Gold critical area Payday Friday

Gold has fallen to its lowest level Since 2010 this morning to under 1,200
1.200 is what it cost most miners to produce an ounce of Gold 
European markets extended gains to a third session yesterday 
Greece is again in the spotlight after the national bank of Greece shares fell 24%

USDJPY is the market just resting for another push or is more down side in play

 

Daily USDJPY 

Keeping  a close eye on the USDJPY as the Corrective Move to the upside may be coming to
 and End as Price action  hesitates with a number of doji's 97.56 i've marked as an initial break here will indicate the Andrews pitch fork downside momentum is under way


on the 4hr time frame I've found an A-B-C Pattern A @ 98.66 B 96.95 @  C @ 98.23
if USDJPY continues to fall 96.95 break should complete pattern
However a break of the trigger Line marked out will suggest more upside potential to test the highs 98.66/100.17 /103

GBPUSD ahead of GDP

Daily 

4hrs

     

The sterling remained apathetic to the BoE’s Financial Stability Report and Osborne’s Spending Review, while it seems to be more affected by MPC’s Miles, who advocated for further easing. The pound is also taking the hit after dovish comments by ECB’s Draghi. Camilla Sutton, Strategist at Scotiabank noted that the outlook on the pair remains bearish in the short term, adding “with most signals in sell territory and spot suggesting building downside momentum. In addition, spot has broken through the 50-day MA of 1.5387 and now flirting with a break of the 100-day MA at 1.5312. We expect further near-term weakness with a test down to 1.5200 in the near-term”. Recall that the bank holds a year-end target of 1.45 for GBP/USD.

GBP/USD critical levels

The pair is down 0.39%  immediate support at 1.5300 (psychological level) ahead of 1.5293 (50% of 1.4832-1.5753) and then 1.5290 (low Jun.5). 

   1hrly 

Economic Data Could see the a relief rally in the £ see below

08:30	UK	GBP	BOE Credit Conditions Survey (Q2)	1
08:30	UK	GBP	Current Account (Q1)	2		£-11.800B	£-14.037B
08:30	UK	GBP	Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (Q1)	3		0.3%	0.3%
08:30	UK	GBP	Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (Q1)	3		0.6%	0.6%
08:30	UK	GBP	Total Business Investment (YoY) (Q1)	2
08:30	UK	GBP	Total Business Investment (QoQ) (Q1)	1		-0.4%	-0.8%

Eur/usd Wkly, Daily 4hrs, Hrly Chart Update Comment and Eur Consumer Confidence Numbers later today

              

Eur/usd Wkly
June 26, 2013 – EUR/USD (daily chart below) has dropped down to key support around the major 1.3000 figure, establishing a new 3-week low for the currency pair. Today’s drop continues the dramatic decline that has been in place since price turned bearish after reaching up to 1.3400-area resistance one week ago. Having just reached down

Daily TF

to 1.3000 on a sharp downside move, the pair is now at a critical price juncture. Continued bearish momentum could be expected as the pair trades below 1.3000, with a clear downside objective around the 1.2800 support area, last hit in mid-May. A subsequent move below 1.2800 would confirm a bearish continuation, with further downside objectives around 1.2650 and then 1.2450. Within the context of the current down trend, strong upside resistance continues to reside around the 1.3150 area, to which the pair retraced back up and respected on Tuesday.

4hrs TF

a Break of 1.30061 Wkly support 1 should keep the bears in control targeting 1.2950 then 1,2893

        1hrly TF

           

However i am expecting the bulls to put up a little fight as the Dollar index reaches it Highs and if you note the dollar index is above the 55 daily moving indicating a sentiment shift for dollar strength.so the perfect scenario   would be to wait for a really to sell @ 1,3047 near the falling trend line for a continued decline, however a break of this area could give the bulls some encouragement.

There are aa few FOMC voters speaking tomorrow and

The  Eurozone and U.S. calendar, looks like there can be some great moves in the next 24 hours   and prove to be vital for the euro. 

A large part of the sell-off in the EUR/USD from its high of 1.34 on June 19th to its low of 1.2985 today was driven by re-pricing of FOMC expectations which means tomorrow's speeches by FOMC voters Dudley and Powell are extremely important. All 3 of these members lean towards a more dovish monetary policy stance and if they support Bernanke's view that asset purchases should be tapered this year, the EUR/USD could drop to its next level of support at 1.2935 as the trader dive in to the dollar and push the weakening euro towards  possibly to 1.2893 (although we feel that losses should be contained to that level). 

However if any of these 2 FOMC voters express  second thoughts or reservations about Bernanke's timing on reducing asset purchases, the EUR/USD could make its way back up to 1.31.

