Rate: Friday, 10:00.  Unemployment in the euro zone edged up 11.6% in September, posting a record high reading, following 11.5% in August. The number of unemployed people in rose by 146,000 to 18.49 million. Spain, has the highest unemployment rate of 25.8%, followed by Greece at 25.1% and Portugal at 15.7%. Another increase to 11.7% is expected

by YOHAY ELAM 

FTSE100, CAC40

FTSE 100 4hrs

Credit rating Agency Moodys stripped France of its AAA rating Signalling that  it could be downgraded further if economic condition do not improve.

Google Gaint out look

 Google Inc.’s $22.5 million agreement with the U.S. Federal Trade Commission to settle claims the company improperly planted cookies on Apple Inc. (AAPL)’s Safari Internet browser was approved by a federal judge.

“

Apple is also interested in resolving its dispute with Motorola completely and agrees that arbitration may be the best vehicle to resolve the parties’ dispute,” Apple said in the filing.

Motorola Mobility first raised the issue of arbitration on Nov. 5, before a federal judge in Madison, Wisconsin, threw out a breach-of-contract case that Apple had filed. The Cupertino, California-based maker of the iPhone claimed its mobile-phone competitor was misusing standard-essential patents to demand unreasonable royalties.

“We have long sought a path to resolving patent issues and we welcome the chance to build on the constructive dialogue between our companies,” Google General Counsel Kent Walker said in a Nov. 13 letter to Apple that was filed with the court. “While we prefer to seek a framework for a global (rather than piecemeal) resolution that addresses all of our patent disputes, we are committed to reaching agreement on a license for our respective standard-essential patents.”

Globe-Spanning Litigation

An agreement that goes beyond the Motorola Mobility dispute to cover other devices that run on Google’s Android operating system could help calm litigation that has spanned the globe, said Alex Spektor, an analyst with Strategy Analytics in Boston.

“It’s in everyone’s best interest in the industry to pull back and reach some sort of equilibrium,” Spektor said. “Google could offer a certain level of protection to licensees who comply with whatever standard it puts in place.”

The U.S. Federal Trade Commission and the European Commission are both investigating complaints by Microsoft Corp. and Apple that Motorola Mobility is misusing its standard- essential patents. The FTC staff has recommended filing a lawsuit against Google, according to four people familiar with the matter.

Unique Features

 

Worries in the Dance for the Eurusd

EURUSD 19/11/2012

The EUR/USD closed the week at 1.2743 off of the low of the week at 1.2662. The US dollar remained strong both on positive eco data and risk aversion trades with the DX hitting recent highs. Even after President Obama’s re-election the dollar was able to remain positive. Towards the end of the week the pair turned around a bit, as Mr. Obama took a very aggressive stand with the Republicans, and the weekly unemployment and the monthly retail sales disappointed, but markets wrote this off to superstorm sandy which closed the east coast.

The euro saw little headway in the debt crisis, with Greece being put off until November 20th and Spain just lingering. Markets were positive after Greece was able to refinance its debts that were due out of their own coffers. The euro tumbled into a technical recession but market sentiment was already negative so there was little response.
A report due next week is forecast to show an index euro- area services and manufacturing output contracted for a tenth month in November. A compositeindexbased on a survey of purchasing managers in both industries was 45.9 this month, from 45.7 in October, London-based Markit Economics will say on Nov. 22, according to the median estimate of 20 analysts in a Bloomberg News survey. A reading below 50 indicates contraction.
Germany is scheduled to sell 4 billion euros of 10-year bunds on Nov. 21, while Spain plans to auction securities maturing between 2015 and 2021 a day later.
In the U.S., both the New York and Philadelphia manufacturing indices contracted in November this week. And on Thursday, the unemployment claims ending the week of 10 November rose by 78,000 due to the impact of Hurricane Sandy.
Also Thursday, weaker prices were supported by the release of the third quarter gold demand report by the World Gold Council, which showed that global gold demand dropped 11% year-over-year to 1,084.6 tonnes in the third quarter, as Chinese demand weakened.
Important data to watch out for next week, include Ben Bernanke’s speech in New York, the October US housing starts, and the Bank of Japan interest rate meeting on November 20. The EU Summit and the Eurozone November flash PMI index are also slated for November 22.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed daily analysis and forecast evrey sunday and 4hour analysis leading into the week.

news from forextv

Summary

• Greece runs Out of money by the end of November
• Politions in disagreeemnt
• Christine Laggard head of the IMF states that they are working on a permenat fix to the Greece situation
• Barack Obama was face to face with cogresional leaders for the frist time over the fiscal cliff whichh means worries and more pressure on the us markets snce the election major indices were downmore than 5% across the board.

