GOLD FIB TIME TESTING

 Daily

4hours

Research and testing fibnocci time series. if there are any tips you can offer on how you use this please comment

Robert fisher say's "In case where the price goal is reached before the time goal and also there are instances where the goal is reached before the price goal. overall all he says there is no way to determine, in advance whether price or time targets are more important for a price moves and other fibonacci tools will need to be applyied...

I guess  if price  moves past particular time line it should stay in the trend untill the next time line

Any tips or suggestions

usdjpy finally paid off

 

 

 

 

Last Post

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Eurusd elwave took off early

Eurusd moon cycle end in 4th Wave 24/08/2012 between 0.800 and 16.00 hrs

Above is the 4hr Time frame as we mix and match skills and adapt to market conditions

comments from Forexpros - The euro firmed against the dollar on Wednesday after a new media report surfaced stating the European Central Bank is drafting technical plans to buy sovereign bonds issued by debt-ridden periphery countries to lower borrowing costs there and ease the debt crisis.

In Asian trading on Wednesday, EUR/USD was trading up 0.01% at 1.2473, up from a low of 1.2471 and off from a high of 1.2477.

The pair was likely to find support at 1.2347, the low from Aug. 21, and resistance at 1.2488, the high from Aug. 21.

Der Spiegel reported over the weekend that the European Central Bank may decide to cap yields in eurozone sovereign debt markets at its September policy meeting.

The ECB would carry out such a policy via buying sovereign bonds in the open market, though bank officials branded the news report as misleading, which sent the euro falling earlier this week.

However, The Daily Telegraph later said the report was true, which sent the dollar falling and the euro shooting up as high as 1% in U.S. trading earlier.

Renewed talk of ECB action sent Spanish borrowing costs falling at an auction of short-term government debt earlier, with Madrid successfully auctioning EUR4.5 billion of bills, the top end of the target range.

Elsewhere, Luxemburg’s Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker, also head of a group of eurozone finance ministers, was set to meet with Greek Prime Minister Antonis Samaras later Wednesday to discuss a two-year extension Greece's reform programs.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel is scheduled to meet with French President Francois Hollande on Thursday to discuss ways to firewall and extinguish the crisis, while Samaras will meet both leaders later in the week, fueling hopes E.U. policymakers will work to keep Greece in the eurozone.

Audjpy daily and 4hrs Outlook

AUdjpy

fx streets said
FXstreet.com (San Francisco) - Intraday price action for AUD/JPY again encountered selling interest around key Fibonacci resistance at 83.20 on Monday (61.8%, 88.64/74.48), which limited earlier rallies to 83.26 before pullback to close the North American session at 82.97. 

The mentioned price action resulted in the formation of an inside day bar, a pattern of significance after last Friday’s sharp drop, suggesting the market has entered a period of consolidation before a potential downside extension in the sessions ahead. 

The 21-day EMA at 82.50 seems to be supporting the downside. Further support is noted at 82.38 (5 July high), then 82.00 (200 EMA, 4hr). Upside rallies may find more offers at the 84.00 psychological figure. AUD/JPY is quoted at 82.95 in early Asia.

http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?storyid=9c6d74c5-a719-4761-b80d-b72e3f3560fc

We have a bullish count Targeting 1 84.20 Target 2 87.46 exit zone 82.17 /81.496

but it seems price is rounding off need more clarification


audjpy updated
Therefore the clever combatant imposes his will on the enemy, but does not allow the enemy's will to be imposed on him. 

50/50

EURjpy Tracking count and Harmonics

Check Out last weeks http://timelessfx.blogspot.co.uk/2012/08/eurjpy-daily.html

HEAVEN signifies night and day, cold and heat, times and seasons.

EARTH comprises distances, great and small; danger and security; open ground and narrow passes; the chances of life and death.

The COMMANDER stands for the virtues of wisdom, sincerity, benevolence, courage and strictness.

By METHOD AND DISCIPLINE are to be understood the marshaling of the army in its proper subdivisions, the graduations of rank among the officers, the maintenance of roads by which supplies may reach the army, and the control of military expenditure.

