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John James Harris - Freeman of England

Freeman on the Land UK The Law, Statutes, and Police 2 of 3.mp4

Freeman on the Land UK The Law, Statutes, and Police 1 of 3.mp4

svie morton

Intelligence to Formulate a Trading strategy

Intelligence to Formulate a Trading strategy. To formulate a strategy in war, sharp Snipers 1st analyse their enemies stregenth and weaknesses-such as its ability to re-enforce, call for back up establish its forces and defend its position as necessary.

The best way to gather information you would agree is to get constant data from the field. Snap shots from a high attitude giving signs, feed back from the trenches. but they are only clues. For example a convoy of trucks is passing through but you don't know what they are carrying inside them. Is it weapons of mass destruction, troop for reinforcements, medical supplies, food or civilians?

  As a trader you can review all know information to formuate a strategy. You can also get snap shots from a distance in the form of economic data released on an ongoing basis from all major economies around the world. These data are clues to the strength or weakness of an economy. However these are only clues piece of the puzzle they are not black and white. They measure specific economic elements collected in a specific way and calculated in a particular method for a period in time.

And because traders in my opinion are irrational and react to good news and bad news in all kinds of ways for all kinds of reason and assumptions. I therefore I find it beneficial to step back from my spy glass and react to the reaction using the news to back my technical Strategy. You cannot see the entire battlefield from your Sniper spy glass you need to take the higher ground and plan you're trades around the bigger picture. 

USDX updated Chart

Target 83.0

Short Live up side for the £ 1.5690/1.5730

Initally plan has worked out Nicely get ready for the next leg down 1.5690/1.5730

Present Post
Test of Now Resistance area 1.5710 B/4 Resuming
Sell off 4hr stochastics in Play to the Short term lived 
upside

Bearish Bias on the EURUSD

Hrly Butter Fly sent on the 13th December 2010  Was finially respected at 2.618 as prices Crashed Back Down from 1.3497
I Have a Bearish Bias on the Euro as strong Bear bars to the dwn side show them selfs to be dominate . As prices consolidate at 1.3240 161.8 exapnsion from  A/1.3497 to B/1.3370  to C/1.3440 price finished at  D/1.3240  161.8 % expansion
(our USDX 5th wave up is still in play. )
A possable reentry to the dwn side would be.
1.3309 /1.3318 which is  just under the 38.2% giving us an 1hrly confluence resistance and also 100DMA line and 1.3334 which is my daily pivot point Resistance which is just under the ABC Drop
stop loss at 1.3377 Target  1.3000 Area


Waite for Over-Brought Enviromnet on hrly Stochastics
 However, 4hr chart AB/CD prices are holding outter trend line to the upside  if Prices move

  back into 1.3302 the we could begin to test the highs again.

EURUSD 1 Hour ABCD Chart

1 Hour ABCD Chart

GBP 4hr Chart

£ is In an range bewtween 1.5845 and 1.5730 a break above 1.5845 we can test 1.6300 Highs

a break below Below 1.5730 1.5710 we could see price extend to 1.5550

Still this depends on on dolla index and how well or how bad it performers.

I see prices rallying on the pound to test highs middle trend line and fallin off  as the 4hrs stochastics signal is now is in  play. we have to waite and see  as bars a still blue finding bids Prices are also above the 100DMA and Middle bollinger bands so the chance of an advance is likely

What is RRR? ANS: Reserve Requirement Ratio

The PBOC raised its reserve requirement ratio by another 50 basis points in late Asian session trade today, but so far the Chinese central bank has not raised its benchmark interest rate sending a wave of relief through the currency market as risk FX rallied on the news. The Aussie was the biggest beneficiary of the night picking up nearly 50 points in gains after an initial dip lower. The pair rose to a session high of .9890 as traders viewed the move by PBOC as a relatively benign measure to contain inflation that is unlikely to hurt growth.

How the Bank Influences an Economy???

by FX360

How the Bank Influences an Economy

The central bank has been described as "the lender of last resort", which means that it is responsible for providing its economy with funds when commercial banks cannot cover a supply shortage. In other words, the central bank prevents the country's banking system from failing. However, the primary goal of central banks is to provide their countries' currencies with price stability by controlling inflation. A central bank also acts as the regulatory authority of a country's monetary policy and is the sole provider and printer of notes and coins in circulation. Time has proved that the central bank can best function in these capacities by remaining independent from government fiscal policy and therefore uninfluenced by the political concerns of any regime. The central bank should also be completely divested of any commercial banking interests.

How the Bank Influences an Economy A central bank can be said to have two main kinds of functions: (1) macroeconomic when regulating inflation and price stability and (2) microeconomic when functioning as a lender of last resort. (For background reading on macroeconomics, see Macroeconomic Analysis.)

Macroeconomic Influences As it is responsible for price stability, the central bank must regulate the level of inflation by controlling money supplies by means of monetary policy. The central bank performs open market transactions that either inject the market with liquidity or absorb extra funds, directly affecting the level of inflation. To increase the amount of money in circulation and decrease the interest rate (cost) for borrowing, the central bank can buy government bonds, bills, or other government-issued notes. This buying can, however, also lead to higher inflation. When it needs to absorb money to reduce inflation, the central bank will sell government bonds on the open market, which increases the interest rate and discourages borrowing. Open market operations are the key means by which a central bank controls inflation, money supply, and price stability. If you'd like to learn more about this subject, see this The Federal Reserve (the Fed) Tutorial.