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Euro, GBP, CHF and the USD

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Forecast	Previous
Nov. 19	15:00	USD	Existing Home Sales	4.75M	4.75M
Nov. 20	13:30	USD	Building Permits	0.865M	0.890M
	13:30	USD	Housing Starts	0.840M	0.872M
Nov. 21	13:30	USD	Initial Jobless Claims	400K	439K
	13:30	USD	Continuing Jobless Claims	3338K	3334K
	14:55	USD	Michigan Consumer Sentiment	84.5	84.9
Nov. 22	01:45	CNY	Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI		49.50
	07:58	EUR	French Manufacturing PMI		43.7
	08:28	EUR	German Manufacturing PMI		46.0
	11:00	GBP	CBI Industrial Trends Orders	-19	-23
Nov. 23	07:00	EUR	German GDP (QoQ)		0.2%
	07:00	EUR	German GDP (YoY)		0.4%
	09:00	EUR	German Ifo Business Climate Index	99.5	100.0
	09:00	EUR	German Current Assessment	106.3	107.3
	09:00	EUR	German Business Expectations	93.2	93.2

Could a Storm be Brewing in the Tea Pot for Starbucks

Could a Storm be Brewing in the Tea Pot for Starbucks

Business Secretary Vince Cable has condemned corporate tax avoidance as "completely unacceptable", saying there are "appalling stories of abuse". He told the BBC's Andrew Marr Show UK authorities should do more to stop it. However, he said that tackling the issue required international agreement as well as domestic action. His comments came after executives from Starbucks, Google and Amazon were grilled by MPs, although the firms say they operate within the tax rules. The executives were questioned earlier this month by the Public Accounts Committee about how they used favourable European tax jurisdictions for their UK businesses. Starbucks, for example, has made a taxable profit only once in its 15 years of operating in the UK. As a consequence, the company is thought to have paid just £8.6m in corporation tax over the period. During the hearing with MPs, Starbucks admitted the Dutch government had granted a special tax deal on its European headquarters, which receives royalty payments from its UK business.

 

'Intensive investigation'

Mr Cable told Andrew Marr: "The best off in society have got to contribute more, and that includes companies."

Amazon's Andrew Cecil was condemned by MPs for failing to answer questions

He acknowledged that smaller companies, many of which face competitive pressures from the major firms, will be angered by the situation.

"

There's nothing more galling to small and medium-sized enterprises when they are paying (tax), and others are dodging it," Mr Cable said. "Our own tax authorities have got to be very tough on things like royalty payments, which is where a lot of the subterfuge takes place."

However, he said that finding a solution was difficult, especially as the UK had to make itself attractive to inward investors. "The big question is whether you can get wider (international) agreement," he said.

As companies are using favourable tax jurisdictions overseas there needs to "a combination of action at the international level as well as beef up our own capacity to deal with it".

Mr Cable said: "It is quite difficult to drill down to what the problems are. Starbucks claims they are actually making losses in the UK. I don't know whether they are not but you would need some pretty intensive investigation by the Inland Revenue to establish what exactly is going on, whether their transfer prices and their royalties are being fiddled or not."

All the companies under fire over the amount of corporation tax paid said that they operated within the tax rules and regulations and have done nothing wrong.

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Technically according to Elliot wave analysis we are long as Price confirms also Starbucks is gaining momentum with solid results in fiscal 2012; regular product innovations like the recently launched at-home coffee machine, Verismo; and great strategic deals like La Boulange, Evolution Fresh and now Teavana. Looking for new growth avenues beyond coffee, Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) has entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Atlanta-based Teavana Holdings, Inc. (TEA), a specialty retailer of tea for approximately $620 million in cash.

Teavana operates through 300 mall-based stores, which Starbucks plans to expand as well as establish new stand-alone Teavana neighborhood stores domestically as well as internationally. Moreover, Starbucks plans to open tea bars (which will make customized tea beverages) inside these stores, which presently sell only loose-leaf teas and related merchandise.

We believe that the coming together of Starbucks and Teavana provides the former a global opportunity to create a unique retail experience in the $40 billion tea category. Starbucks claims that tea is the world’s second largest beverage category with huge scope for innovation, which it plans to exploit. Management stressed though that the push into tea does not signal a slowdown in its core coffee business.

The acquisition is complementary with Starbucks’ already existing core tea business of Tazo tea. Starbucks sells Tazo tea in stores as well as across foodservice channels. Over time, Starbucks plans to create a two-tiered business where both the Tazo and Teavana branded products will co-exist.

Starbucks is constantly on the lookout for new businesses, which complement its core coffee offerings. Six months ago, Starbucks acquired bakery chain La Boulange and a year back it bought Evolution Fresh juice stores to expand its footprint beyond coffee. Teavana is another step in that direction.

