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svie morton

Intelligence to Formulate a Trading strategy

Intelligence to Formulate a Trading strategy. To formulate a strategy in war, sharp Snipers 1st analyse their enemies stregenth and weaknesses-such as its ability to re-enforce, call for back up establish its forces and defend its position as necessary.

The best way to gather information you would agree is to get constant data from the field. Snap shots from a high attitude giving signs, feed back from the trenches. but they are only clues. For example a convoy of trucks is passing through but you don't know what they are carrying inside them. Is it weapons of mass destruction, troop for reinforcements, medical supplies, food or civilians?

  As a trader you can review all know information to formuate a strategy. You can also get snap shots from a distance in the form of economic data released on an ongoing basis from all major economies around the world. These data are clues to the strength or weakness of an economy. However these are only clues piece of the puzzle they are not black and white. They measure specific economic elements collected in a specific way and calculated in a particular method for a period in time.

And because traders in my opinion are irrational and react to good news and bad news in all kinds of ways for all kinds of reason and assumptions. I therefore I find it beneficial to step back from my spy glass and react to the reaction using the news to back my technical Strategy. You cannot see the entire battlefield from your Sniper spy glass you need to take the higher ground and plan you're trades around the bigger picture. 

USDX updated Chart

Target 83.0

Short Live up side for the £ 1.5690/1.5730

Initally plan has worked out Nicely get ready for the next leg down 1.5690/1.5730

Present Post
Test of Now Resistance area 1.5710 B/4 Resuming
Sell off 4hr stochastics in Play to the Short term lived 
upside

Bearish Bias on the EURUSD

Hrly Butter Fly sent on the 13th December 2010  Was finially respected at 2.618 as prices Crashed Back Down from 1.3497
I Have a Bearish Bias on the Euro as strong Bear bars to the dwn side show them selfs to be dominate . As prices consolidate at 1.3240 161.8 exapnsion from  A/1.3497 to B/1.3370  to C/1.3440 price finished at  D/1.3240  161.8 % expansion
(our USDX 5th wave up is still in play. )
A possable reentry to the dwn side would be.
1.3309 /1.3318 which is  just under the 38.2% giving us an 1hrly confluence resistance and also 100DMA line and 1.3334 which is my daily pivot point Resistance which is just under the ABC Drop
stop loss at 1.3377 Target  1.3000 Area


Waite for Over-Brought Enviromnet on hrly Stochastics
 However, 4hr chart AB/CD prices are holding outter trend line to the upside  if Prices move

  back into 1.3302 the we could begin to test the highs again.

EURUSD 1 Hour ABCD Chart

1 Hour ABCD Chart

GBP 4hr Chart

£ is In an range bewtween 1.5845 and 1.5730 a break above 1.5845 we can test 1.6300 Highs

a break below Below 1.5730 1.5710 we could see price extend to 1.5550

Still this depends on on dolla index and how well or how bad it performers.

I see prices rallying on the pound to test highs middle trend line and fallin off  as the 4hrs stochastics signal is now is in  play. we have to waite and see  as bars a still blue finding bids Prices are also above the 100DMA and Middle bollinger bands so the chance of an advance is likely

What is RRR? ANS: Reserve Requirement Ratio

The PBOC raised its reserve requirement ratio by another 50 basis points in late Asian session trade today, but so far the Chinese central bank has not raised its benchmark interest rate sending a wave of relief through the currency market as risk FX rallied on the news. The Aussie was the biggest beneficiary of the night picking up nearly 50 points in gains after an initial dip lower. The pair rose to a session high of .9890 as traders viewed the move by PBOC as a relatively benign measure to contain inflation that is unlikely to hurt growth.

How the Bank Influences an Economy???

by FX360

How the Bank Influences an Economy

The central bank has been described as "the lender of last resort", which means that it is responsible for providing its economy with funds when commercial banks cannot cover a supply shortage. In other words, the central bank prevents the country's banking system from failing. However, the primary goal of central banks is to provide their countries' currencies with price stability by controlling inflation. A central bank also acts as the regulatory authority of a country's monetary policy and is the sole provider and printer of notes and coins in circulation. Time has proved that the central bank can best function in these capacities by remaining independent from government fiscal policy and therefore uninfluenced by the political concerns of any regime. The central bank should also be completely divested of any commercial banking interests.

How the Bank Influences an Economy A central bank can be said to have two main kinds of functions: (1) macroeconomic when regulating inflation and price stability and (2) microeconomic when functioning as a lender of last resort. (For background reading on macroeconomics, see Macroeconomic Analysis.)

