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Timeless Trading: Shhhh!!!!EurChf Daily in a possiable Stage of Acc...

Timeless Trading: Shhhh!!!!EurChf Daily in a possiable Stage of Acc...: Been Tracking This 1 4 since yesterday although still early i placed a small track just to monitor Price Action. Keeping a close eye on d...

DAILY

news

EUR/CHF continued to be bounded in range of 1.2031/2127 last week, engaged in sideway trading. As noted before, a short term bottom is in place at 1.2031 but there is no scope for a rebound yet 1.2132 resistance intact. EUR/CHF would possibly engage in range trading between 1.2 and 1.2132 in the near term. On the downside, we'd maintain that SNB should remain determined to defend the 1.2 floor in the cross. Hence, any downside should be contained there. EUR/CHF remains in a "buy zone". But the timing of rebound could be until confirmation of the next SNB president and when markets revive speculation of SNB raising the 1.2 floor. When that happens, EUR/CHF would likely be pushed through 1.2132 resistance back towards 1.25 level.

In the long term picture,after SNB intervention, the long term down trend in EUR/CHF is put into a halt at 1.0061. While the whole rebound from 1.0061 was strong, there is no scope of trend reversal yet. And, we'd expect strong resistance inside 1.2399/3243 resistance zone to limit upside unless there is a drastic turn in risk sentiments. But in any case, downside should be contained above 1.2, the floor set by SNB.

22/02/2012
exit long eurchf

Shhhh!!!!EurChf Daily in a possiable Stage of Accumulation

Been Tracking This 1 4 since yersterday although still early i placed a small track just to monitor Price Action. Keeping a close eye on development.

USDCHF seducetively Beautifull Bearish Butterfly

USDCHF Beautifull Bearish Butterfly, love the angles on this 1, still i will not be  just yet need more ocnfirmation but keeping a close eye on this 1,

Got some doji's However we are bullish 4hrs and this may only be a retracement to continue Bull objectivefor higher prices, we have a rounding bottom. so in looking at the overall story i may use this signal to extablish long position.

Pls comment

On Sterling, UK Inflation & few charts

Read this 1st

http://ashraflaidi.com/ hot-chart/ ?a=3117

Exchange Rates

The Real Exchange Rate

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If you put 100 pounds in a bank, and earn 8% interest over the year (eight pounds interest), this is only the nominal rate of interest. What you really get - the real rate of interest - depends on the rate of inflation as well. If inflation was running at 5% over the year, then the real rate of interest was only 3% (8% − 5%). Your 100 pounds became 108 pounds, but goods and services costing 100 pounds a year ago now cost 105 pounds. In real terms you have only really made 3 pounds.

The nominal exchange rate between, say, the pound and the dollar is simply the amount of dollars you can buy for each pound as dictated by the price in the foreign exchange markets. To find the real exchange rate, we have to allow for relative inflation rates in the two countries, just as you do with interest rates, of growth, or spending, or incomes or anything where the price rises distort the picture.

In this case, the picture that is being distorted is the UK's competitiveness, in terms if trade, with other countries. If the trade weighted index for sterling fell by, say, 5% over a given year, this would make UK manufacturers' exports 5% cheaper in foreign countries. If sterling falls, UK manufacturers are happy! But if, over the same period of time, prices in the UK rose by 5%, the benefit in terms of the reduced value of the pound for UK manufacturers would be cancelled out by the higher domestic prices.

The real exchange rate tries to take relative changes in countries' inflation rates into account. Look at the formula below:

In this formula, the 'world' price level is an average of the price levels of the sixteen countries that are included in the trade weighted effective exchange rate. Assume that the UK's effective exchange rate stays constant over a given year. If UK inflation is 10% over that year, and world inflation is only 7%, then the real exchange rate will rise by roughly 3% (10% − 7%). The exact rise would be 2.8%. See if you can work out why it is not exactly 3%. Read through the following example, trying to understand the principles,click to reveal answer when you have finished.

