Saturday 28 January 2012
Thursday 26 January 2012
Bearish Sell Gartley
Also because we are still under the Daily 55DMA we are still correctively bearish untill 1.3129 is taken out. A test of the lows is still possiable forming a kind "w" or higher low before taking off. Anyway
4hr view
My Entry 1.3152 Stop @1.3197
waite for a full body close below 1.3108 a sell stop would have saved you from the rally up to the maket high of 1.3174
I twittered earlier on today that the Euro/Usd had reached a market Top @ 1.3174 which was also the Daily’s 55 DMA. Mr Price never really moved beyond this point and then Profit taken took place.
4hr view
Now when i look back i think to my self that makes sence, simple and logical Price action exspecially with the US bad unemployement news, why didn;t i see that before DA!!!
Sometimes I really over Complicate things, when really Mr Price is quite simple.
Still will have to wait and see what market sentiment is tomorrow and whether or not the Greek deals is semented, dried and ready to be laid for a new concrete foundation. Even so in my opinion Greece may get the deal finalised but in my opinion they do not have any real plan for growth or long term strategy of getting themselves out of their tax evading culture? They haven’t mentioned anything or told us about any any long term strategic plan of growth and development for the country. Besides all that they still have to pay back the debt no matter what the interest rate is. If you've heard something that I haven’t Pls let me know.
P.s I also believe it’s the commercial market buying this market up, not the non commercials
By the way i have a New twitter name
its Now Timelessfx
Cheers
Thursday 12 January 2012
Forexpros – U.S. grain futures were higher on Thursday, as a broadly weaker U.S. dollar supported prices ahead of the release of a key monthly U.S. government report on U.S. and global grain supplies.
Agricultural commodities received a lift as risk sentiment improved after closely watched auctions of Spanish and Italian government debt met with solid investor demand and lower yields, easing fears over the fiscal health of the region’s third and fourth largest economies.
The U.S. dollar pulled back from a 16-month high against the euro following the auctions, while the dollar index declined 0.3% to trade at 81.33. A weaker dollar boosts the appeal of U.S. crops to overseas buyers and makes commodities more attractive as an alternative investment.
Meanwhile, traders readjusted positions ahead of the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s closely-watched World Supply and Demand Report due later in the day. USDA January crop reports have, historically, triggered sharp price moves in futures.
On the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, corn futures for March delivery traded at a three-day high of USD6.5763 a bushel, gaining 0.92%.
The USDA report was expected to lower its forecast for U.S. corn stocks to a fresh 16-year low and downgrade crops in Argentina and Brazil, as hot and dry weather conditions in recent weeks damaged crops in those countries.
Elsewhere on the Chicago Board of Trade, soybeans for March delivery rose 0.48% to trade at USD12.0913 a bushel.
Wall Street investment bank Morgan Stanley said in a report that it expected downward revisions to soybean production estimates in Brazil and Argentina of up to 2 million tons each, “owing to developing drought conditions.”
Soybean prices have remained well-supported in recent weeks as dry and hot weather conditions damaged crops in Argentina and Brazil, the world’s second and third largest soy exporters.
South America is major grain exporter and competes with the U.S. for business on the global market. A smaller crop outlook there would likely mean greater demand for U.S. supplies.
Meanwhile, wheat for March delivery jumped 0.8% to trade at a one-week high of USD6.4638 a bushel.
Wheat prices were expected to remain vulnerable as the government report was forecast to show an increase in U.S. winter wheat plantings to the largest in three years.
Corn is the biggest U.S. crop, valued at USD66.7 billion in 2010, followed by soybeans at USD38.9 billion, government figures show. Wheat was fourth at USD13 billion, behind hay.
Currencies took a hit this morning following weaker U.S. economic data. Risk appetite was dampened by fresh data that highlighted the ongoing challenges in the U.S. economy. There have been recent improvements in the labor market and other parts of the economy, but unfortunately, a lower unemployment rate has not translated into stronger consumer spending. We can now understand why Federal Reserve officials have eyed the recent improvements in the U.S. economy with skepticism. According to the latest retail sales figures, consumer spending rose a mere 0.1 percent in December, which is a worrying sign that heavy discounting and the holidays failed to drive enough consumers into the stores. Excluding gas and autos, sales were even worse - experiencing zero growth in December. The biggest drop off in spending was on electronics and general merchandise but gas stations receipts also revised higher just like the prior month's report because spending picked up the last two weeks of the year. Adding salt to the wound were jobless claims which ticked up to 399k from 375k, which is just within an inch of the psychologically significant 400k level. If claims rise back above 400k, investors will start to worry about payroll growth falling sharply in January. USD/JPY remains rock solid - taking the U.S. data in stride but the initial reaction in the other majors reflects everyone's concerns that the end of the year recovery in the U.S. economy was but a mere illusion.