Macroeconomic Influences As it is responsible for price stability, the central bank must regulate the level of inflation by controlling money supplies by means of monetary policy. The central bank performs open market transactions that either inject the market with liquidity or absorb extra funds, directly affecting the level of inflation. To increase the amount of money in circulation and decrease the interest rate (cost) for borrowing, the central bank can buy government bonds, bills, or other government-issued notes. This buying can, however, also lead to higher inflation. When it needs to absorb money to reduce inflation, the central bank will sell government bonds on the open market, which increases the interest rate and discourages borrowing. Open market operations are the key means by which a central bank controls inflation, money supply, and price stability. If you'd like to learn more about this subject, see this The Federal Reserve (the Fed) Tutorial.

Microeconomic Influences

The establishment of central banks as lender of last resort has pushed the need for their freedom from commercial banking. A commercial bank offers funds to clients on a first come, first serve basis. If the commercial bank does not have enough liquidity to meet its clients' demands (commercial banks typically do not hold reserves equal to the needs of the entire market), the commercial bank can turn to the central bank to borrow additional funds. This provides the system with stability in an objective way; central banks cannot favor any particular commercial bank. As such, many central banks will hold commercial-bank reserves that are based on a ratio of each commercial bank's deposits. Thus, a central bank may require all commercial banks to keep, for example, a 1:10 reserve/deposit ratio. Enforcing a policy of commercial bank reserves functions as another means to control money supply in the market. Not all central banks, however, require commercial banks to deposit reserves. The United Kingdom, for example, does not have this policy while the United States does.

The rate at which commercial banks and other lending facilities can borrow short-term funds from the central bank is called the discount rate (which is set by the central bank and provides a base rate for interest rates). It has been argued that, for open market transactions to become more efficient, the discount rate should keep the banks from perpetual borrowing, which would disrupt the market's money supply and the central bank's monetary policy. By borrowing too much, the commercial bank will be circulating more money in the system. Use of the discount rate can be restricted by making it unattractive when used repeatedly. (To learn more, read Understanding Microeconomics.)

Transitional Economies

Today developing economies are faced with issues such as the transition from managed to free market economies. The main concern is often controlling inflation. This can lead to the creation of an independent central bank but can take some time, given that many developing nations maintain control over their economies in an effort to retain control of their power. But government intervention, whether direct or indirect through fiscal policy, can stunt central bank development. Unfortunately, many developing nations are faced with civil disorder or war, which can force a government to divert funds away from the development of the economy as a whole. Nonetheless, one factor that seems to be confirmed is that, for a market economy to develop, a stable currency (whether achieved through a fixed or floating exchange rate) is needed. However, the central banks in both industrial and emerging economies are dynamic because there is no guaranteed way to run an economy regardless of its stage of development.

ConclusionCentral banks are responsible for overseeing the monetary system for a nation (or group of nations), along with a wide range of other responsibilities, from overseeing monetary policy to implementing specific goals such as currency stability, low inflation and full employment. The role of the central bank has grown in importance over time, but in U.S., its activities continue to evolve.

by Reem Heakal

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/03/050703.asp

Trend Collapse Strategy For NewBies

http://learnforexlive.com/contents/free-forex-strategy-the-trend-collapse

EURUSD Red Bars Signaling Danger

Side ways wedge Consoildation on 4hrs and 1hrly Time frame to the DWN Side untill we see a break above 4th wave 1.3450 and some blue bars.

10Y Yield 2Y Yield and USDJPY

USD/JPY Continues to Follow U.S. Yields

From the Begining of the year USD/JPY has been tracking U.S yield with an 89% postive correlation with U.S yields. USD/JPY has been lagging just behind the 2 year and 10 year bond yields. which should ajust its self. this suggest that if U.S yield continue to climb USD/JPY could extend to 86.

However, the rise is in yields can not be 100% pegged to real demand. With the year end, large an small investor are booking yr end profits, preserving capital and repositioning. with little news coming out of the US this week may have already put traders into a year-end mentality

Really Informative link for today and Price action

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=plnWtJdeo4w&feature=player_embedded

The dollar was slightly firmer versus other major currencies Thursday morning, ahead of the latest reading on the embattled US jobs market.