I Really Like the AUDUSD Target 1: 1.0499

AUDUSD

We May see higher Prices in the AUDUSD Technically speaking as we have a series of Higher Highs. and Higher Lows.
And according to Elliot wave we have a 1 the 2 wave structure as the Aussie Dollar sets it's self of for a long wave 3 target of 1.0450 the 1.04500

Currently Mr Price is stuck in between the £ moving averages on the daily 8,34,55 As it decides what the next move is  we have

1. CB Leading Index: Monday, 23:00. This composite index is based on seven economic indicators. The index has been declining in recent months, and posted a drop of 0.8% in October. Will the index reverse to negative trend this month?
2. Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: Tuesday, 00:30. This is a record of the RBA Reserve Bank Board’s most recent meeting, and provides details regarding factors which determined the RBA’s most recent decision to maintain interest rate levels.
3. RBA Governor Glenn Stevens Speaks: Tuesday, 7:00. The RBA Governor will deliver remarks in Melbourne. A speech which is considered more hawkish than expected is bullish for the aussie.
4. MI Leading Index: Tuesday, 23:30. This composite index is based on nine economic indicators. The index has been quite steady, posting gains of around 0.5% in recent months.
5. Chinese Flash Manufacturing PMI: Thursday, 01:45. This PMI has been below the important 50.0 line since last October, indicating ongoing slight contraction in the Chinese manufacturing sector. However, the previous reading came in at 49.1 points, and the markets will be hoping that the PMI will break above the 50 level in November.

On the 4hr time frame

RR: 1.0459

RR: 1.0421
Weekly Pivot : 1.0369
Current Price : 1.0371
SS:  1.0288

SS:   1.0150

There are to plays Break to the up side above weekly Pivot
Break to the down side below 1.0345

AUDUSD Analysis. from forexcycle

below 

AUDUSD bounces from 1.0287, suggesting that consolidation of the downtrend from 1.0480 is underway. Key resistance is located at the upper line of the price channel on 4-hour chart, as long as the trend line resistance holds, the downtrend could be expected to resume, and another fall towards 1.0200 is still possible. However, a clear break above the channel resistance will indicate that the downtrend from 1.0480 has completed at 1.0287 already, then the following upward movement could bring price back to test 1.0480 resistance.

Tips on how to Trade Break Outs

The Breakout Trade

The Setup

For longs, many people like to use moving averages to identify trend and that’s ok, you can try a 20 period moving average. When it’s sloping up, you’re in an uptrend. Next, identify the origin of a strong move in price and draw two lines around the price action to create a demand zone (area “A”). An ideal pattern is the “Drop-Base-Rally”. In other words, area “A” should be preceded by a decline in price. Then, make sure there is a significant profit margin (profit target). This would be the distance from area “A” to “B”, the highest high of the initial breakout before price returns to “A” at “C”.

The Action

Buy at “C” when price touches the top black line and place your protective sell stop just below the lower black line. Adjust your position size so that you are not risking more than you are willing to lose. Place your profit target based on the high of the initial breakout “B” which in this case would have you selling for a profit at “D”.

The Breakout: Two types of entries, very different odds

The Breakdown: Two types of entries, very different odds

The proper breakout entry works in any market and any time frame. A key component to making these work that is beyond the scope of this article is this: When taking any buy or sell entries in markets, make sure you know exactly where price is with regard to the larger time frame supply / demand curve. Whether you trade Stocks, Futures, Forex, and Options, understand that behind all the candles on your screen in all these markets are people and their emotions. Most will fall for the emotional trading traps set by fear and greed, others get paid from this type of novice thinking.

Extracted from FXtechstrategy

EURUSD Price Zones 4hrs & 1hrly

From 9/11/2012  the Eurusd Continued to struggle, as the pair has been on a downward trend for most of the week. The euro initially was up following the US election on Tuesday, but has since coughed up those gains, following weak Euro-zone and German data. Today’s numbers out of Italy and France were no better. French Industrial Production posted its sharpest drop since 2009 and Italian Industrial Production also looked weak. As expected, the

ECB maintained its key interest rate at 0.75%. 

In the US, the markets are expecting a slight decline in the UoM Consumer Sentiment indicator.

4hr Chart



Important Price Levels to Watch Out for
0.2790 RR
1.2726 RR
Currenct Price : 1.2723 as of 03.25am
1.271770 SS

1.26.99

EUR/USD had a bad week, losing ground after losing the range. The re-election of Obama combined with no little progress on Greece sent the pair lower. German ZEW Economic Sentiment, and the initial GDP readings for Q3 are the highlights of this week. Here is an outlook on the highlights for this week and updated technical analysis for EUR/USD, now at lower ground.