Meanwhile trading in the EUR/USD has been choppy this morning. As expected the European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged at 1.00 percent. Cautiously optimistic comments from ECB President Draghi suggests that for the time being, the central bank is happy with last month's rate cut and liquidity measures and has no plans to ease again in the immediate future. According to Draghi, there are "tentative signs of stabilization" in economy. This morning's European bond auctions show that their LTRO program has been successful but it would be remiss for him to not consider the "substantial downside risks" that still remain especially since the austerity measures by European governments are expected to pose a big risk to growth this year. Although the EUR/USD rallied because Draghi made no mention of more easing, its gains should still be limited because assuming that the central bank has shut the door on more stimulus because two small bond auctions went well, is premature.
Agricultural commodities received a lift as risk sentiment improved after closely watched auctions of Spanish and Italian government debt met with solid investor demand and lower yields, easing fears over the fiscal health of the region’s third and fourth largest economies.
The U.S. dollar pulled back from a 16-month high against the euro following the auctions, while the dollar index declined 0.3% to trade at 81.33. A weaker dollar boosts the appeal of U.S. crops to overseas buyers and makes commodities more attractive as an alternative investment.
Meanwhile, traders readjusted positions ahead of the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s closely-watched World Supply and Demand Report due later in the day. USDA January crop reports have, historically, triggered sharp price moves in futures.
On the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, corn futures for March delivery traded at a three-day high of USD6.5763 a bushel, gaining 0.92%.
The USDA report was expected to lower its forecast for U.S. corn stocks to a fresh 16-year low and downgrade crops in Argentina and Brazil, as hot and dry weather conditions in recent weeks damaged crops in those countries.
Elsewhere on the Chicago Board of Trade, soybeans for March delivery rose 0.48% to trade at USD12.0913 a bushel.
Wall Street investment bank Morgan Stanley said in a report that it expected downward revisions to soybean production estimates in Brazil and Argentina of up to 2 million tons each, “owing to developing drought conditions.”
Soybean prices have remained well-supported in recent weeks as dry and hot weather conditions damaged crops in Argentina and Brazil, the world’s second and third largest soy exporters.
South America is major grain exporter and competes with the U.S. for business on the global market. A smaller crop outlook there would likely mean greater demand for U.S. supplies.
Meanwhile, wheat for March delivery jumped 0.8% to trade at a one-week high of USD6.4638 a bushel.
Wheat prices were expected to remain vulnerable as the government report was forecast to show an increase in U.S. winter wheat plantings to the largest in three years.
Corn is the biggest U.S. crop, valued at USD66.7 billion in 2010, followed by soybeans at USD38.9 billion, government figures show. Wheat was fourth at USD13 billion, behind hay.
Currencies took a hit this morning following weaker U.S. economic data. Risk appetite was dampened by fresh data that highlighted the ongoing challenges in the U.S. economy. There have been recent improvements in the labor market and other parts of the economy, but unfortunately, a lower unemployment rate has not translated into stronger consumer spending. We can now understand why Federal Reserve officials have eyed the recent improvements in the U.S. economy with skepticism. According to the latest retail sales figures, consumer spending rose a mere 0.1 percent in December, which is a worrying sign that heavy discounting and the holidays failed to drive enough consumers into the stores. Excluding gas and autos, sales were even worse - experiencing zero growth in December. The biggest drop off in spending was on electronics and general merchandise but gas stations receipts also revised higher just like the prior month's report because spending picked up the last two weeks of the year. Adding salt to the wound were jobless claims which ticked up to 399k from 375k, which is just within an inch of the psychologically significant 400k level. If claims rise back above 400k, investors will start to worry about payroll growth falling sharply in January. USD/JPY remains rock solid - taking the U.S. data in stride but the initial reaction in the other majors reflects everyone's concerns that the end of the year recovery in the U.S. economy was but a mere illusion.