 (RTTNews) - The dollar was slightly firmer versus other major currencies Thursday morning, ahead of the latest reading on the embattled US jobs market.
Speculation that China may raise interest rates in order to cool its red-hot economy, along with a downward revision to Greece's third quarter growth figures, prevented risk appetite from taking hold.
The safe haven dollar also held its ground after the  Bank of England voted to keep interest rates unchanged and make no new quantitative easing purchases after its monthly meeting on Thursday, in line with market expectations.
The buck continued to wobble between $1.3200 and $1.3250 against the euro, having shown little direction since hitting a 2-month peak of $1.2960 more than a week ago.
Even with European sovereign debt problems making the euro much less attractive, traders seems reluctant to pour into the dollar amid concerns about US fiscal and monetary policy.
This morning, Fitch downgraded Ireland's debt three notches, but kept a stable rating.
The dollar improved to $1.5745 versus the sterling, up a bit from a nearly three-week low of $1.5840.
Versus the yen, the dollar rose to Y84, just shy of a 3-month high of Y84.39.
The yen was slipping even after Japan said its third quarter gross domestic product grew at an annualized rate of 4.5%, faster than the 3.9% reported in November.
Its economy expanded 1.1% in the third quarter compared sequentially to the previous three months, better than forecasts for a 1.0% increase following the 0.9% gain in the preliminary reading.
Looking ahead, the Labor Department will release its customary jobless claims report for the week ended December 4th at 8:30 a.m. ET. Economists expect claims to come in at 430,000 for the week, slightly lower than 436,000 reported for the previous week.
At 10.00 a.m ET, the Commerce Department will release its wholesale inventories report for October. Economists expect wholesale inventories at the end of October to show a 0.8% increase following an unexpected 1.5% increase in the previous month.

The UK leading economic indicator rose to 105.1 in October from 104.7 in September, the Conference Board said Thursday.

The UK leading economic indicator rose to 105.1 in October from 104.7 in September, the Conference Board said Thursday.
Six of the seven components made positive contributions to the index in October.
Conference Board economist Jean-Claude Manini said  the latest reading suggest that the expected slowdown in the UK economy would be gradual in the short term.
"The financial sector problems in Ireland - to which the United Kingdom has a significant exposure - are a reminder of the persisting downside risks surrounding the outlook for 2011."
The Conference Board leading economic indicator for the UK has been rising since April 2009, though its six-month growth rate has continued to slow in recent months.
Conference Board's coincident economic index inched up to 103.1 from 103. It was unchanged in September.

US dolla Index 5th wave Up

This should help our AUDUSD Dolla strength

AUDUSD Chart waiting for 4hr Stochastic failure to Sell

Looking at AUDUSD from the Daily TimeFrame  We have a Daily 4hr Stochastic Cross.
Prices at present are currrently underneath the 90DMA
If Prices Hold and we can get a Rally to around 0.9854 the we will be condersing a seell prviding we have two back toback time frame conmfirming our Short.
H&S selling the Right Shoulder........
If Prise Continue to fall we will be patient and waite for a good Rally to sell. See Chart below

Directional indicator is neutal at the moment
0.9854 is the 200 on the 4rhs
Price Ranging inbetween the
50% and 38.2% FIBs
From A /1.020 and D/0.955 Dark red Fibs
Weather we will get this Price or not i don't know and wheather prices breaks through B and Previous B?? i don't know so will have to watch and see
4hr chart Coming Up!!!
p.s I'm also watching the dolla index to see wus up!!! :-)

Daily and hrly Possibilities EURUSD in the dayz to come

Daily Looks Bearish to Test 200DMA if 1.3437/ 1.347 is not Broken

However Hrly could shoot up?? what do you think Charts Below

Timeless Trading: USDCHF Daily and 4 HR Chart 2 possablities Dependi...

Timeless Trading: USDCHF Daily and 4 HR Chart 2 possablities Dependi...: "0.9920 Needs to be broken and held for a tes of 1.0010 Other wise we should be heading dwn to test support levels 0.38/0.9811 0.50/0.9761 0...."

USDCHF Daily and 4 HR Chart 2 possablities Depending on Price

0.9920 Needs to be broken and held for a tes of 1.0010
Other wise we should be heading dwn to test support levels
0.38/0.9811
0.50/0.9761
0.62/0.9711
a break of these levels the Bye Bye!!!!!;-) 4hr Chart Below possiable Bearish Gartley

Bearish Garley  Forming if it does not stop at 100% or 127% Expansion

USD EUR and GBP News Up Date

USD: SHORT TERM GAIN, LONG TERM PAIN?

