Main FX Pairs Daily

USDJPY

usdchf

ADJUSTED COUNT

usdcad

Main FX Pairs Daily

 GBPUSD

EURUSD

30/05/2012 updated
eurusd
With U.S. 10 year Treasury yields falling to a record low and the dollar up against all of the major currencies, it is clear that the desire for safety continues to drive financial markets.  Ongoing concerns about the sustainability of Spanish finances has driven the greenback to a fresh 22 month high against the EUR and 17 month high against the CHF.  EUR/USD touched a low of 1.2407 intraday and with no major support until the June 2010 low of 1.2150, the path of least resistance for the euro is still lower.  In the latest chapter of Europe's sovereign debt crisis, Spain's 10 year bond yield rose above 6.7 percent today, a level that is quickly becoming unsustainable.  As one of our colleagues in the industry described, Spain is slowly climbing the stairs of the liquidity hospital.  They came up with a clever scheme to recapitalize Bankia but it was rejected by the European Central Bank because it would increase the risk on the ECB's balance sheet.  The relative silence from European government officials can be both nerve racking and reassuring because it either means they refuse to act until Greece makes a decision about the euro or they are working around the clock on a solution to increase the region's firewall.  It certainly doesn't help that European economic data surprised to the downside, adding pressure on the ECB.  Until the silence is broken, the EUR/USD will not find any long term support. 


Meanwhile U.S. pending home sales fell 5.5 percent in the month of April.  Softer numbers were expected given the rise in March but this decline was far worse than anticipated.  This report suggests that the momentum seen in existing and new home sales last month could begin to fade because pending home sales are a leading indicator for the housing market.  Yet a soft pending home sales report will not be enough to convince the Fed to pull trigger on QE3.  We would need to see a deeper slide in the asset markets, much slower job growth and a stronger contraction in consumer spending.  Fed Presidents Dudley and Fisher are speaking later this afternoon.  Dudley is a voting member of the FOMC and will most likely reiterate his recent view that for the time being, more easing is not needed.  The end of month is quickly approaching which means that month end flows will come into play.  Based on the sharp slide in U.S. equities this past month, fund managers will need to buy dollars to rebalance their portfolios.

4hrs

Audusd

Audusd adjusted

USDCHF

usdcad

Possiable 5th wave end

A larger than expected U.S. trade deficit won't change the outlook for the U.S. economy or make the Federal Reserve any more dovish.  In the month of April, the trade deficit narrowed to $50.1 billion from $52.6 billion.  Economists had hoped that the balance would rise back above  -$50 billion but weak global demand prevented that from happening. Along with the downward revision to the past month's report, trade activity will contribute negative GDP  growth

This trade worked out nicely as predicted so following on there is a lot more pips to catch
New Chart Daily

The Bank of Canada left the policy rate unchanged at 1%. Policymakers acknowledged worsening in global economic outlook and increasing risks going forward. Yet, it retained the stance that the next move of the central bank would be a rate hike, rather than a cut. This should be attributed to the relatively stable domestic recovery. Concerning exchange rate, the BOC retained the rhetoric that persistent appreciation would be detrimental to growth despite the recent decline. More in BOC Left Interest Rates Unchanged, Statement Not as Dovish as Anticipated.

Up North, Canada also suffered from slower global growth as the country's trade surplus turned into a deficit.  For the month of April, Canada's trade balance was -0.37 billion versus a downwardly revised 0.15 billion in March.  It was a tough morning for Canada which explains the weakness in the Canadian dollar.  Aside from reporting a trade deficit, job growth slowed materially while housing starts declined.  After 2 solid months of strong employment gains, only a mere 7.7k jobs were added last month - nearly all of which were part time work.  The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 7.3 percent.  Housing starts on the other hand dropped to 211.4k from 243.8k.  When the Bank of Canada met earlier this week, they held onto their belief that it may soon be time to unwind monetary stimulus.  With asset markets falling,oil  prices declining and economic data weakening, it will be difficult for them to justify one this year. 

USDX

The USDX continues to trade near the weekly range highs after a strong daily close on Monday. Price is now consolidating recent gains and is near flat on the day with a 0.09% drop at present. It is no surprise to see a small reaction to the downside as this area has proved to be a price pivot on numerous previous occasions.

The highly weighted (in terms of USDX) EURUSD pair staged a brief rally this morning, from the Frankfurt/London open; the euro/dollar rate is now testing 1.2840 intra-day support after giving back much of the earlier gains.

Strength in USD during these ‘risk-off” times is often attributable to investors buying treasuries to protect their principal investment. As speculators move towards US Treasuries, prices typically move higher. As prices and yields are inversely related , yields move lower. With this in mind we can see that Benchmark 10-year notes have gained in price to yield 1.769%, this is the lowest level seen since October.