Microeconomic Influences

The establishment of central banks as lender of last resort has pushed the need for their freedom from commercial banking. A commercial bank offers funds to clients on a first come, first serve basis. If the commercial bank does not have enough liquidity to meet its clients' demands (commercial banks typically do not hold reserves equal to the needs of the entire market), the commercial bank can turn to the central bank to borrow additional funds. This provides the system with stability in an objective way; central banks cannot favor any particular commercial bank. As such, many central banks will hold commercial-bank reserves that are based on a ratio of each commercial bank's deposits. Thus, a central bank may require all commercial banks to keep, for example, a 1:10 reserve/deposit ratio. Enforcing a policy of commercial bank reserves functions as another means to control money supply in the market. Not all central banks, however, require commercial banks to deposit reserves. The United Kingdom, for example, does not have this policy while the United States does.

The rate at which commercial banks and other lending facilities can borrow short-term funds from the central bank is called the discount rate (which is set by the central bank and provides a base rate for interest rates). It has been argued that, for open market transactions to become more efficient, the discount rate should keep the banks from perpetual borrowing, which would disrupt the market's money supply and the central bank's monetary policy. By borrowing too much, the commercial bank will be circulating more money in the system. Use of the discount rate can be restricted by making it unattractive when used repeatedly. (To learn more, read Understanding Microeconomics.)

Transitional Economies

Today developing economies are faced with issues such as the transition from managed to free market economies. The main concern is often controlling inflation. This can lead to the creation of an independent central bank but can take some time, given that many developing nations maintain control over their economies in an effort to retain control of their power. But government intervention, whether direct or indirect through fiscal policy, can stunt central bank development. Unfortunately, many developing nations are faced with civil disorder or war, which can force a government to divert funds away from the development of the economy as a whole. Nonetheless, one factor that seems to be confirmed is that, for a market economy to develop, a stable currency (whether achieved through a fixed or floating exchange rate) is needed. However, the central banks in both industrial and emerging economies are dynamic because there is no guaranteed way to run an economy regardless of its stage of development.

ConclusionCentral banks are responsible for overseeing the monetary system for a nation (or group of nations), along with a wide range of other responsibilities, from overseeing monetary policy to implementing specific goals such as currency stability, low inflation and full employment. The role of the central bank has grown in importance over time, but in U.S., its activities continue to evolve.

by Reem Heakal

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/03/050703.asp

Trend Collapse Strategy For NewBies

http://learnforexlive.com/contents/free-forex-strategy-the-trend-collapse

EURUSD Red Bars Signaling Danger

Side ways wedge Consoildation on 4hrs and 1hrly Time frame to the DWN Side untill we see a break above 4th wave 1.3450 and some blue bars.

10Y Yield 2Y Yield and USDJPY

USD/JPY Continues to Follow U.S. Yields

From the Begining of the year USD/JPY has been tracking U.S yield with an 89% postive correlation with U.S yields. USD/JPY has been lagging just behind the 2 year and 10 year bond yields. which should ajust its self. this suggest that if U.S yield continue to climb USD/JPY could extend to 86.

However, the rise is in yields can not be 100% pegged to real demand. With the year end, large an small investor are booking yr end profits, preserving capital and repositioning. with little news coming out of the US this week may have already put traders into a year-end mentality

Really Informative link for today and Price action

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=plnWtJdeo4w&feature=player_embedded

The dollar was slightly firmer versus other major currencies Thursday morning, ahead of the latest reading on the embattled US jobs market.

 (RTTNews) - The dollar was slightly firmer versus other major currencies Thursday morning, ahead of the latest reading on the embattled US jobs market.
Speculation that China may raise interest rates in order to cool its red-hot economy, along with a downward revision to Greece's third quarter growth figures, prevented risk appetite from taking hold.
The safe haven dollar also held its ground after the  Bank of England voted to keep interest rates unchanged and make no new quantitative easing purchases after its monthly meeting on Thursday, in line with market expectations.
The buck continued to wobble between $1.3200 and $1.3250 against the euro, having shown little direction since hitting a 2-month peak of $1.2960 more than a week ago.
Even with European sovereign debt problems making the euro much less attractive, traders seems reluctant to pour into the dollar amid concerns about US fiscal and monetary policy.
This morning, Fitch downgraded Ireland's debt three notches, but kept a stable rating.
The dollar improved to $1.5745 versus the sterling, up a bit from a nearly three-week low of $1.5840.
Versus the yen, the dollar rose to Y84, just shy of a 3-month high of Y84.39.
The yen was slipping even after Japan said its third quarter gross domestic product grew at an annualized rate of 4.5%, faster than the 3.9% reported in November.
Its economy expanded 1.1% in the third quarter compared sequentially to the previous three months, better than forecasts for a 1.0% increase following the 0.9% gain in the preliminary reading.
Looking ahead, the Labor Department will release its customary jobless claims report for the week ended December 4th at 8:30 a.m. ET. Economists expect claims to come in at 430,000 for the week, slightly lower than 436,000 reported for the previous week.
At 10.00 a.m ET, the Commerce Department will release its wholesale inventories report for October. Economists expect wholesale inventories at the end of October to show a 0.8% increase following an unexpected 1.5% increase in the previous month.

The UK leading economic indicator rose to 105.1 in October from 104.7 in September, the Conference Board said Thursday.