Assume that the RPI in the UK is 100 and the RPI for the rest of the world also happens to be 100. Hence:

In the example above, we said that UK inflation was 10% over the given year. This gives a new RPI of 110. In the same way, the new RPI for the rest of the world will be 107. So the new ratio of price levels will be:

So the ratio has risen by 0.028. As a percentage (multiplying by 100) this is 2.8%.

The problem for the UK during the 70s and 80s was that, regardless of how low the effective exchange rate was, its inflation rate tended to be higher than the world average. This caused the real exchange rate to rise (for a given effective exchange rate), making UK exports relatively more expensive abroad and so less competitive pricewise

http://www.s-cool.co.uk/category/subjects/a-level/economics/exchange-rates

GBPUSD CHANNEL DWN BREAK OUT ? Luv U Market Makers

GBPUSD CHANNEL DWN BREAK OUT ?

ON BAD NEWS Love you Market Makers

As Market Makers create the Market

As maket makers create the Market Up i am positioned to sell with them

gbpusd

GB/USD 4hr view

Another view GBPUSD 4hrs
£ falls to raising medium Line@ 1.57241.. Will we fall through or bounce up

AUDUSD Daily and 4hr chart

Aud/usd Daily

4hr Chart


Today 15/02/2012

Tricky 1

but i sold the fake move by the market makers

News:

Daily over view

Price Action

• USD/JPY ranges between 77.5--77.75
• AUD/USD runs through 1.0750 on better risk flows
• GBP/USD stalls at 1.5800
• EUR/USD stalls ahead of 1.3300

 Euro advances on relief over Greek parliament vote
    * Hurdles remain ahead of euro zone finmins meeting
    * Voluntary private-sector involvement a worry

    By Luciana Lopez 
    NEW YORK, Feb 13 (Reuters) - The euro rose against the
dollar in light trading on Monday after Greece approved new
austerity measures, but worries about   hurdles in the country's
bid to avoid a disorderly default ate into gains .  
    The Greek parliament passed a package of wage,
pension and job cuts on Sunday, boosting hopes that Athens would
secure more rescue funds from the European Union and
International Monetary Fund ahead of a March bond redemption.
  
    "You got that knee-jerk positive reaction (in the euro), and
that's ultimately starting to fade right now," said Brian Dolan,
chief currency strategist at Forex.com. 
    "There's market suspicion that Greece will meet the targets
it's setting itself, and that we're going to be seeing a replay
of this several months down the road," he added.  
    Markets aren't the only skeptics. Greece must also convince
euro zone finance ministers, who meet on Wednesday. 
    The ministers still require Greece to explain how 325
million euros of this year's total budget cuts will be achieved
before they agree to the 130 billion euro bailout.  
    "We think that Greece is going to get their money by March
20, but we still think the euro's going to sell off," said David
Watt, senior currency strategist at RBC Capital Markets in
Toronto. 
    Volumes were light, analysts said. 
    "Most people are just keeping their heads down, they're
doing things when they have to do it," Watt added. 
    The euro was up 0.36 percent at $1.3220, off a
session high of $1.3283. The single currency faces resistance at
last week's two-month high of $1.3322 and the 100-day moving
average at $1.3325, while traders said a large option expiry at
$1.3300 was likely to restrict further intra-day gains. 
    Analysts at Commerzbank said their euro/dollar order book
model showed a greater density of sell orders at current levels,
adding the $1.3090 area was where the balance became more
neutral, and any downside move may run out of steam there.  
   
   
    Traders were also wary of pushing the euro higher because of
uncertainty over whether private creditors would agree to write
down the value of their Greek holdings. Doubts persist whether
the necessary near-100 percent acceptance can be achieved
without triggering a credit default. 
    "Voluntary private sector participation is unlikely to be at
the levels the IMF and European authorities are looking for and
this is one of the reasons for our bearish view on the euro,"
said Chris Walker, currency strategist at UBS.  
    Even if a voluntary agreement is reached, a debt swap could
take three to four weeks to finalize, leaving a tight deadline
before Greece faces a March 20 bond redemption of nearly 15
billion euros. 
    The euro gave up early gains versus the yen to
trade near flat at 102.32 yen. 
     
