Timeless Fx Watch Tower

AUDUSD

Outlook in AUD/USD is unchanged. We'd continue to expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 0.8161 to 0.6905 at 0.7385 to complete the consolidation from 0.6905. Below 0.7164 0.71089  minor support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 0.6905 low. However, sustained break of 0.7385 will put 0.75542/0.7625 key resistance in focus.

In the longer term picture, at this point, we're not anticipating a break of 0.6008, 2008 low.

but i am expecting prices to hold  0.7168 and 0.7189 support zone in minor wave to for a third wave rally to key Resistance zones AUD/USD is oversold in monthly chart and a medium term rebound is due. Strong support is expected above 0.6008 to bring medium term bottoming.

4hrs 

CAD/JPY

CAD/JPY  oil dependant but still highly sensitive to USD/JPY (dovish fed less of a interest hike)

·         Catalyst will be on Wednesday CAD bank of Canada rate decision

·         Monetary policy report  

·         CPI

USDJPY

     USD/JPY

here were no surprises from the BOJ policy minutes, as the central bank maintained its aggressive easing program.

USD/JPY's dipped to as low as 118.05 last week but quickly recovered. So far, price actions from 121.65 is seen as consolidates pattern. Deeper fall could be seen but we'd expect downside to be contained above 116.11 and bring another rise. Above 120.34 will target 121.62 resistance. Break will pave the way back to 125.27/85 resistance zone.

We also have an Elwave supportive 2b count up count up in c  to 1st test Resistance @ 121.65 the to break towards 124.26 88.6 fib pull back 

1.    Trade Balance: Tuesday, 23:50. Japan’s trade deficit showed little movement in August, coming in at JPY -0.36 trillion, which was within expectations. The markets are expecting a smaller deficit in September, with an estimate of JPY -0.07 trillion.

2.    All Industries Activity: Wednesday, 4:30. The indicator posted a small gain of 0.5% in July, which was within expectations. The markets are braced for a decline in the August reading, with an estimate of -0.1%.

3.    Flash Manufacturing PMI: Friday, 1:35. In recent months, this PMI has hovered closed to the 50-level, which separates contraction from expansion. The indicator dipped in September to 50.9 points, shy of the estimate of 51.3 points. The estimate for the October report stands at 50.6 points.

4.    Tension is growing towards the October 30th decision with many analysts contemplating QE3 in Japan. Yet this might not come so fast.

AUDJPY

AUDJPY FOLLOWING Equities S&P500

waiting for a pull back into buy zone with equities and strong Aussies D4 play

challenge next fib @ 91.45

GBPUSD

The UK posted strong job numbers last week and this was enough to overcome the weak negative UK CPI. All in all, the economy in Britain looks OK. This, combined with poor retail sales and weak manufacturing dataout of the US helped the pound continue to rally last week.

1.     BOE Governor Mark Carney Speaks: Tuesday, 10:00. Carney will testify before the Treasury Select Committee in London. Any clues as to future interest rate moves could have a strong impact on the movement of GBP/USD.

2.     Public Sector Net Borrowing: Wednesday, 8:30. The indicator has posted monthly deficits for most of 2015. In August, the indicator posted a deficit of GBP 11.3 billion, well above the estimate of GBP 8.7 billion and marking the highest deficit recorded in 2015. Another high deficit is expected in the October report, with an estimate of GBP 9.1 billion.

3.     Retail Sales: Thursday, 8:30. Retail Sales is the key event of the week and should be treated by traders as a market-mover. The indicator edged upwards to 0.2% in August, matching the forecast. The estimate for September stands at 0.3%.

      Main scenario:
The pair is trading along an downtrend with target on 1.5345 and 1.5170, that may be expected to continue in case the market drops below support level 1.5500.

Alternative scenario:
An uptrend will start as soon, as the pair rises above resistance level 1.5500, which will be followed by moving up to resistance level 1.5625.

EURGBP

WEEKLY

EURGBP HIT THE WEEKLY FIB LOW 88.6

FOLLWED BY A 5 WAVE STRUCTURE IN 1 LOOKING FOR A 3 WAVE STRUCTURE DOWN IN  2 FOR A 3RD WAVE UP TARGETING 0.7557 THE 78.00

BUY PRICE 0.72630

0.72378

STOP @ 0.7196

USDCHF 

                                                   Price within a range 0.9549 and 0.9480

       USD/CHF's fall from 0.9842 extend lower last week and further fall could still be seen to lower om a fifth wave  line (now at 0.9379). But overall outlook is unchanged. Strong support should be seen above 0.9379 and 0.9261 to contain downside and bring rebound. Above 0.9549 minor resistance will turn bias neutral first. And, an eventual upside breakout is still favored. Decisive break of 0.9842 would target 1.0127 resistance.

                                                                            EURUSD

Euro-zone data fell short of expectations: with German confidence falling sharply, a narrower trade surplus and a reminder of poor inflation, things don’t look good.

The ECB also stepped up its game regarding inflation and further action: a comment by Nowotny showed us that the central bank does not like a strong currency. In the US, the poor retail sales certainly hurt the greenback, but it made a comeback with good inflation data. The ugly contest continues.

The European Central Bank just can’t let the euro rise. Or so it seems. After we have seen poor data in the US anddovish messages from quite a few sources, the ECB strikes back.

ECB member Ewald Nowotny says it’s quite obvious that an additional set of instruments is necessary – hinting more QE. EUR/USD falls.

Nowotny is not necessarily a dovish member of the ECB: he heads the central bank of Austria, one of the richer countries in the euro-zone. He acknowledged that the ECB is missing its inflation target and that also core inflation is too low.

This sent EUR/USD down from the highs of nearly 1.15, 1.1494 to be precise, all the way down to 1.1425, breaking below the critical 1.1460 line the pair fought so hard to overcome.

It is important to note that the US dollar remains weak across the board, and this includes both safe haven currencies such as the yen as well as risk currencies such as the Australian and Canadian dollars.

Further support awaits at 1.1375, followed by 1.1290. 1.1460 turns into resistance, with 1.15 and 1.1560 next in line