The UK leading economic indicator rose to 105.1 in October from 104.7 in September, the Conference Board said Thursday.
Six of the seven components made positive contributions to the index in October.
Conference Board economist Jean-Claude Manini said  the latest reading suggest that the expected slowdown in the UK economy would be gradual in the short term.
"The financial sector problems in Ireland - to which the United Kingdom has a significant exposure - are a reminder of the persisting downside risks surrounding the outlook for 2011."
The Conference Board leading economic indicator for the UK has been rising since April 2009, though its six-month growth rate has continued to slow in recent months.
Conference Board's coincident economic index inched up to 103.1 from 103. It was unchanged in September.

US dolla Index 5th wave Up

This should help our AUDUSD Dolla strength

AUDUSD Chart waiting for 4hr Stochastic failure to Sell

Looking at AUDUSD from the Daily TimeFrame  We have a Daily 4hr Stochastic Cross.
Prices at present are currrently underneath the 90DMA
If Prices Hold and we can get a Rally to around 0.9854 the we will be condersing a seell prviding we have two back toback time frame conmfirming our Short.
H&S selling the Right Shoulder........
If Prise Continue to fall we will be patient and waite for a good Rally to sell. See Chart below

Directional indicator is neutal at the moment
0.9854 is the 200 on the 4rhs
Price Ranging inbetween the
50% and 38.2% FIBs
From A /1.020 and D/0.955 Dark red Fibs
Weather we will get this Price or not i don't know and wheather prices breaks through B and Previous B?? i don't know so will have to watch and see
4hr chart Coming Up!!!
p.s I'm also watching the dolla index to see wus up!!! :-)

Daily and hrly Possibilities EURUSD in the dayz to come

Daily Looks Bearish to Test 200DMA if 1.3437/ 1.347 is not Broken

However Hrly could shoot up?? what do you think Charts Below

Timeless Trading: USDCHF Daily and 4 HR Chart 2 possablities Dependi...

Timeless Trading: USDCHF Daily and 4 HR Chart 2 possablities Dependi...: "0.9920 Needs to be broken and held for a tes of 1.0010 Other wise we should be heading dwn to test support levels 0.38/0.9811 0.50/0.9761 0...."

USDCHF Daily and 4 HR Chart 2 possablities Depending on Price

0.9920 Needs to be broken and held for a tes of 1.0010
Other wise we should be heading dwn to test support levels
0.38/0.9811
0.50/0.9761
0.62/0.9711
a break of these levels the Bye Bye!!!!!;-) 4hr Chart Below possiable Bearish Gartley

Bearish Garley  Forming if it does not stop at 100% or 127% Expansion

USD EUR and GBP News Up Date

USD: SHORT TERM GAIN, LONG TERM PAIN?

The rally in the U.S. dollar during the North American trading session can be interpreted as a vote of confidence for President Obama’s tax cut deal. It is no secret that the dollar has a very strong relationship with U.S. bond yields and this helps to explain why the greenback managed to extend its recovery against the major currencies. U.S. 10 year bond yields saw its biggest increase since 2009, settling at 3.14 percent, a 6 month high. The rise in bond yields confirms that investors have faith in Obama’s ambitious plan to stimulate the U.S. economy. The only question is whether the rise in dollar is a short term gain that could lead to some long term pain. In order to pay for the extended tax cuts, unemployment benefits and one year reduction in Social Security taxes, the U.S. government will be adding to the national debt, which is already at a record high.   From a credit worthiness perspective, assuming more debt means a weaker fiscal position that should make the dollar less attractive to foreign investors. Yet the dollar has rallied because investors believe that the tax cut could revive the U.S. economy and pave the way to more normal monetary policy.  
President Obama’s Gamble
In other words, President Obama is betting that the tax cuts will spur enough growth to make investors forget about the additional debt required to pay for it. At this fragile point in the U.S. recovery, we believe that Obama is correct in saying that a sudden increase in taxes would be crippling for the U.S. economy. It is not a stretch to predict that the tax cuts will protect the U.S. economy against a deeper slowdown because allowing the tax cuts to expire would basically be akin to reducing stimulus - which America cannot handle at this time. Yet the more important question is whether the cuts will be enough to engineer a recovery that is felt down to the lowest parts of the U.S. economy.   In order to have a good chance of reviving the U.S. recovery, Obama announced more stimulus than most economists had anticipated. In addition to extending unemployment benefits and the Bush tax cuts, he also announced plans to reduce payrolls taxes. In total, this should add approximately $185 billion in stimulus and boost GDP growth by approximately 0.75 percentage points in 2011.   Tax cuts are a better way of stimulating the economy than Quantitative Easing, which is not really an option at this point given the political backlash against QE2. The tax cuts should boost consumer spending next year and hopefully lead to some upside surprises in U.S. data that evolves into a fundamental shift in the outlook for the U.S. economy. This is the gamble that Obama is taking and if he is right, then the dollar’s rally can be sustained but if he is wrong, then the U.S. will be left with only a massive debt burden that will scare off foreign investors. We won’t see the initial results of the tax cuts until the end of the first quarter at the earliest so in the meantime, all investors have left with is the hope that Obama’s plan will work. For the time being, the U.S. is not at risk of a credit downgrade according to rating agency Moody’s despite the near $1 trillion addition in debt and this may be enough to reassure international investors. 