Gold is close to major price structure support; any strong upside reaction from the precious metal should be monitored as the negative relationship between gold and the US Dollar can often give a hint as to potential dollar movement . Price is now close to the $1530 area which has provided tremendous support when last visited.

Any breakout above the 80.75 area may see dollar-x bulls target the 81.77 previous high. Price has however moved to the upside with little retrace and may be due a corrective pullback before potentially heading higher. Initial support may be seen at the 80.00 level in the event of a retrace for the USDX.

http://www.forex-fx-4x.com/dollar-index-technical-analysis-1552012/

Audjpy Bullish Gartley worked out now?

Following on from previous post News and chats on the AUDJPY we continue to monitor developments

our BULLISH MOVE WORKED OUT FINE NOW A POSSIBLE WAVE3 DWN SHORT

4HRS BELOW

USDCAD 4 UR EYES ONLY

Tradervox (Dublin) - The Canadian economy posted jobs data today. The Canadian economy added an additional of 58.2k jobs (expected 10k) versus the previous 82.3k. This better than expected jobs data, however failed to bring down the unemployment rate. In fact the unemployment rate rose to 7.3% from previous 7.2%.

On the one hour chart the jobs data resulted in 2 big bearish candles bringing the USD/CAD pair to 0.99565. The pair found support at this level preventing it from further falls.

The US economy posted the producer price index and University of Michigan consumer confidence. The producer price index fell to a seasonally adjusted value of -0.2%. The fall in the producer price index can be attributed to the fall in the crude prices bringing down the energy costs. This fall in the producer prices will likely reflect in the Wholesale price index and filter down into the Consumer Price index, thereby bringing down the inflation. The fall in the inflation will ease the pressure on the Federal Reserve and the Federal Reserve can move ahead with its Quantitative Easing policy should the economy be affected from the slowing growth due to recession fears in the Euro zone. The Consumer confidence in the US rose from the previous value of 76.4 to 77.8 beating analyst’s expectations.

The USD/CAD has slightly recovered from the strong selling seen after the Canadian employment data. The recovery in the USD/CAD is not very strong and is a market reaction to the better than expected consumer confidence and producer price index data.

The USD/CAD is currently trading around the 0.998 level. The trend is in favor of the bears with bearish volatility building up. However the bearish trend is not very strong to cause a major fall in the pair. This is due to a renewed buying interest in the market due to better than expected US fundamentals. Additionally the crude markets are also not in favor of the Canadian dollar and this is damping the outlook of the bears in the USD/CAD.

The USD/CAD is likely to close the week around the 0.99 levels with slight bullishness dominating the trade.

A break of the 100602 has brought us to the highs @ 1.02946 which is also the highs of december 22 2011
coupled with a bearisg Gartley if the Resisitance holds @ 1.02780 the a major pull back and shift in trend could occur
With not so great US data this trade idea could be possiable

USD

Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM)

-0.6%

0.9%

-0.8%

(Advertisement) Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) <> Actual -0.6% Forecast 0.9% Previous -0.8% Core Durable Goods Orders measures the change in the total value of new orders for long lasting manufactured goods, excluding transportation items. Because aircraft orders are very volatile, the core number gives a better gauge of ordering trends. A higher reading indicates increased manufacturing activity. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD. Details Chart History Importance: High Source Of Report: Census Bureau Release URL: http://www.census.gov/ftp/pub/indicator/www/m3/ <> More

08:30

USD

Durable Goods Orders (MoM)

0.2%

0.5%

-3.7%

(Advertisement) Durable Goods Orders (MoM) <> Actual 0.2% Forecast 0.5% Previous -3.7% Durable Goods Orders measures the change in the total value of new orders for long lasting manufactured goods, including transportation items. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD. Details Chart History Importance: Medium Source Of Report: Census Bureau Release URL: http://www.census.gov/ftp/pub/indicator/www/m3/ <> More

08:30

USD

Initial Jobless Claims

370K

370K

372K

(Advertisement) Initial Jobless Claims <> Actual 370K Forecast 370K Previous 372K Initial Jobless Claims measures the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. This is the earliest U.S. economic data, but the market impact varies from week to week. A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD. Details Chart History Importance: High Source Of Report: Department of Labor Release URL: http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/ui/current.htm <> More

08:30

CAD

Corporate Profits (QoQ)

0.1%

9.0%

(Advertisement) Corporate Profits (QoQ) <> Actual 0.1% Forecast Previous 9.0% Corporate Profits measures the change in the total value of profits earned by corporations. This data is released quarterly, around 55 days after the quarter ends. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the CAD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the CAD. Details Chart History Importance: Low Source Of Report: Statistics Canada Release URL: http://www.statcan.gc.ca/release-diffusion/2012-eng.htm#a25 <> More

08:30

USD

Continuing Jobless Claims

3260K

3250K

3289K

i've sold already  @ 1.0256  stop @ 1.0315 Target all they way back down to the low ambitions but still possiable