Eurusd calender 

German unemployment and Eurozone confidence numbers are also scheduled for release tomorrow and the outcome of these reports will impact the market's expectations for ECB policy and in turn the euro. If the data is good, then the central bank's threat to increase stimulus will fall on deaf ears.  Just this morning ECB President Draghi reminded everyone that the central bank stands ready to act if necessary.  Unfortunately based on the latest PMI numbers, labor market conditions most likely deteriorated in the month of June and if the data is weak, confirming that ECB policy will trail far behind the Fed, the euro could find itself trading closer to 1.29. In terms of confidence, it will be tough call since there has been both strength and weakness in the latest IFO and ZEW surveys.  These numbers shouldn't be as important as German unemployment.

06:00	DE	EUR	Import Price Index (YoY) (May)	1		-2.8%	-3.2%
06:45	FR	EUR	Consumer Confidence (Jun)	1		81	79
07:00	ES	EUR	HICP (YoY) (Jun)Preliminar	1		2.1%	1.8%
07:00	ES	EUR	Retail Sales (YoY) (May)	1			-4.7%
07:55	DE	EUR	Unemployment Change (Jun)	3		8K	21K
07:55	DE	EUR	Unemployment Rate s.a. (Jun)	3		6.9%	6.9%

EURCAD Daily

Daily

Apple Daily 4hrs 1hrly

Daily

By Mani) Great tech companies create and lead in new categories. Apple, Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) has created or redefined product categories four times with the Mac, iPod, iPhone, and iPad—an amazing record.

With smartphone market maturing, profitability and sales depend on continued innovation Although Apple says that innovation is in its DNA, creating new categories is difficult. Finding large opportunities to provide growth following the unique success of the iPhone appears nearly impossible.

Apple's patent applications are one indication of the company's potential product plans, but they are not perfect predictors. Patent applications are published about 18 months after the application.

By looking at Apple's patent filings, one could see that the Cupertino-based company would be a big beneficiary of potential evolution in the payment space.

"Our view has been that Apple's design focus would produce an e-wallet that is the easiest to use, most streamlined, and best integrated product in the market," UBS analyst Steven Milunovich wrote in a note to clients.

Apple's patent US20130124319A1 is related to "Payment Options Based On Location." Apple has also filed related patents with the US Patent office including US8255323 Motion Based Payment Confirmation and others related to NFC "Shopping" in 2010. All these indicates that Apple may develop a robust payments application that features a smart, multi-layered menu system that is context-sensitive and incorporates geotracking.

With Passbook, it seems Apple is beginning the process of integrating wallet functionality into its operating system in advance of the next payments wave. NFC will be a central element as could some sort of biometric authentication.

Apple's often-discussed Authentec acquisition could enable mass adoption of mobile payments using NFC-enabled mobile phones (i.e., next generation iPhones with NFC radios and secure elements) and biometrics (fingerprint reader) to enable highly secure dual-factor authenticated mobile payment transactions.

"These phones could serve as a secure substitute for traditional card-based POS transactions and remove higher-risk/higherpriced "card not present" transactions from the mobile payments ecosystem," Milunovich said.

Recall how recent security exploits involving the iPhone's screen lock undermined trust in the company's security capabilities and drew focus to Apple's future in mobile payments.

"By linking biometric authentication to mobile payments on the iPhone, Apple could leverage its existing iTunes user base of more than 500 million users and its emerging Passbook application to make a rapid impact in payments," the analyst said.

Meanwhile, Apple may not be the first to integrate either NFC or fingerprint technology onto a mobile device as the Google Nexus S, released in 2010, was the first to enable NFC payments; and Fujitsu's AES1710 mobile phone released in 2008 offered AuthenTec's fingerprint sensor security.

Apple may be the first to marry one of the most secure authentication methods available (biometrics/fingerprints) with one of the most secure ways to authenticate a payment transaction (NFC plus something else as a dual factor—just like Chip and PIN).

As noted above, one key competitive differentiator for Apple is its current iTunes installed base of 500 million plus iTunes accounts and 250 million iPhones, which makes rolling out additional features and functionality considerably easier.

"With regard to payments, we believe Apple will not try to displace the existing payment networks, since it already likely pays relatively low interchange and network fees given the sheer volume of purchases it brings to the networks (and which are batched multiple times per day to further lower transaction costs), and payments are not a core Apple competency," Milunovich noted.

Apple likely is more interested in collecting detailed customer data that can be used for advertising, tracking, target marketing, or some other future function that has not yet become apparent. However, it may try to bring a robust ecosystem to merge all the features necessary for a smart payment application.

EurJpy Daily & 4hr Levels

Daily

4hrs

watch Levels

GBPUSD Daily and 1hrly Out Look With Sniper Zones updated

The September British Pound closed higher due to short covering on Monday as it consolidated some of the decline off June's high but remains below the 21-day moving average crossing at 1.5454. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastic and the RSI remain bearish signalling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends last week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 1.5264 is the next downside target. Closes above the 8-day moving average crossing at 1.5580 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 8-day moving average crossing at 1.5497 falling trend line . Second resistance is last Monday's high crossing at 1.5545 50% fib followed by  1.5607. First support is today's low crossing at 1.5409. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1.5305.

Daily 24/06/2013

1. CPI: Tuesday, 8:30. CPI is considered the most important inflation indicator, and is used by the BOE to set the inflation target.