EUR: IRISH VOTE, FAR FROM OVER

The euro weakened against the U.S. dollar despite what is expected to be a successful passage of Ireland’s 2011 budget. The budget that was unveiled today included the toughest belt tightening in the country’s history, with 6 billion in projected spending cuts and tax hikes. The Parliament has approved the first line items up for vote and the plan survived with an 82-77 vote. The margin was slim but Prime Minister Cowen gets to keep his job for the time being. Unfortunately part of the reason why the euro failed to rally despite this news is because the process is far from over. Over the next few months, the budget will face more parliamentary tests with separate votes scheduled for major bills on items such as welfare cuts and the income tax net expansion. The final vote which would put the taxation items into law may not be until February. With one vote down and three more votes to go, a full resolution to Ireland’s woes is far from over. Any hiccups along the way could bring more pain to the euro. Also don’t forget about contagion risks for countries like Spain and Portugal – the threat is alive and will eventually come back to haunt the region.  It also didn’t help that German economic data surprised to the downside. German factory orders rose 1.6 percent in October which represented a rebound from the previous month, but the pickup in demand was smaller than economists had anticipated.   Nonetheless, it is important to note that despite the troubles in countries like Ireland and Portugal, the two largest economies within the Eurozone (Germany and France) is still performing relatively well. Manufacturing activity in Germany hit a 3 month high last month, prompting the Bundesbank to raise its 2010 growth forecast to 3.6 percent, the fastest pace of growth since 1992. We expect tomorrow’s German trade, current account and industrial production numbers to show the same strength. The bifurcated economic recovery is not to be forgotten because when the sovereign debt crisis fades from our memories, the focus will quickly return to growth.  Meanwhile the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in Switzerland held at a 1.5 year low of 3.6 percent in November, to the envy of many countries around the world.  

GBP: HOLDS ONTO GAINS THANKS TO STRONGER DATA

The British pound was the only major currency to outperform the U.S. dollar. Sterling’s remarkable strength can be credited to better than expected economic reports. Even though industrial production fell 0.2 percent in October, manufacturing production rose 0.6 percent, which was the strongest pace of growth since March. The reason why manufacturing production rose and industrial production fell is because of the volatility in mining, quarrying and utility activity. Output increased in 10 out of the 13 sectors tracked by the manufacturing production report. The British Retail Consortium’s Retail Sales monitor also showed signs of stronger consumer spending. According to the report, retail sales rose 2.8 percent in November. The Bank of England is gearing up for a rate hike this week and even though they are not expected to make new any comments related to the economy or monetary policy, the recent improvements in economic data will give them peace of mind. 
by: FX360

GBPUSD LOOKING FOR WEAKNESS

ABCD Top 161.8% expansion
elwave 3 wave dwn 4th wave up remember price should not rise above 1 wave prices @1.5791 looking for a sell signal

If there's no break or weakness we shall revisit the short else will keeping alert

30min Bearish Buterfly EUR/USD @ 1.3418 and stop @ 1.3470

Wacthing Price if there is a failure or dolla index starts to pick we could catch some pip

let watch and see

FX up and coming events

FX Upcoming
CurrencyGMTESTReleaseExpectedPrior
CAD13:009:00Overnight Rate1.00%1.00%
USD14:0010:00IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism48.3 46.7
USD19:0015:00Consumer Credit m/m-0.9B2.1B

News

After hitting some turbulence during Asian session  caused by rumors of potential Chinese rate hike, high beta currencies rallied in early morning European trade boosted by better UK economic data and expectations that Ireland would pass its austerity budget making it eligible for bailout funds from EU.  In Asia today, equities fell and USD/JPY hit a session low of 82.35 after the official China Securities Journal reported that China may raise its interest rates again over the weekend.  Last week PBOC officials stated that they were switching to a “prudent” monetary policy instead of earlier  “loose” monetary policy stance perhaps in preparation of this move.
China has seen its food price inflation explode over the past several months leading many analysts to conclude that the country has no choice but to hike rates in order to control the growing price pressures in the system. The  rate hike if it were to occur could dampen growth in China but investors quickly shrugged off those concerns and rallied equities of their lows helping high beta currencies to recover.
In Australia the RBA kept rates on hold at 4.75% but the accompanying statement was not as dovish as the market had feared so the Aussie rallied to 9960 boosted surging commodity prices.  As we noted earlier,” This focus on employment growth is likely to be key to Aussie’s direction in the near term. This  Wednesday, the market will get a look at November’s employment data with consensus calls for another  21K new jobs. If employment data continues to expand at a healthy pace,  expectations  for another 25bp  rate hike in Q1 of 2011 are likely to rise helping to fuel further increases in the pair. However, if labor demand cools considerably, Aussie’s recent rally is likely to hit a brick wall with AUD/USD  failing at parity once again as traders begin to price in a much more significant slowdown in Australian growth as we approach 2011.”
Meanwhile data from both Germany and UK was mixed but generally bullish as UK Manufacturing Production rose by 0.6%  but was somewhat offset by drop in Industrial Production of -0.2% which was dragged lower by declines in oil and mining extraction. Cable rose to 1.5800 in the aftermath of the release and hovered near that level into the North American open.  In Germany, factory orders saw a strong rebound  rising 1.6% but that was slightly less that 1.9% eyed by the market. The EUR/USD rose to a high of 1.3396 before retreating to 1.3360 as traders awaited the outcome of the Irish budget vote.
With no US data on the calendar price action in the EUR/USD is likely to be driven by events on the other side of the Atlantic as Irish budget votes is set for 15:45GMT. With several independent lawmakers tipping their support for the austerity budget expectations are that it will be ratified. The news should provide some support for the EUR/USD as sovereign debt concerns begin to ease and the pair could make another run at 1.3400 level as the day progresses.