 Sightly adjusted from Last week

 Possible if price barrier weekly pivot is broken 97.45

Also see http://www.fxtimes.com/technical-updates/eurjpy-anchoring-away-from-a-double-top-pulls-back/

USdjPY Tracking from last week it Hit B Target =79.60

1. Laying Plans

4

These are: (1) The Moral Law; (2) Heaven; (3) Earth; (4) The Commander; (5) Method and discipline.

It appears from what follows that Sun Tzu means by "Moral Law" a principle of harmony, not unlike the Tao of Lao Tzu in its moral aspect. One might be tempted to render it by "morale," were it not considered as an attribute of the ruler in ss. 13.

http://timelessfx.blogspot.co.uk/2012/08/usdjpy-daily-elwave-count.html

Last week link

Last week Japan’s gross domestic product disappointed with a lower than predicted rise of 0.3% in the second quarter half the growth rate predicted by analysts. On a yearly base, GDP added 1.4% while predicted a 2.5% leap indicating the effect of government subsidies is starting to wear off and additional monetary stimulus is in order.  Let’s see what unfolds this week.

Updates: Trade Balance will be released on Tuesday. The markets are expecting a wider deficit for the August reading. The yen has edged upwards to start the trading week. USD/JPY was trading at 79.53.

20/8/2012 USdjpy

Now we should start to decline so i'm positioning for shorts as soon as  the 4 hr Anchor sets up and begins to turn bearish and set up on the hourly for a short.

Harmonic View Point

A little advance on the hrly then a decline

1. All Industries Activity: Tuesday, 4:30.Japan’s all industry activity declined 0.3% in May more than the 0.2% drop predicted by analysts, following 0.1% gain in the previous month. This decline occurred despite a surge in construction activity since May however industrial activity and service sector activity shrank by 3.4%. On a yearly basis, all industry activity growth slowed to 3.2% from 4.1% in April. A 0.3% rose is expected now.
2. Trade Balance: Tuesday, 23:50. Seasonally adjusted merchandise trade deficit shrank to Y300.8 billion in June after Y620 billion in May, better than the Y390 billion predicted by analysts. Exports contracted 1.4% and imports declined 6.5%. On a yearly base Japan posted a trade surplus of ¥61.654 billion in June compared to a year ago. Government officials claim the global economic slowdown has expanded including China the world’s second biggest economy contracting 7.6% in the second quarter. Trade deficit is expected to widen in July to Y460 billion.
3. CSPI : Thursday, 23:50 Corporate service price Index dropped 0.3% in June from a year ago worse than the flat reading predicted by analysts and following 0.1% increase in May. On a monthly basis, prices shrank 0.1% after a 0.4% decline in the previous month continuing the deflation trend. A smaller decline of 0.2% is anticipated.
4. Masaaki Shirakawa speaks: Friday, 7:45.  The Governor of the Bank of Japan is scheduled to speak at a meeting with business leaders in Osaka, where he might reveal clues concerning the possibility of adding further monetary stimulus to the Japanese market, as the pace of recovery slow.

http://www.forexcrunch.com/usdjpy-outlook-august-20-24/comment-page-1/#comment-107868


Been trackinmg this 1 for about a week and finally paid off

 

Audusd Wkly Sun TZu 1. Laying Plans

1. Laying Plans

The art of war, then, is governed by five constant factors, to be taken into account in one's deliberations, when seeking to determine the conditions obtaining in the field.

news

The aussie was trading in a narrow range through most of the week, but dropped over one cent following a strong consumer sentiment release in the US.

Updates: The RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes will be released on Tuesday. AUD/USD is steady, as the pair is trading at 1.0454.