The Greek parliament approved the austerity measures required for another round of bailout funds, but these aren’t guaranteed yet. Is the country closer to leaving the euro, or will its upcoming bond payment at the end of this week, be taken care of? The European Central Bank kept rates at 0.75% and warned about the economic situation. More importantly, Draghi practically said that the crisis is reaching Germany. Indeed, German exports plunged to the lowest level since December, amid low demand from the EU an global markets. In the US, Obama’s re-election ignited fears of a less-than-perfect resolution of the looming fiscal cliff and caused a rise in the dollar and a sell-off of stocks. This theme could somehow be resolved at the last moment. Written by forex crunch 

                                               1hrly Chart

USDYen Daily

Dollar/yen fell as safe haven flows poured into the Japanese yen.  GDP, Tertiary Industry Activity and Masaaki Shirakawa’s speech are the main market-movers this week. Here’s an outlook for the Japanese events and an updated technical analysis for USD/JPY.

The re-election of Obama was eventually greeted with a drop in stock markets and gains for the US dollar and the Japanese yen, with the latter winning against the former. Also the drop in US yields pushed the pair lower. Last week Japan’s core machinery orders deteriorated more than expected falling 4.3% in September after a 3.3% decline in August, adding another warning sign that the world’s third-largest economy is slipping into recession. Global economic slowdown as well as rising tensions with China and weakening domestic demand reduced the nation’s current account surplus. Moreover, economists forecast a 0.9% contraction in the third quarter with continued sluggishness for the rest of this year.

Important Levels to watch out for

79.75   Pivot RR 50%Fib

79.60   Lower RR

79.419 Lower SS

79.06   Low SS

Note: The Hammer followed by the Bullish Engulfing on the 4 hr Time Frame on the 9/11/12 @ 12.00pm

EURUSD New Month New Money update

07/11/2012

The Greek Govt toady may determine whether the country receives more financial aid the votes is for further 13.5 billion in spending cuts including tax increases and pension cuts 

 Daily Eurusd

EUR USD 4 hrs

All eyes on the Presidential election

US markets finished down 1% Friday, wiping out the previous session's gains, despite a better-than-expected government jobs report (non-farm payroll) and amid nervousness ahead of next week's presidential election.

US markets initially rallied after a better than expected non-farm payrolls report. Employers added 171,000 jobs in October, while the unemployment rate inched up to 7.9%, according to the Labor Department. Gold slid 2%, to settle below $1,680 an ounce for the first time in about two months as non-farms report lowered expectations for economic stimulus provided by global central banks.

What this means for Binary Traders

US markets were confused on Friday as buyers tried to take control due to the positive NFP report, yet sellers ended up ruling the day. This is a pure example of markets expectations shifting from economic data to a political event.

As the election comes to an end on Tuesday investors were not willing to become bulls.

Heading into the new week we may see significant volatility as analysts begin to release expectations on whom they believe will win the election which could cause major volatility within the entire market.

Binary traders need to take full advantage of this history in the making week.

Assets that may be affected

We saw significant volatility in both the currency and commodities markets last week due to a raft of economic data which was released. This week the key assets to keep an eye on are the Dow Jones, USD/JPY and Gold. We have already seen major movements in these assets as Gold fell to a two month low and USD/JPY rallied to a four month high. Market expectations are mixed heading into presidential election climax.

Though one thing is certain, it will be a HISTORY IN THE MAKING!

European share close higher after US jobs data

We know US markets closed sharply lower on Friday.  European markets closed higher due to the NFP report. Data released from the US and Europe suggested some stabilization in the global recovery trend, particularly in the world’s top two economies the US and China. As a result the Athens Stock Exchange closed sharply higher, after six consecutive days of losses. Spain's IBEX index also closed higher.

What this means for Binary Traders

It was a good set of numbers, but according to many analysts there could be a lot more growth and more jobs if companies felt a little more at ease with the economic outlook. We can see that earnings in both Europe and US have been disappointing and there’s no reason for corporations to think things are going to be different if there’s still political uncertainty. 

The positive NFP figures are undoubtedly a welcome report for the European market. Due to the current uncertainty within the euro zone, a positive jobs report shows a potential rebound in US employment, which subsequently has a positive effect on Europe. Heading into the new week we may see the European markets follow a similar trend to the US due to the presidential election coming to a climax. We are sure for another blockbuster week. 

Assets that may be affected

Volatility may be set to continue this week after the rollercoaster ride we went through last week. The key assets to keep an eye on for today are the EUR/USD and FTSE 100. EUR/USD fell significantly last week due to the growing uncertainty over the euro zone though we saw a continued bearish move even market NFP on Friday. The FTSE 100 was mixed as negative earnings weighed on European markets however the positive NFP provided a new lease of life for the major.  Heading into a new week we may see continued volatility in these assets, though the million-dollar question is which way will the markets go?