selling Eur/usd light @ 1.3315

High Hrly Stochastics

Choppy Bulls on the way Up

Choppy Bulls on the way Up
on our Plan

Long Term BULLISH US Dolla Index

Practice Pure Patients Produces Pure Profit

Selling  The GBP/USD @ 1.5730 and 1.5716 selling

Selling The EURUSD @ 1.3340 and 1.3343

with High Stochastic Only
waiting for the AUD/USD High Stochastics only

charts to follow

FOREX TRADERS STILL NERVOUS ABOUT IRISH BAILOUT contagion effect

Investors also feared the aid, which an EU source said could total 80 billion to 90 billion euros, may not be enough to backstop Irish banks or stop similar runs on assets in heavily indebted Portugal or Spain. [ID:nLDE68T0MG]

"The question is, 'What's next?'," said Matthew Strauss, an RBC Capital Markets strategist in Toronto. "It's hard to see how Ireland will get the economic growth needed to repay its debts, especially given the political uncertainty it faces. And given Portugal's finances, people wonder, 'Will it be next?'."

Portugal's debt burden is rooted in slow growth and an increasingly uncompetitive economy. [ID:nLDE6AL04W]

Overnight the euro rose as high as $1.3786 but analysts said a cluster of important technical levels between $1.3100 and $1.3350 could pull it into that range in the coming weeks

Manage you're Risk and put probablity in you're favour

I often hear beginning traders speak as if they know what the markets will do next. In reality, experienced traders usually speak in probabilities and typically have some form of analysis to back up their opinion. No one can say that a particular currency pair (or other financial instrument) will move to an exact point with absolute certainty. In fact, I feel it is naive to think that anyone can predict the direction of a currency pair with absolute certainty over a given period of time. Sure, sometimes you could be correct if you boldly predict that a pair will move to X level with absolute certainty. However, there will be other times when the market doesn't go your way. That is why we must deal with probabilities, because no one knows for sure what will happen next in a given currency pair.

The reason we can never know where a currency pair with absolutely certainty is that the markets move based on the will of every market participant. Let's suppose that someone stated "the EUR/USD will definitely rise to point X, before falling down to point Y". They are saying that know exactly what every market participant (or trader) is thinking, how each of these participants plans to act, and how each participant will respond to the actions of every other participant. Needless to say, no one could ever have that information.

However, it isn't uncommon to see bold predictions that definitively state which direction a currency will pair and exactly where the move will begin and end. No one can know these types of moves for certain. Even worse, it isn't hard to find predictions that say something like "buy the USD/JPY at X or you'll be sorry." This baseless claim gives virtually no useful information because we don't have any idea how long of a trade this would be or where the exits (stop and limit(s)) are. Without being too harsh, just beware of anyone who claims they know for certain where a currency pair is headed. Of course everyone can be entitled to their opinion, but that doesn't mean they "know" what will happen next.

Even if an insider were to know about an interest rate change ahead of its release, that doesn't mean they can predict exactly how the market can act. What if the interest rate briefly rises the pair into massive stop-sell orders that actually moves the market down for the day? What if enough market participants felt the rate would move higher, so the pair moves lower? There are endless scenarios, but it is virtually impossible to predict how every market participant will act within a constantly changing market.

Therefore, we must think in probabilities. No matter how sensational your analysis is, sometimes you will simply be on the wrong side of the market. Whether you are looking at fundamental news announcements, a combination of of technical tools, or a simple moving average, what traders are looking for are patterns that put the probabilities in their favor so they will profit in the long run. In other words, they are looking for how the market has reacted in the past to certain conditions, and speculating how likely the market will react in the future to similar conditions.

Regardless of the tools you use to analyze the market, you are still working with probabilities. If you find a system that is profitable over a long period of time, that system is likely putting the probabilities on your side. These systems come in a variety of shapes and sizes. Some traders (like the famous Turtles), lost far more trades than they won. However, when they won, they usually won big. Some traders try to win the vast majority of their trades while risking a lot, but gaining little. Of course there are all sorts of variations and methods besides those two examples.

We will use the profit target system I use on FX360.com for the purpose of providing an example with easy math. This system requires 40% of trades to reach the profit target in order to break even. The reason for this is because the risk:reward ratio is generally 1:1.5. Therefore, if I win only 50% of my trades, I would be extremely profitable over time. Even winning 45% of my trades would lead to great returns. Anything above 50% wins would be outstanding. Therefore, it is plain to see that it is not necessary to know where the market will go on each individual trade. Instead, it is important to have a system that puts the odds in your favor over a large sample size of trades.

Based on these simple statistics, it is pretty easy to see why it makes little sense to get very excited when a trade wins or very upset when a trade loses. As long as the probabilities continue to hold over a long period of time, the individual results for each trade are almost meaningless. I lose trades all the time and so does every other trader. The key is to manage those losses correctly so that the long term track record is profitable. The bottom line is that thinking of trading in terms of probabilities is a key step to becoming a successful trader.
By Brad Graeiss

EURUSD Possiable HOOK PUNCH LONG @ B 1.3560/1.3535

Ireland denis 60B bailout , They have not filed for an application
USD retail sales increased buy 1.2% along with increased auto sales. Euro trader balance with the rest of the world rose in surplus. RTW news
Elwave postive 57% postion is Up T1 1.4372 T2 1.5550
Plan A :
1.Retracement of the 4hrs Confirmed buy signal
2.Waiting for 1hr Retracement
3.TwoTime frames should be going in our direction 1hrly and 30min
4.Entry 1.3560/1.3535
5.Target 1.3853/1.3950 1.618 of AB = then CD

Mental Fitness for Traders

You've got a great trading system. So why are
you losing?