Elwave count 

more news

1. RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: Tuesday, 1:30. Analysts will comb through the minutes of the RBA’s most recent Policy Meeting, looking for clues about future monetary policy, especially as to interest rates. A report which is more hawkish than forecast is bullish for the aussie.
2. MI Leading Index: Wednesday, 12:30. This important composite index jumped 0.8% in August, its best performance since October 2011. The markets will be hoping for a similar strong reading in August.
3. Chinese Flash Manufacturing PMI: Thursday, 2:30. Manufacturing PMI rose in July to 49.5 points, but the index has not been above the 50 point level since last October, indicating ongoing contraction in the Chinese manufacturing sector. Traders should pay close attention to this PMI, as China is Australia’s number one trading partner.
4. RBA Governor Guy Glenn Speaks: Thursday, 23:30. The markets will be looking for some clues as to future monetary policy when Governor Glenn testifies before an Australian Senate Committee.
5. CB Leading Index: Friday, 00:00. This composite index bounced back nicely in July, gaining 0.4%. The markets will be hoping for another gain in the August reading.

 AUSusd We FORECASTER A BOUNCE AT AROUND 1.0384 zone  Bounce 4th wave last week. with the anticipation of a 5th wave push up. However i think it might be to early for this move. Even tho we have a gap up and Three marching solders formation in candle sticks. A drop is still possible looking from a harmonic point of view and the 4hr wave push down could go all the way down to 1.0298 and  hold proceed into wave 5. at the moment the trend is up but just not sure if the volume will be able to gather enough momentum to take it another leg yet. as the Anchor is bearish on the 4hrs and bullish on the daily so in effect we are still correctively bullish until certain price structures are taken out  or confirmed., however it seems there are a few opportunities to go long and short.

The hrly Time frame  may honour the 3 marching solders but it depends on what forces they may run into in the next few days at the moment stand aside as momentum declines and lets wait for a clear opportunity. a head of the news events to night.


Check Out


http://www.fxtimes.com/technical-updates/audusd-cracking-key-pivot-after-false-break-above-trendline/

GBPUSD wkly outlook

Degree: 15° 21'

People with the Moon in the same degree
Diplomatic, aesthetical, avoiding confrontation, understanding and attentive. Likes to spend time with the partner, hates situations that require to make a choice.

The Moon in Libra people have a desire to conciliate conflicting interests, to help even complete opposites to meet somewhere, to find a peaceful solution for a conflict situation. In short - they are inborn diplomates. Intuitively, they feel that everything in this world has two sides - a positive and a negative - and try to restore harmony where, as they think, there is no balance. If someone is praised onesidedly, the Moon in Libra will add something negative about that person. But if someone is criticized, the same Moon in Libra will add something positive to the mixture.

news 

Both the UK and US has some strong releases, last week with the UK showing better employment data, while the US had a strong consumer confidence release. As a a result, GBP/USD traded in a narrow range, unable to sustain a breakout in either direction.

Updates: Rightmove HPI looked very weak, declining by 2.4%. This was the lowest reading since December 2011. Public Sector Net Borrowing will be released on Tuesday. The markets are expecting a surplus, which would be the first since May.

GBPusd 

Elwave count Says we are still bullish above 1.5483 Look for a continuation of the wave 3

more news this week :

1. Rightmove HPI: Sunday, 23:01. This housing inflation index fell 1.7% in July, indicating reduced activity in the UK housing sector. The markets are hoping for an improvement in the August reading.
2. Public Sector Net Borrowing:Tuesday, 8:30. After a large deficit in the July reading, the markets are predicting a surplus this month. This would be bullish for the pound.
3. CBI Industrial Order Expectations: Tuesday, 10:00. This indicator has been improving, but is still in negative territory, with a July release of -7 points. The markets will  be hoping for an improved reading in this month’s release.
4. BBA Mortgage Approvals: Thursday, 8:30. There was a drop in the number of mortgage approvals last month, but the markets are predicting an improvement in August, with an estimate of 28.2 thousand.
5. CBI Realized Sales: Thursday, 10:00. This consumer spending indicator came in below forecast in July, but the markets are expecting a significant improvement, with a forecast 16 points.
6. Revised GDP: Friday, 8:30. GDP, released negatively, has posted negative numbers for the past two quarters. The markets are predicting another poor release for Q2, with an estimate of -0.5%. Another negative reading would be another sign of a weak UK economy and could hurt the pound. 
7. Preliminary Business Investment. Friday, 8:30. This indicator looked very strong in Q1, jumping 3.6%. The estimate for Q2 is a respectable 2.8% gain.

http://www.forexcrunch.com/category/forex-weekly-outlook/gbp-usd-outlook/

However we may be able top get a pull back in an harmonic pattern to advance forward with in the 5 Day moon Cycle A day of duty and defending of principles and beliefs. Day when energy is rising increasing. we have to focus on our plans and achieve our goals without obstacles. All new knowledge we receive today, as well as the food we eat, everythingis absorbed fully. Mostly positive, lucky and favorable day .