Meanwhile trading in the EUR/USD has been choppy this morning. As expected the European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged at 1.00 percent. Cautiously optimistic comments from ECB President Draghi suggests that for the time being, the central bank is happy with last month's rate cut and liquidity measures and has no plans to ease again in the immediate future. According to Draghi, there are "tentative signs of stabilization" in economy. This morning's European bond auctions show that their LTRO program has been successful but it would be remiss for him to not consider the "substantial downside risks" that still remain especially since the austerity measures by European governments are expected to pose a big risk to growth this year. Although the EUR/USD rallied because Draghi made no mention of more easing, its gains should still be limited because assuming that the central bank has shut the door on more stimulus because two small bond auctions went well, is premature.
Thursday 5 January 2012
AUDUSD Past and Present
AUDUSD
I Twiitted you guys and girls Yesterday about this Move, It was a nail Biting expereince where the only real thing that kept me sane was the high 4hr Stochastics and the low volume. There was just not enough volume in the Move up to Support a Break out of the Daily High Resistance. Then The Beautiful Bearish Butterfly Turned up Emmm!!
Although this was a good Trade. Still the Question is how to Improve and what were my mistakes on looking back.
1. I wish i had waited a little Longer before entering Becasue it cuts out all the emotions. is it gonna do it is not gonna do it ...She Love Me She Love Me Not ..you feel me..
I entered this trade @ 18:14 ..1//4/2012
Although we caught the intial drop the bigger move came later @ D with a break of the Long term Trigger lIne
So just a little bit more Patience and remember the 4ps
Practice Pure Patience Produces Pure Profit
Check out the Previous Post on the AUDUSD oh and daily Chart is Below
Cheers Guys and Gals hope you made them pips
Wednesday 4 January 2012
NEW YORK -(Dow Jones)- The Australian dollar
By Stephen L. Bernard
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
NEW YORK -(Dow Jones)- The Australian dollar hits a two-month high against its U.S. counterpart Tuesday in the first U.S. trading session of the new year.
A strong appetite for risk has pushed the U.S. currency lower across the board, particularly against commodity-linked currencies such as the Australian dollar. The Australian dollar rose to a two-month high of $1.0388 Tuesday, its highest level since Nov. 9, according to CQG.
Upbeat economic data from around the world to start the year has buoyed risk sentiment. The Institute for Supply Management's U.S. manufacturing index rose more than expected in December, climbing to 53.9. Economists had forecast a reading of 53.5.
-By Stephen L. Bernard, Dow Jones Newswires; 212-416-4528; stephen.bernard@dowjones.com
Pivot: 1.0385
TT Preference: SHORT position below 1.0385 with 0.9650 & 0.9385 in sight.
Other Scenario: Above 1.0385 up move to 1.0725.
Comment: the RSI has struck against a major resistance around 70% and is reversing down.
HARMONY
NEW YORK -(Dow Jones)- The Australian dollar hits a two-month high against its U.S. counterpart Tuesday in the first U.S. trading session of the new year.
A strong appetite for risk has pushed the U.S. currency lower across the board, particularly against commodity-linked currencies such as the Australian dollar. The Australian dollar rose to a two-month high of $1.0388 Tuesday, its highest level since Nov. 9, according to CQG.
Upbeat economic data from around the world to start the year has buoyed risk sentiment. The Institute for Supply Management's U.S. manufacturing index rose more than expected in December, climbing to 53.9. Economists had forecast a reading of 53.5.
-By Stephen L. Bernard, Dow Jones Newswires; 212-416-4528; stephen.bernard@dowjones.com
Pivot: 1.0385
TT Preference: SHORT position below 1.0385 with 0.9650 & 0.9385 in sight.
Other Scenario: Above 1.0385 up move to 1.0725.
Comment: the RSI has struck against a major resistance around 70% and is reversing down.
BusinessWeek - 2 hours ago
BusinessWeek - 2 hours ago
By Sarah Shannon Jan. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Next Plc, the UK's second-largest clothing retailer, reported “disappointing” holiday sales and forecast slack profit growth next year as the euro-debt crisis and a credit squeeze restrict consumer spending. ...