You've done your homework. Countless hours of
seeking out the right guru (or piecing together
your own system). Weeks of monitoring your
guru's daily trade picks (or paper-trading and
back-testing your homemade system). You've done
it by the book.  No seat of the pants trading
for you!

OK, now you're confident. It's time to put your
money where your homework is.

You've had your coffee and your first trade
signal is before you. Confidence high. Trade made.
First loss. Not a problem. You understood before
you started that successful traders both win and
lose and “losing is part of the overall winning”.

You've also heard more then once that “successful
traders don't win on every trade.” Moving on,
still confident. Next trade made. Another loss,
but this one hurt your pride a little because
you got stopped out early in the trade, and then
the market rebounded and would have hit your
profit target if you weren't stopped out.

You double check. Yep, you placed the stop where your
trading system told you to place it.  You kind of
had a feeling that the early weakness in the market
was just profit-taking from the previous day's
trading, but you're trading a system and you must
stick to it. Wounded, but resilient.

After a good night's sleep and a few mouse clicks,
your new daily trades are in front of you. Hey,
this one looks good! It's a little bit more risk
than yesterday's trades had, but look at that profit
potential! With a smiling face, the trade is executed.

With a nice start to the trade, you're feeling good
and you've moved your stop to breakeven, just like
your system said. Surprise piece of news - market
reverses - blows through your stop - an “unexpected”
loss. Is something wrong with the system? Has the
overall market “personality” changed, affecting your
system to the Core, rendering all your back-testing
irrelevant? Your confidence turns to doubt.

You decide to “watch” the next trade… I mean, isn't
it wise to make sure the system gets back on track
before you “throw good money after bad?”  Isn't that
what a conservative trader does? Trade watched.
It wins!

In your head, you beat yourself up a little because
you know that when you started your “live” trading,
you made an agreement with yourself to take the
first 10 trades “no matter what”… and here you
wimped-out and missed a big winner that would have
gotten you even.

What's happening?!!

What's happening is that you are out of control.
Your emotions are ruling your trading. The above
scenario plays out in every trader from time to
time.. newbee and veteran alike.

The winning trader senses what is happening and
nips it in the bud. The winning trader spend time
EVERY DAY, working on “the discipline of trading”.
Reads a chapter in his favorite psychological
trading book, scans the “ten commandments of
trading” that hangs on the wall over his/her desk,
listens to his/her mental training software for
futures traders… Something… Every Day… before
trading begins.

There are many more losing traders than winning
traders… and it's seldom about the trading system.
In my career, I've come across at least 50 systems
that I consider A+, yet I know for a fact that MOST
traders that have traded on these systems have lost.
Why? They were not in control of their emotions.

Are you?

RECOMMENDED: Mental Training For Traders:
TradingMind Software
http://www.directyourmind.com/scripts/tradingmind.php?10162

My best,
Norman Hallett

The Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rate increase this month was "finely balanced,"

- The Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rate increase this month was "finely balanced," according to minutes of the central bank meeting released Tuesday.

The minutes indicate a gradual improvement in economic activity and moderate inflation were among the decisive factors.

At the November 2 meeting, the bank's policy committee raised the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.75 percent, effective November 3.

The minutes showed the bank's staff projected GDP growth to be "broadly similar to that at the time of the August Statement on Monetary Policy."  GDP was expected to expand 3.5 percent over 2010, with growth picking up to the 3.75 to 4.0 percent range over 2011 and 2012.  CPI increased 0.7 percent in the September quarter to 2.8 percent year over year.

"This was a slightly smaller rise than had been expected three months earlier, partly reflecting a surprising fall in food prices and lower fuel prices," the RBA minutes said.

The policy makers also said interest rates charged by banks for loans might increase by more than the cash rate.

"With only a relative amount of spare capacity in the economy, a gradual upward trend in inflation remained likely over the medium term," the RBA said.

On a global scale, the RBA board noted that downside risks had not materialized "in any significant way," and that the uncertain outlook for China's economy had lessened, commodity prices strengthened and the outlook for investment had firmed.

For comments and feedback: contact editorial@rttnews.com

Copyright(c) 2010 RTTNews.com, Inc. All Rights Reserved

Awaiting RBA Minutes

AUD: HOLDING STEADY AHEAD OF RBA MINUTES
Of all the major currencies, the commodity currencies held up the best against the dollar. The Australian and New Zealand dollars ended the day unchanged while the CAD recovered a small part of Friday’s losses. After a sharp sell-off in gold and oil at the end of last week, commodity prices stabilized. Having risen sharply over the past year thanks to strong demand from Asia and a weaker dollar, increases in commodity prices have boosted Australia’s terms of trade to historical highs. Unfortunately, the latest news that China is facing the strongest price increases in years has officials looking to curb inflation and possibly limit China’s growth. This has many Australians worried because China is Australia’s primary export partner and the Australian mining giant is heavily dependent on China to support the purchases of basic and precious metals. As investors are well aware, RBA surprisingly raised rates to 4.75 percent recently amidst fears that the Australian economy is expanding faster than anticipated. Immediately following the decision, Australia was faced with a number of economic reports that made many second-guess the RBA’s decision. Just last week we saw disappointing employment figures coming out of the region and a 0.4% rise in the Unemployment Rate. Nevertheless, RBA Governor Glenn Stevens remains hopeful for Australia’s future. Tonight investors can expect to see the minutes from the last monetary policy meeting which should give the RBA a better idea of where the central bank stands on future monetary policy.