The rally in the U.S. dollar during the North American trading session can be interpreted as a vote of confidence for President Obama’s tax cut deal. It is no secret that the dollar has a very strong relationship with U.S. bond yields and this helps to explain why the greenback managed to extend its recovery against the major currencies. U.S. 10 year bond yields saw its biggest increase since 2009, settling at 3.14 percent, a 6 month high. The rise in bond yields confirms that investors have faith in Obama’s ambitious plan to stimulate the U.S. economy. The only question is whether the rise in dollar is a short term gain that could lead to some long term pain. In order to pay for the extended tax cuts, unemployment benefits and one year reduction in Social Security taxes, the U.S. government will be adding to the national debt, which is already at a record high.   From a credit worthiness perspective, assuming more debt means a weaker fiscal position that should make the dollar less attractive to foreign investors. Yet the dollar has rallied because investors believe that the tax cut could revive the U.S. economy and pave the way to more normal monetary policy.  
President Obama’s Gamble
In other words, President Obama is betting that the tax cuts will spur enough growth to make investors forget about the additional debt required to pay for it. At this fragile point in the U.S. recovery, we believe that Obama is correct in saying that a sudden increase in taxes would be crippling for the U.S. economy. It is not a stretch to predict that the tax cuts will protect the U.S. economy against a deeper slowdown because allowing the tax cuts to expire would basically be akin to reducing stimulus - which America cannot handle at this time. Yet the more important question is whether the cuts will be enough to engineer a recovery that is felt down to the lowest parts of the U.S. economy.   In order to have a good chance of reviving the U.S. recovery, Obama announced more stimulus than most economists had anticipated. In addition to extending unemployment benefits and the Bush tax cuts, he also announced plans to reduce payrolls taxes. In total, this should add approximately $185 billion in stimulus and boost GDP growth by approximately 0.75 percentage points in 2011.   Tax cuts are a better way of stimulating the economy than Quantitative Easing, which is not really an option at this point given the political backlash against QE2. The tax cuts should boost consumer spending next year and hopefully lead to some upside surprises in U.S. data that evolves into a fundamental shift in the outlook for the U.S. economy. This is the gamble that Obama is taking and if he is right, then the dollar’s rally can be sustained but if he is wrong, then the U.S. will be left with only a massive debt burden that will scare off foreign investors. We won’t see the initial results of the tax cuts until the end of the first quarter at the earliest so in the meantime, all investors have left with is the hope that Obama’s plan will work. For the time being, the U.S. is not at risk of a credit downgrade according to rating agency Moody’s despite the near $1 trillion addition in debt and this may be enough to reassure international investors. 

EUR: IRISH VOTE, FAR FROM OVER

The euro weakened against the U.S. dollar despite what is expected to be a successful passage of Ireland’s 2011 budget. The budget that was unveiled today included the toughest belt tightening in the country’s history, with 6 billion in projected spending cuts and tax hikes. The Parliament has approved the first line items up for vote and the plan survived with an 82-77 vote. The margin was slim but Prime Minister Cowen gets to keep his job for the time being. Unfortunately part of the reason why the euro failed to rally despite this news is because the process is far from over. Over the next few months, the budget will face more parliamentary tests with separate votes scheduled for major bills on items such as welfare cuts and the income tax net expansion. The final vote which would put the taxation items into law may not be until February. With one vote down and three more votes to go, a full resolution to Ireland’s woes is far from over. Any hiccups along the way could bring more pain to the euro. Also don’t forget about contagion risks for countries like Spain and Portugal – the threat is alive and will eventually come back to haunt the region.  It also didn’t help that German economic data surprised to the downside. German factory orders rose 1.6 percent in October which represented a rebound from the previous month, but the pickup in demand was smaller than economists had anticipated.   Nonetheless, it is important to note that despite the troubles in countries like Ireland and Portugal, the two largest economies within the Eurozone (Germany and France) is still performing relatively well. Manufacturing activity in Germany hit a 3 month high last month, prompting the Bundesbank to raise its 2010 growth forecast to 3.6 percent, the fastest pace of growth since 1992. We expect tomorrow’s German trade, current account and industrial production numbers to show the same strength. The bifurcated economic recovery is not to be forgotten because when the sovereign debt crisis fades from our memories, the focus will quickly return to growth.  Meanwhile the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in Switzerland held at a 1.5 year low of 3.6 percent in November, to the envy of many countries around the world.  