Battle strategy: Sun Tzu Says Fighting with a large army under your command is nowise different from fighting with a small one: it is merely a question of instituting signs and signals.

That is, cutting up the army into regiments, companies, etc., with subordinate officers in command of each. Tu Mu reminds us of Han Hsin's famous reply to the first Han Emperor, who once said to him: "How large an army do you think I could lead?" "Not more than 100,000 men, your Majesty." "And you?" asked the Emperor. "Oh!" he answered, "the more the better."

The Moon in Libra people

https://plus.google.com/u/0/b/115340710016239869408/115340710016239869408/posts/p/pub

Eurusd Elwave count

1. German WPI: Monday, 6:00. German inflation numbers have influence on the ECB, especially concerning interest rates. After a big drop of 1.1% in wholesale prices, a small rise is expected now: 0.4%.
2. French GDP (first release): Tuesday, 5:30. The euro-zone’s second largest economy surprised by growing in the fourth quarter of 2011, and remained flat in Q1 2012. PMIs and other indicators point to contraction in Q2. The consensus stands on -0.2%. Note that the final number usually confirms the first release, also in Germany’s case. Italy’s economy fell sharply, and also Spain contracted.
3. German GDP (first release): Tuesday, 6:00. Germany’s strong 0.5% growth in Q1 saved the euro-zone from entering an official recession – it remained flat. However, the situation deteriorated in Q2, and growth is expected to fall to only 0.1%. A drop in Germany’s output will not be very surprising in the current environment.
4. French Quarterly Non-Farm Payrolls: Tuesday, 6:45. The number of payrolls is published in France only once per quarter, making this figure more important. Q1 saw a surprising rise of 0.1% in jobs, after a 0.2% drop beforehand. Another drop of 0.1% is likely now.
5. GDP (first release): Tuesday, 9:00. The initial GDP release for the euro-zone in Q2 is slightly overshadowed by the ZEW figure and the earlier releases of French, German, Italian and Spanish figures. Nevertheless, this figure is of high importance and will echo for quite some time. All the signs point to a contraction in Q2 after a flat Q1 and a squeeze of 0.3% beforehand. Contraction of 0.2% is likely now. Note that the estimates are likely to change once Germany and France release their figures.
6. German ZEW Economic Sentiment: Tuesday, 9:00. This survey of 350 analysts and investors has a significant impact on the euro, and it certainly reflected the deteriorating in sentiment, falling in the past three months. The indicator reached -19.6 points last month, disappointing once again, and showing the growing pessimism in the German business community. A very small recovery is forecast for the month of July. The all-European figure, which is less important, is likely to tick up from the -22.3 points recorded last month.
7. Industrial Production: Tuesday, 9:00. Industrial output surprised with by rising 0.6% in May. The tables have likely turned in June, as already seen in the German and French figures. A drop of 0.1% is expected now.
8. CPI: Thursday, 9:00. The annual level of inflation is moving very slowly towards the 2% target. The initial figure of 2.4% will likely be confirmed in the final call now, or revised to 2.5%. Core CPI will likely stand on 1.6%.
9. German PPI: Friday, 6:00. Producer prices fell short of expectations for three months in a row, and prices fell in the past two months. July will likely see a correction with a rise of 0.4%.
10. Current Account: Friday, 8:00. While this is a relatively late figure, its wide scope (encompassing trade balance, services, flows, etc.) makes it of high important. The euro-zone enjoyed three consecutive months of surpluses, with a strong 10.9 billion euro surplus for May. June will probably see a lower figure of 7.8 billion.
11. Trade Balance: Friday, 9:00. Also the his more narrow figure is positive, thanks to German exports. The surplus rose from 4.5 to 6.3 billion, and likely dropped now to 5.4 billion.