Commentary by Kathy Lien

AUD: HOLDING STEADY AHEAD OF RBA MINUTES

International Economic Conditions from the Previous Mintues 5th October 2010

Minutes of the Monetary Policy Meeting of the Reserve Bank Board

Sydney - 5 October 2010

On balance, recent data on the global economy had been broadly in line with expectations. The central scenario remained for the world economy to continue to grow at around trend pace over the next year or so, with growth expected to remain relatively strong in the emerging economies but subdued in most of the large advanced economies.

In Asia, growth had eased from the very rapid pace recorded in the second half of 2009 and the early part of this year. While export growth across much of the region had been weak over recent months, indicators of domestic demand had remained firm.

In China, the data for August had mostly been stronger than for June and July. Household spending remained strong; members noted the significant increase in passenger vehicle sales, which had continued to rise even following the partial unwinding of the incentives that had been in place in 2009. Members noted there were signs that the cooling of the Chinese residential property market may have run its course, with turnover increasing after the earlier sharp falls, though prices had remained broadly flat. Members observed that the authorities had recently announced a number of new measures to reduce the flow of lending for housing, especially for investment properties.

Growth appeared to be slowing in Japan. Activity was continuing to expand in the other higher-income economies in Asia; retail sales were growing strongly and employment was expanding. Property markets had also been strong in a number of these economies, most notably Hong Kong, Singapore and Taiwan; this reflected real interest rates that were very low, and in some cases negative, despite the strong economic growth in the region. Policy-makers in these economies had also responded by tightening credit for housing.

source: http://www.rba.gov.au/monetary-policy/rba-board-minutes/2010/05102010.html

Timeless Trading: Timeless Trading: Trading Discipline.

http://www.thedisciplinedtrader.com/4reports.php?10162

Timeless Trading: Trading Discipline.

http://timelesstrading.blogspot.com/2010/11/trading-discipline.html
Timeless Trading: Trading Discipline.: "Check of this Link http://www.thedisciplinedtrader.com/4reports.php?10162 Very Very Good Read in becoming a well rounded Trader"

Trading Discipline.

Check of this Link http://www.thedisciplinedtrader.com/4reports.php?10162
Very Very Good Read in becoming a well rounded Trader

Aussie Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

Actual - Forecast        Previous

The Reserve Bank of Australia publishes a detailed record of its board's most recent monetary policy meeting two weeks after it takes place, providing in-depth insights into the economic conditions that influenced the central bank's decision on where to set interest rates. The Reserve Bank Board normally meets eleven times each year, on the first Tuesday of each month, except January. A dovish statement could push AUD down against its rivals, while hawkish statement could boost the currency.

Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
The Reserve Bank of Australia publishes a detailed record of its board's most recent monetary policy meeting two weeks after it takes place, providing in-depth insights into the economic conditions that influenced the central bank's decision on where to set interest rates.
The Reserve Bank Board normally meets eleven times each year, on the first Tuesday of each month, except January.
A dovish statement could push AUD down against its rivals, while hawkish statement could boost the currency.

ECONOMIC EVENTS

·        http://www.fx360.com/calendar/Index.aspx

The Retail Sales report measures the degree of consumer spending, one of the most important indicators of a country’s overall economic health. Consumer spending constitutes 70 percent of GDP and is therefore one of the most market moving reports for the currency market.

USD - Business Inventories - Sep.

The total value of goods held in inventory by manufacturers, wholesalers, and retailers, compared to the previous month.

why we care

Inventories usually provide an early indicator of consumer/business spending. Consistently low inventories usually have a positive effect on the market, although this is varied.

Bullish 4rh Butterfly AUDUSD

Watching this Bullish  4hr Butterfly on AUSUSD with a possable elwave count  123... 4th wave up
mirroring a ABC= D Buy at 0.9830
113% ABC expansion from the high A=1.02 to B= 0.9978  C- 1.005 procetion D to 0.9830 0
.618% retracement from the pervious wing low 0.9800 to high of 1.01811
now looking for news events to support our long bias 
Price are presemt @ 0.9856

Being able to deal with losing trades separates successful trader from ex-traders

Being able to handle you’re loss in a vital skill that can be learned, however this learning requires the trader to be brutally honest with one ’s self.  In my opinion we live in a blame society, where it is everybody else’s fault apart from the accuser. But may be it could be you not being able to maintain the proper mental discipline and psychological strength to follow the system and methodology that you have tied you’re self to by all cost otherwise it can lead to you being slain by the Song of the Siren 

Sirens and death

According to Ovid (Metamorphoses V, 551), the Sirens were the companions of young Persephone and were given wings by Demeter to search for Persephone when she was abducted. Their song is continually calling on Persephone. The term "siren song" refers to an appeal that is hard to resist but that, if heeded, will lead to a bad result.

Odysseus and the Sirens.

Odysseus was a legendary Greek king of Ithaca and the hero of Homer's epic poem the  Odyssey

He is most famous for the Ten eventful years he took to return home after the ten-year Trojan War and his famous Trojan Horse trick. 