    BROKEN PROMISES 
    Germany's finance minister, Wolfgang Schaeuble, said in an
interview with German newspaper Welt am Sonntag that Greek
promises on austerity measures were no longer good enough
because so many vows had been broken.  
    Still, Greece effectively voting to stay in the euro by
passing the measure has provided short-term relief to investors. 
    Fear of a major banking crisis has also subsided as the
European Central Bank was set to provide an unlimited amount of
three-year loans later this month after its first operation in
December. 
    The bank's second offer of three-year funds to banks will
draw 500 billion euros of bids, a Reuters poll of traders
showed, topping the 400 billion predicted in the same poll last
week.  
    Analysts said these factors have prompted institutional
investors to scale back on bearish positions in the euro. But
any bounce above $1.35 could see fresh shorts established. 
    Speculators have been cutting their net euro short positions
for the past two weeks, to 140,593 contracts last week from a
record 171,347 contracts two weeks previously.  
    "If euro/dollar goes up to $1.35, it would be a good level
to short it," said Stuart Frost, head of absolute returns and
currency at fund manager RWC Partners. "Once it gets down to
$1.30 people will again buy it. So it's a range play."

GBPUSD daily bearish Butterfly

Hi with so much going on in the news of late its hard to tell whether this patter will work or not. as
Mr Price is advocating a bullish view for the pound. We are above the weekly pivot of 1.57064, however could the rally be exhasted as the Daily stochastics suggests and the daily fractal points out a high @ 1.5897. the market is not giving away many clues as a possiable drop or Raise squares up as 50/50 bulls and bears. Still on the safe side i will have to say we are above the 55DMA and the 8DMA so any move to the down side is classed as corrective.
untill 1.5576 is broken
i've entered @ 1.58114 with a breakeven stop.

wow pattern still in play

The UK currency was expected to be kept in check ahead of a
Bank of England inflation report on Wednesday that may give
clues on the likelihood of more monetary easing. 

 The BoE last week pumped another 50 billion pounds into the
economy to try to stimulate growth under its quantitative easing
(QE) programme. Although the central bank sounded a little less
pessimistic about the economy, investors were wary of building
bullish bets before Wednesday's report.  

 "It looks like pressure is on the pound until we get through
the Inflation Report on Wednesday morning," said Lee McDarby,
head of corporate dealing at Investec Bank.  

 "It wouldn't be surprising to see more QE from the Bank of
England in the months ahead." 

 Morgan Stanley analysts told clients that they aimed to sell
sterling at higher levels towards $1.5960, with a target of
$1.5460, given the prospect of further QE and the UK's large
exposure to the euro zone. 

 Inflation data on Tuesday will also be key and is expected
to show a further dip in UK price pressures in January. 
Lower inflation would make it easier for BoE policymakers to
justify further monetary easing as their forecasts have shown
prices dropping back sharply from highs hit last year.

GBPUSD 4HR TIME FRAME

EUR 4HR TRIANGLE ?

                                                 TOP DECLINING , BOTTOM RISING

If this move works the SM (smart money) might try and fake every one on good news and sell at Resistance

 Just in case Daily trade is on the up side this morning so be careful Waite for clear signal.

Eurusd Daily Elwave count

EURUSD Daily

On the upside above the weekly pivot of 1.31111 we are still now correctly bullish as Mr price is above the 55DMA on the 4hr time frame and kissing the daily with a target break out above 1.3233
I believe on the elwave front  we are currently in the 4th wave up. with a  4th wave exit is currently @ 1.3230 .
on the down side a break of 1.3020/60 we should see the decline in to the 5th wave down begin  the only thing is wave 4 can still extened up to the 1.40 area which is the june 30 2011 consoldation zone low wave 1 and the 4th wave can not go beyond wave 1

At the moment Supply volume strenght to the downsid is not on the cards not sure what we are waiting for? and Prices have been kept upabove the weekly pivot
Possiably we are still in the accumlation phase setting us up for distrubition
i'll waite for a clear signal with over brought stochastics 1hr and 4hr before attempting a sell. at the moment neutral

o

 Comments welcome
:-0