written by Yohay Elam |

EURJPY Daily

UsdJpy Daily Elwave count

Daily above UsdJPY

1. Prelim GDP: Sunday, 23:50. Japan’s preliminary reading of GDP showed a 1.0% expansion rate in the first quarter, following a flat reading in the fourth quarter of 2011. This better than expected figure was 0.1% higher than predicted by analysts and eventually was revised further up to a 1.2% growth rate. This encouraging reading indicates recovery is on the right track.
2. Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: Monday, 23:50. BOJ members were more optimistic on their last meeting on June indicating Japan’s economy is picking up amid a firm domestic demand. However Japan still faces many downside risks such as deflation and global uncertainty amid the European debt crisis. The members agreed the bank should intervene in case the European risks materialize. They have also upgraded their assessment of the domestic economy.
3. Tertiary Industry Activity: Monday, 23:50. Service sector activity improved in May by 0.7% topping analysts’ predictions of a 0.2% gain and following a 0.2% contraction in April. Improvement was demonstrated in wholesale and retail trade, medical health care and welfare, information and communications, amusement services, technical services, and compound services.

4hr Anchor

GBPjpy Daily Elwave Count

 

Count slightly adjusted but format still the same

 

comments from action forex

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains on the upside for 125.82 resistance. Break will confirm resumption of whole rebound from 118.82 and should target 100% projection of 118.82 to 125.82 from 120.82 at 127.82. On the downside, below 124.58 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations first.
In the bigger picture, at this point, we'd like to maintain that price actions from 116.83 are corrective in nature so far. Rise from 118.82 could be the third leg of the pattern from 116.83 and might target 113.48 and above. But this is far from being certain. After all, the likely scenario is that we'll see more range trading between 116.83 and 140.02 (50% retracement of 163.05 to 116.83 at 139.94) ahead, before an eventual downside breakout. We'll favor this view as long as 140.02 resistance holds.

1. CSPI : Thursday, 23:50 Corporate service price Index dropped 0.3% in June from a year ago worse than the flat reading predicted by analysts and following 0.1% increase in May. On a monthly basis, prices shrank 0.1% after a 0.4% decline in the previous month continuing the deflation trend. A smaller decline of 0.2% is anticipated.
2. Masaaki Shirakawa speaks: Friday, 7:45. The Governor of the Bank of Japan is scheduled to speak at a meeting with business leaders in Osaka, where he might reveal clues concerning the possibility of adding further monetary stimulus to the Japanese market, as the pace of recovery slow.

fundys

 

By Clare Jim and Poornima Gupta

TAIPEI/SAN FRANCISCO, Aug 22 (Reuters) - Apple Inc and Foxconn have improved working conditions at Chinese factories that make most of the world's iPads and iPhones, according to auditors the firms enlisted to monitor the process, but tough tasks lie ahead.
The Fair Labor Association said on Tuesday local laws require the companies -- which came under fire over conditions at the plants blamed for a series of suicides in 2010 -- to reduce hours by almost a third by 2013 for the hundreds of thousands working in Foxconn plants across southern China.
Foxconn said on Wednesday it would continue to cut overtime to less than nine hours a week from the current 20, even though that could raise labor costs while also making it difficult to attract workers.
'It is a challenge. When we reduce overtime it means we need to hire more people and implement more automation, more investment on robotic engineering. More workers also mean more dormitories and recreational facilities; it takes time,' said Louis Woo, special assistant to the CEO of Foxconn.
'But I expect more loyalty from workers as a result, and then we can save more costs on recruitment and retainment,' he told Reuters in an interview on Wednesday.
'Yield rates will also improve. Efficiency in terms of productivity, yield gain, retention and lower turnover rates should be able to improve next year.'

 

also see fxtimes

 

http://www.fxtimes.com/technical-updates/gbpjpy-threatening-to-break-resistance-cluster/

Audusd playing out as discussed now Position

1. NAB Business Confidence: Tuesday, 1:30. Business Confidence has now posted two consecutive negative readings, with the indicator dipping to -3 points in July. Will the indicator bounce back in August?
2. New Motor Vehicle Sales: Tuesday, 1:30. This consumer indicator shows a lot of volatility, making accurate market predictions a tricky task. The markets are hoping for an improvement from the July reading of -0.6%.