After two straight readings with gains of 2.8%, the index dropped to 2.4% in the previous reading. The estimate for June release stands at 2.6%.

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The pound enjoyed another good week, climbing close to two cents against the US dollar. GBP/USD closed at 1.5737. This week’s major events include CPI and Retail Sales. Here is an outlook of the events and an updated technical analysis for GBP/USD.

Both UK and US numbers were a mix last week. In the UK, Manufacturing Production missed the estimate but unemployment figures dropped nicely. US retail sales and unemployment numbers were positive, but consumer confidence fell below expectations. The pound took advantage of broad dollar weakness and posted strong gains, as the British currency pushed above the 1.57 line, its highest level since February.

Updates:

• A mild hawkish change? 4 scenarios for the Fed decision - FOMC preview
• Cable is struggling to maintain the 1.57 handle. Rightmove HPI rose by 1.2%, less than the previous month.
• British inflation numbers matched the estimates, for the most part. CPI, the key inflation indicator, came at 2.7%, edging out the estimate of 2.6%. PPI was the only disappointment, posting a third straight decline, as it dropped 0.3%. The estimate stood at 0.1%.
• The pound has dropped sharply, as GBP/USD crashed below the 1.56 line.
• The BOE will release the MPC Meeting Minutes on Wednesday.
• The G8 wrapped up a meeting in Northern Ireland, and the leaders announced that negotiations on a EU-US free trade pact would commence shortly.
• There was no change in the voting breakdown for the interest rate and asset purchase decisions. The vote to maintain interest rates was 9-0, while the vote on asset purchases was 6-3, with outgoing Governor Mervyn King and two other policymakers voting to increase QE to GBP $400 billion.
• BOE Governor Mervyn King will speak in London.
• GBP/USD is trading in the mid-1.55 range.
• The Fed said that downside risk have diminished - the US dollar rises across the board, and GBP/USD falls under 1.55.
• UK Retail Sales rebounded nicely, jumping 2.1%. This easily beat the estimate of 0.8%.
• CBI Industrial Orders remains bogged down, posting a reading of -18 points.
• BOE Executive Director Paul Fisher testifies before the Treasury Select Committee in London.
• Public Sector Net Borrowing will be released on Friday. The markets are braced for a large increase in the deficit.
• The pound has stabilized after sharp losses against the US dollar. GBP/USD was trading in the high-1.54 range.
• Public Sector Borrowing posted a larger deficit than the previous release. The indicator came in at GBP 10.5 billion, easily beating the estimate of GBP 12.7 billion.
• The pound has stabilized after sharp drops on Wednesday. GBP/USD was trading in the high-1.54 range, after testing the 1.55 level.

1. Rightmove HPI: Sunday, 23:01. This housing inflation indicator provides a snapshot of activity in the UK housing sector. The index has been quite steady, posting gains of 2.1% in the past two releases.
2. CPI: Tuesday, 8:30. CPI is considered the most important inflation indicator, and is used by the BOE to set the inflation target. After two straight readings with gains of 2.8%, the index dropped to 2.4% in the previous reading. The estimate for June release stands at 2.6%.
3. PPI Input: Tuesday, 8:30. This inflation index has been quite volatile, making accurate estimates a tricky task. The May release posted a sharp drop of 2.3%. The markets are expecting a turnaround for the June release, with an estimate of a modest gain of 0.1%.
4. RPI: Tuesday, 8:30. RPI is another important measure of consumer inflation, but also includes house costs, unlike CPI. The index dropped to 2.9% in the previous reading, the first time it fell below the 3% level since October 2012. The estimate for the upcoming reading stands at 3.1%.
5. Inflation Report Hearings: Tuesday, 9:00. The BOE Governor and several MPC members will testify before the Parliament Treasury Committee on inflation and economic conditions in the UK. The hearings can affect the movement of GBP/USD.
6. BOE MPC Meeting Minutes: Wednesday, 8:30. The minutes provide a detailed record of the most recent Monetary Policy Committee meeting. Analysts are especially interested in the breakdown of the vote on the interest rate and asset purchase decisions, and an unexpected voting result can cause market volatility.
7. Retail Sales: Thursday, 8:30. Retail Sales is one of the most important consumer indicators, and an unexpected reading can impact on the direction of GBP/USD. The indicator has not looked sharp lately, posting declines in four of the past five releases, including a 1.3% drop in the previous reading. The markets are expecting a rebound in June, with an estimate of a 0.8% gain.
8. CBI Industrial Order Expectations: Thursday, 10:00. This manufacturing indicator remains mired deep in negative territory. This points to ongoing weakness in the UK manufacturing sector. The estimate for the June reading stands at -15 points, which would be an improvement from the previous reading of -20 points.
9. Public Sector Net Borrowing: Friday, 8:30. Public Sector Net Borrowing has not produced a surplus since the February reading. The May release posted a sharply lower deficit of 8.0 billion pounds, but the markets are expecting a weak release for June, with an estimate of a deficit of 13.5 billion pounds.