Odysseus was curious as to what the Sirens sounded like, so, on Circe's advice, he had all his sailors plug their ears with Beeswax and tie him to the mast. He ordered his men to leave him tied tightly to the mast, no matter how much he would beg. When he heard their beautiful song, he ordered the sailors to untie him but they refused. When they had passed out of earshot, Odysseus demonstrated with his frowns to be released.#

The principle behind trading is to have more wining trades than losing one’s where you’re losing trades are kept very small and you’re winners larger than you’re loser there fore resulting on accumulative profits over time. FACT!!! The successful trader realises that in this game we are trying to stack probability in our favour over and above 65% risking an advisable 2% to 3% of one’s account stops should reflect this. And only moved to protect gains. If you’re about to get stopped out then so be it. Take the hit and move on it's just part of the game.

FAQ No 10: Can i get rich over night

FLAT ANSWER NO!
But in time it can be very rewarding.

FAQ No 9: How much can I Lose

“Have a maximum loss limit per trade.”
Discipline

Every consistent trader I know has a maximum risk allowance per trade. This is a fundamental tool in the process of controlling loss and if you are trading actively I would highly suggest never risking more than 1-2% of your starting account on any given market opportunity. This way, if you lose, you lose small. I have heard of people risking sometimes 10-15% of their account on a day trade! Just think, after less than ten losers, the account is blown and goodbye trading career. Remember that the math of the market is stacked against you from the very start: If you lose 10% of your account on 1 trade, you then need to make 11.1% on the remaining balance to get back to where you started. If you lose 50% of your account then you need a 100% return on what’s left to get you square. Sobering numbers I know…Keep your losses small and you are giving yourself a genuine fighting chance of a far longer career in the world of trading.

FAQ No8: How do i manage my fear

 Very good question: We are human beings and we can not live without emotion, unfortunately having emotions in the Market arena can be disastrous  to you’re trading account. i.e. Revenge trading, holding onto losers, tell the market what to do instead of letting  the market tell you what it wants to do next effectively not waiting for confirmation of what you think may happen. Price is King and the market is always right.


Therefore, I have to self analyse my self which is one of the most diffuciult things to do. What goes on in my head while I’m trading and being honest about it, confessing it to my self . Then I review this self talk later so I can become familiar with the negative and positive ones. so i cance; out the negative thoughts with the postive ones. You will find that you spend 80% of you're time self analysing you're self and planning a trade,  this must be documented and reviewed daily.

Negative Thoughts                                                                Positive Thoughts

I’m not good enough                                                 I am the best
You must be kidding you’re self you

can’t do this                                                                I can do all things through the holy trinity who tells me to Plan a trade and trade the plan. 

I fcuked this one up real good                                 I smacked it that trade Up and down sticking to my plan

Shit                                                                             Brilliantly executed

Fcuk am I wrong on this one                                    Excellent head shot  

Where am I in the trade                                            I am in total and complete control

I’ve forgotten the price                                         I know all the prices for each pair that I am trading

Why haven’t you got Know patience                       I Am cool calm and collected

Stupid dumb Idiot                              You have a genius understanding of the markets You are an inspiring young black man Who undoubtedly have a natural flow in my  trading style. 

I am not sure if I should make this trade                I have worked hard and have proven myself. I can do this and be successful

What if this trade turn’s out to be a loser              winning and losing is a natural and necessary part of this game so I keep my loss small and  my winning big.

FAQ No7: Do I need a Mission Statement

Yes!! very important for those dark days when the Sun is not shinning and you tell you're self you are not good enough. it nice to have a reminder to keep you on track.


here's mine for you to start you off

Mission Statement

I am patient, determined, focused and confident I have a disciplined well thought out trading plan and I follow it diligently. I treat every trade like I am performing brain surgery, with strict money management techniques which is my life’s blood and I recognizes this. I am never satisfied with what I do as i know it can be done better. My main aim is  to plan a trade a trade a plan and enjoy being  better than myself in my online trading career.

Goals

To become financially free,

Continious skill learning 

Develop Patience’s

FAQ NO 6: Is Trading Gambling

If I had a Pound for every time somebody has told me trading is gambling then I could give up all my work right now! Trading and gambling are two completely different things Professional traders look only for high probability, low risk opportunities in the market: nothing more, nothing less.
Each and every trade should be thoroughly planned in advance, with the risk defined and the profit targets objectively identified. Trading is a crossword, chess, psychology, science all rolled into one. A trader should never just jump into the market on a reflex action or emotion based impluse. Emotions are a killer for any novice. If you want to make your trading more like gambling then I suggest trying to trade the major news releases or not using stop losses to protect your capital…but do so at your own peril. Gamblers are hopeful and wish it will work out for them. Traders should be objective useing calcualted risk with a rule-based apporach.

FAQ NO5: What is the best time to Trade

The absolute busiest time in the forex markets are during the London to US overlap between 13:00 GMT to 16:00 GMT. These are the hours that are the most liquid or when the most traders are in the markets making trades. If your intention is to do daytrading, these are key hours!

The London Session
The London session starts around 8:00 GMT and winds down around 1600 GMT. The currencies that are the most active during these hours are EUR, GBP, and USD.

The US Session
The US session starts around 1300 GMT and winds down around 22:00 GMT. The currencies that are the most active during these hours are AUD, EUR, GBP, JPY, and USD.

The best time to trade the forex markets is between 8:00 GMT and 16:00 GMT. These are basically the hours of the London market with the last 5 hours being in overlap with the US market. This is the time when the most traders and biggest banks are in the markets making their trades. It is widely considered the most profitable time to trade