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AUD/USD 1H Chart 5/11/2012 11:45AM EDT
The AUD/USD was in a corrective rally trading in an upward channel during the 5/9-5/10 trading session. As we entered the 5/11 trading session, the market fell below the correction pattern and cracked this week’s low at 1.0019, but only barely. It held above 1.0015 and is now back to the 1.0070 area, which was a pivot during the 5/9-5/11 period where the decline slowed up.
It should be noted that the latest bearish swing failed to push the RSI below 30, which would have confirmed bearishcontinuation momentum. Instead, it shows that although the short-term momentum is still bearish, it is losing strength.
AUD/USD 4H Chart 11:50AM EDT 5/11/2012
The 4H chart shows a market in a declining channel. The RSI in this time-frame also failed to tag 30 in the latest swing. It is also showing an extended bullish divergence between price and RSI. Also, the price has been tagging the lower bollinger band which is a showing of strength to the downside, but also a shorter-term sign that the market may be oversold. Now price stays within the band, showing another sign that there could be exhaustion from the bear run.
Furthermore, price action shows that a double bottom might be forming. Right now, the resistance for this double bottom will be at 1.0143. A breakout projection using the width of the pattern points toward 1.0270. However, we should also monitor the 50% retracement at 1.0244 as well as the previous support zone to be tested as resistance in the 1.0225-1.0240 area.
A break above 1.03, and thus the 61.8% retracement of the latest downswing in the 4H chart, would suggest shelving the bearish outlook.
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