USDCAD 4 UR EYES ONLY

Tradervox (Dublin) - The Canadian economy posted jobs data today. The Canadian economy added an additional of 58.2k jobs (expected 10k) versus the previous 82.3k. This better than expected jobs data, however failed to bring down the unemployment rate. In fact the unemployment rate rose to 7.3% from previous 7.2%.

On the one hour chart the jobs data resulted in 2 big bearish candles bringing the USD/CAD pair to 0.99565. The pair found support at this level preventing it from further falls.

The US economy posted the producer price index and University of Michigan consumer confidence. The producer price index fell to a seasonally adjusted value of -0.2%. The fall in the producer price index can be attributed to the fall in the crude prices bringing down the energy costs. This fall in the producer prices will likely reflect in the Wholesale price index and filter down into the Consumer Price index, thereby bringing down the inflation. The fall in the inflation will ease the pressure on the Federal Reserve and the Federal Reserve can move ahead with its Quantitative Easing policy should the economy be affected from the slowing growth due to recession fears in the Euro zone. The Consumer confidence in the US rose from the previous value of 76.4 to 77.8 beating analyst’s expectations.

The USD/CAD has slightly recovered from the strong selling seen after the Canadian employment data. The recovery in the USD/CAD is not very strong and is a market reaction to the better than expected consumer confidence and producer price index data.

The USD/CAD is currently trading around the 0.998 level. The trend is in favor of the bears with bearish volatility building up. However the bearish trend is not very strong to cause a major fall in the pair. This is due to a renewed buying interest in the market due to better than expected US fundamentals. Additionally the crude markets are also not in favor of the Canadian dollar and this is damping the outlook of the bears in the USD/CAD.

The USD/CAD is likely to close the week around the 0.99 levels with slight bullishness dominating the trade.

A break of the 100602 has brought us to the highs @ 1.02946 which is also the highs of december 22 2011
coupled with a bearisg Gartley if the Resisitance holds @ 1.02780 the a major pull back and shift in trend could occur
With not so great US data this trade idea could be possiable

USD

Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM)

-0.6%

0.9%

-0.8%

(Advertisement) Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) <> Actual -0.6% Forecast 0.9% Previous -0.8% Core Durable Goods Orders measures the change in the total value of new orders for long lasting manufactured goods, excluding transportation items. Because aircraft orders are very volatile, the core number gives a better gauge of ordering trends. A higher reading indicates increased manufacturing activity. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD. Details Chart History Importance: High Source Of Report: Census Bureau Release URL: http://www.census.gov/ftp/pub/indicator/www/m3/ <> More

08:30

USD

Durable Goods Orders (MoM)

0.2%

0.5%

-3.7%

(Advertisement) Durable Goods Orders (MoM) <> Actual 0.2% Forecast 0.5% Previous -3.7% Durable Goods Orders measures the change in the total value of new orders for long lasting manufactured goods, including transportation items. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD. Details Chart History Importance: Medium Source Of Report: Census Bureau Release URL: http://www.census.gov/ftp/pub/indicator/www/m3/ <> More

08:30

USD

Initial Jobless Claims

370K

370K

372K

(Advertisement) Initial Jobless Claims <> Actual 370K Forecast 370K Previous 372K Initial Jobless Claims measures the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. This is the earliest U.S. economic data, but the market impact varies from week to week. A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD. Details Chart History Importance: High Source Of Report: Department of Labor Release URL: http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/ui/current.htm <> More

08:30

CAD

Corporate Profits (QoQ)

0.1%

9.0%

(Advertisement) Corporate Profits (QoQ) <> Actual 0.1% Forecast Previous 9.0% Corporate Profits measures the change in the total value of profits earned by corporations. This data is released quarterly, around 55 days after the quarter ends. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the CAD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the CAD. Details Chart History Importance: Low Source Of Report: Statistics Canada Release URL: http://www.statcan.gc.ca/release-diffusion/2012-eng.htm#a25 <> More

08:30

USD

Continuing Jobless Claims

3260K

3250K

3289K

i've sold already  @ 1.0256  stop @ 1.0315 Target all they way back down to the low ambitions but still possiable