GBP: HOLDS ONTO GAINS THANKS TO STRONGER DATA

The British pound was the only major currency to outperform the U.S. dollar. Sterling’s remarkable strength can be credited to better than expected economic reports. Even though industrial production fell 0.2 percent in October, manufacturing production rose 0.6 percent, which was the strongest pace of growth since March. The reason why manufacturing production rose and industrial production fell is because of the volatility in mining, quarrying and utility activity. Output increased in 10 out of the 13 sectors tracked by the manufacturing production report. The British Retail Consortium’s Retail Sales monitor also showed signs of stronger consumer spending. According to the report, retail sales rose 2.8 percent in November. The Bank of England is gearing up for a rate hike this week and even though they are not expected to make new any comments related to the economy or monetary policy, the recent improvements in economic data will give them peace of mind. 
by: FX360

GBPUSD LOOKING FOR WEAKNESS

ABCD Top 161.8% expansion
elwave 3 wave dwn 4th wave up remember price should not rise above 1 wave prices @1.5791 looking for a sell signal

If there's no break or weakness we shall revisit the short else will keeping alert

30min Bearish Buterfly EUR/USD @ 1.3418 and stop @ 1.3470

Wacthing Price if there is a failure or dolla index starts to pick we could catch some pip

let watch and see

FX up and coming events

FX Upcoming
CurrencyGMTESTReleaseExpectedPrior
CAD13:009:00Overnight Rate1.00%1.00%
USD14:0010:00IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism48.3 46.7
USD19:0015:00Consumer Credit m/m-0.9B2.1B

News

After hitting some turbulence during Asian session  caused by rumors of potential Chinese rate hike, high beta currencies rallied in early morning European trade boosted by better UK economic data and expectations that Ireland would pass its austerity budget making it eligible for bailout funds from EU.  In Asia today, equities fell and USD/JPY hit a session low of 82.35 after the official China Securities Journal reported that China may raise its interest rates again over the weekend.  Last week PBOC officials stated that they were switching to a “prudent” monetary policy instead of earlier  “loose” monetary policy stance perhaps in preparation of this move.
China has seen its food price inflation explode over the past several months leading many analysts to conclude that the country has no choice but to hike rates in order to control the growing price pressures in the system. The  rate hike if it were to occur could dampen growth in China but investors quickly shrugged off those concerns and rallied equities of their lows helping high beta currencies to recover.
In Australia the RBA kept rates on hold at 4.75% but the accompanying statement was not as dovish as the market had feared so the Aussie rallied to 9960 boosted surging commodity prices.  As we noted earlier,” This focus on employment growth is likely to be key to Aussie’s direction in the near term. This  Wednesday, the market will get a look at November’s employment data with consensus calls for another  21K new jobs. If employment data continues to expand at a healthy pace,  expectations  for another 25bp  rate hike in Q1 of 2011 are likely to rise helping to fuel further increases in the pair. However, if labor demand cools considerably, Aussie’s recent rally is likely to hit a brick wall with AUD/USD  failing at parity once again as traders begin to price in a much more significant slowdown in Australian growth as we approach 2011.”
Meanwhile data from both Germany and UK was mixed but generally bullish as UK Manufacturing Production rose by 0.6%  but was somewhat offset by drop in Industrial Production of -0.2% which was dragged lower by declines in oil and mining extraction. Cable rose to 1.5800 in the aftermath of the release and hovered near that level into the North American open.  In Germany, factory orders saw a strong rebound  rising 1.6% but that was slightly less that 1.9% eyed by the market. The EUR/USD rose to a high of 1.3396 before retreating to 1.3360 as traders awaited the outcome of the Irish budget vote.
With no US data on the calendar price action in the EUR/USD is likely to be driven by events on the other side of the Atlantic as Irish budget votes is set for 15:45GMT. With several independent lawmakers tipping their support for the austerity budget expectations are that it will be ratified. The news should provide some support for the EUR/USD as sovereign debt concerns begin to ease and the pair could make another run at 1.3400 level as the day progresses.

selling Eur/usd light @ 1.3315

High Hrly Stochastics

Choppy Bulls on the way Up

Choppy Bulls on the way Up
on our Plan

Long Term BULLISH US Dolla Index

Practice Pure Patients Produces Pure Profit

Selling  The GBP/USD @ 1.5730 and 1.5716 selling

Selling The EURUSD @ 1.3340 and 1.3343

with High Stochastic Only
waiting for the AUD/USD High Stochastics only

charts to follow