By Sarah Shannon Jan. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Next Plc, the UK's second-largest clothing retailer, reported “disappointing” holiday sales and forecast slack profit growth next year as the euro-debt crisis and a credit squeeze restrict consumer spending. ...
GBPUSD bullish butterfly Aftermath.
GBPUSD bullish butterfly Aftermath. i entered @ 54230 and scaled out at 1.5591
didn't which is why i tweeted i was lookin for a short in the next session, however short did not present itself untill .....see below
Tried the short with a small gain ..£ to strong second lot taken out at break even @ 1.5652
Tuesday 3 January 2012
fx360
Risk FX caught a bid on the first full trading day of the new year after better than expected Manufacturing PMI numbers in Asia and strong labor data from Germany lifted investor sentiment, allaying fears of an imminent global slowdown. In China the official PMI Manufacturing data printed at 50.3 returning above the boom/bust line after dipping below it in November. In Australia the AIG PMI data was also better than expected recording a reading of 50.2 versus 47.8 the month prior.
The Australian manufacturing report was particularly positive as in managed to climb back in to expansionary territory for the first time in six months. The news helped to propel the Aussie above the 1.0300 level while EUR/USD climbed above 1.3000 boosted by better German labor data. German unemployment saw a further reduction in jobless rolls of -22k versus -9K forecast as the jobless rate fell to a 20 year low.
Despite the turmoil in the region’s credit markets the real economy in Germany continues to operate much better than expected and so far the contagion from the financial markets has not occurred contrary to the prediction of euro shorts. The pair climbed steadily above the 1.3000 level through early morning European trade and could target the 1.3050 level later in the day if North American flows prove supportive.
In UK the PMI report was also better than expected printing at 49.6 versus 47.4 as manufacturing activity stabilized into the last month of the year. Nevertheless, despite the better than projected headline number the sector remains mired in contraction and will likely weigh on Q4 UK GDP. Adding further concern to the outlook was the very weak new orders subcomponent which printed at 46.0 suggesting that business in Q1 may be considerably more challenging. Cable rose to 1.5590 on the news but so far failed to clear the 1.5600 barrier underperforming the rest of the high beta currencies.
In North America today the focus turns to the ISM Manufacturing report due at 1500 GMT. The market anticipates an improvement to 53.3 from 52.7 and given the recent strength in the regional indices including Philly and Chicago, chances are good that the national data could surprise to the upside. If the ISM does show a marked improvement it should help extend the risk rally that started in Asian and could push EUR/USD towards the 1.3100 level as the day proceeds.
The Australian manufacturing report was particularly positive as in managed to climb back in to expansionary territory for the first time in six months. The news helped to propel the Aussie above the 1.0300 level while EUR/USD climbed above 1.3000 boosted by better German labor data. German unemployment saw a further reduction in jobless rolls of -22k versus -9K forecast as the jobless rate fell to a 20 year low.
Despite the turmoil in the region’s credit markets the real economy in Germany continues to operate much better than expected and so far the contagion from the financial markets has not occurred contrary to the prediction of euro shorts. The pair climbed steadily above the 1.3000 level through early morning European trade and could target the 1.3050 level later in the day if North American flows prove supportive.
In UK the PMI report was also better than expected printing at 49.6 versus 47.4 as manufacturing activity stabilized into the last month of the year. Nevertheless, despite the better than projected headline number the sector remains mired in contraction and will likely weigh on Q4 UK GDP. Adding further concern to the outlook was the very weak new orders subcomponent which printed at 46.0 suggesting that business in Q1 may be considerably more challenging. Cable rose to 1.5590 on the news but so far failed to clear the 1.5600 barrier underperforming the rest of the high beta currencies.
In North America today the focus turns to the ISM Manufacturing report due at 1500 GMT. The market anticipates an improvement to 53.3 from 52.7 and given the recent strength in the regional indices including Philly and Chicago, chances are good that the national data could surprise to the upside. If the ISM does show a marked improvement it should help extend the risk rally that started in Asian and could push EUR/USD towards the 1.3100 level as the day proceeds.
Monday 2 January 2012
Bullish Butterfly GBPUSD
GBPUSD 4hrs will it hold support Zone
in the new year as evry return back from Vacation
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