4. Westpac Consumer Sentiment: Wednesday, 00:30. Consumer Sentiment jumped 3.7% in July, its best reading since February. Another strong reading this month would be bullish for the aussie.
5. Wage Price Index: Wednesday, 1:30. The indicator showed a modest increase in Q1 of 0.9%. No change is expected in the Q2 release.
6. MI Inflation Expectations: Thursday, 1:00. This indicator is useful for predicting actual inflation numbers. The indicator jumped 3.3% in July, its highest level since April.
7. RBA Assistant Governor Guy Debelle Speaks: Thursday, 5:45. The markets will be looking for some clues as to future monetary policy when the Assistant Governor takes part in a panel discussion in Sydney.

Audusd Pullback monitored  Updated

4hrs swinging Zigzag

15min Time frame with hourly Marking.

What I am suggesting is another push up in Harmonic D 1.1618 only..

Which coincides with our wave 3 bullish count on a higher time frame?

The idea is confirmed if a break is established above 1.05001

Otherwise we may see further decline down into wave 4 marked on the daily @ 1.0376

Not sure when this will happen I’m working on with some friends of mine Price and time Projections to help with accuracy so watch this space!!!

Ok!! we did say we were going to track this baby and we even managed to get a few pips out of a short pull back up. However the 4th wave decline scenario  is playing itself out as also planned earlier this week. Now we sit and wait and watch to see how next weeks price action will unfold around that 1.03745. Personally i know wave 4s are choppy and wild so be careful i expect a break above 1.0524 and hold will Confirm the case for a 5th wave rally but who knows. we do cause we will be watching the Market makers as the fight it out.

Zoom in Below

Peace Out
Good Pippin

EURusd

EurUSd

lost some ground following the release of strong US Retail Sales data yesterday (Aug. 14th). Both Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales were well above the market estimates. Meanwhile, there was good news out of Greece as the government raised over 4 billion euros in a successful bond auction. The markets in Europe are quiet today, with national holidays in France and Italy. There are a host of US releases, however, highlighted by Core CPI


senitment

Greek auction beats expectations: On Tuesday, Greece raised some 4.063 billion euros in a government auction of three-month bonds, with a respectable yield of 4.43%. The sale was much larger than the previous one, and provides crucial funds as the country prepares to make a 3.2 billion euro bond repayment to the ECB later this month as part of the bailout package.

Greek talks continue with troika: The EU / ECB / IMF delegation left Athens and reported progress in their negotiations with the Greek government. Talks are not scheduled to resume until September, after Greece has a scheduled bond repayment to the ECB. Greece reported a year over year contraction of “only” 6.2% in Q2, better than 6.5% in Q1, and beating the estimate of 7.0%. When it comes to Greece, the markets appear to be taking the attitude that “less bad news is good news”. See how to trade the Grexit with EUR/USD.

ECB downgrades EZ growth: In its Monthly Bulletin, the ECB revised its forecast of Euro-zone growth in 2012 from -0.2% to -0.3%. This negative news will increase the pressure on ECB head Mario Draghi to take action, especially regarding Italian and Spanish borrowing costs. Draghi recently declared that bond yields are unacceptable, and that the ECB will explore ways to act in the coming weeks. Italy and Spain want help, but don’t want more conditions and are hesitating before asking for help. In Germany, opposition is growing for ECB intervention from Bundesbank figures. The reminder of bond buying by the Bundesbank in the 70s was seen as “blackmail” by the German orthodox bankers. Draghi is juggling between the Spanish and Italian desire and the German opposition. With the zone hobbled by 11.2% unemployment, contracting growth and a crippling debt crisis, Europe’s leaders need to bicker less and act more, quickly.

To QE3 or not?: Speculation about QE by the Fed refuses to go away, and was revived after Boston Federal Reserve President Eric Rosengren declared that the Fed should implement QE3 in order to help the troubled US economy. In the meantime, encouraging signs were seen in the US: recent NFP and Retail Sales looked sharp, jobless claims remain low and the trade balance deficit fell to lows last seen at the beginning of 2011. Other market players, however, believe that the QE3 camp seems to miss a simple reality.

Markets worried about German economy: Recent German economic data has been weak, with PMIs, industrial production and manufacturing orders all disappointing the markets. The markets finally received some good news, as German GDP (first release) was up 0.3%, better than the estimate which stood at 0.2%. However, German ZEW Economic Sentiment fell sharply to -25.5 points, its worst showing this year. Germany is not immune.

Dark Clouds Over Italy: Borrowing costs rose after Italy auctioned the full targeted amount of EUR8 billion of one-year government bonds at a yield of 1.69%. This was up from the previous auction, which netted a yield of 1.55%. The economic picture in Italy is grim, as the country is carrying a debt-to-GDP ratio of 123%, and with another GDP decline, has officially been in recession for one full year. The Italian PM Mario Monti has been very active of late, but his popularity in Italy is diminishing, and he also managed to anger the Germans by taking a swipe and dismissing the importance of the Bundestag.

written by Written By Kenny Fisher

GbpUsd 4hr Count

GBPUSD

1. RICS House Price Balance: Monday, 23:01. This housing indicator looked awful in July, declining by some 22%. A similar decline is predicted for August, reflective of a very weak hous ing sector.
2. CPI: Tuesday, 8:30. This key inflation index rose 2.4% in July. A similar increase is expected in August.
3. RPI: Tuesday, 8:30. This inflation index, which includes housing costs jumped 2.8% in July. The markets are expecting a similar reading in August.
4. Claimant Count Change: Wednesday, 8:30. There was a drop in the number of unemployed people in July, as the indicator posted a figure of 6.1 thousand. The markets are not anticipating much change in the August release.
5. MPC Meeting Minutes: Wednesday, 8:30. The markets will be carefully analyzing these minutes for the breakdown of the votes for both the interest rate and QE decisions by the central bank’s Monetary Policy Committee. A voting pattern which is more hawkish than forecast is bullish for the pound.
6. Unemployment Rate: Wednesday, 8:30. The Unemployment Rate edged down to 8.1% in July, and the estimate for the August remains the same.
7. Retail Sales: Thursday, 8:30. This key consumer indicator was a disappointment last month, posting a weak 0.1% gain. The markets are predicting the same figure for the August release.

Testing Times For GBPUSD

 Count suggests we are in a minor wave 3 Up However  has been very choppy as the pound Builds Pressure

Looks kinda Toppy on the upside on the 4hr chart  with over brought indicators however no real selling pressure has entered the market. If you can pick up a nice pull back then great otherwise if you havent altreade entered then be caution.

Eurgbp 5th Wave decline in focus

Eurgbp has momentary held the 4th wave advancement which has stopped at the wave 1 support turn Resistance of 26 June 2012.

The ideas is to position now for a 5th wave dwn. The Andrews pitchfork ML Break signifies that this may be possible as long as Mr price stays below ML 0.7938.
whip sawing is possible as we know in a wave 4. so stay vigilant and my suggestion is to take profits quickly scalping on the way down

I still getting bullish momentum in eurgbp so watch and waite to see what transpares

AUDUSD Broken trend Line Please

Daily

4Hrs

AUDUSd Needs to stay below the Broken trend line  to complete a possiable full 50% pull back to the weekly pivot @ 1.03804 and  then to advance forward inits  comlplex Zigzag moment upwards.

4hr AudJPY Bearish Butterfly updated

AUDJPY 4hrs

My Count tells me we are in a wave 3 of a larger dregree within that 3rd wave we have an impulsive 1 and presently we are pulling back into a complex WXY Corrective 2nd wave of a less degree looking for may be 50% pull back to 81.15 //80.95 zone.. Hopefully the Bearish Butterfly is our 1st indicatin of this.


AUDJPY 4hrs 22/08/2012

The bearish butterly worked out nicley and the audjpy has retreated
we are now left with a 50/50 choice up or down as the bulls and bears tussle for power. we aslo have a bullish elwave count from previous post exit @ 82.17