Eur/usd Wkly, Daily 4hrs, Hrly Chart Update Comment and Eur Consumer Confidence Numbers later today

              

Eur/usd Wkly
June 26, 2013 – EUR/USD (daily chart below) has dropped down to key support around the major 1.3000 figure, establishing a new 3-week low for the currency pair. Today’s drop continues the dramatic decline that has been in place since price turned bearish after reaching up to 1.3400-area resistance one week ago. Having just reached down

Daily TF

to 1.3000 on a sharp downside move, the pair is now at a critical price juncture. Continued bearish momentum could be expected as the pair trades below 1.3000, with a clear downside objective around the 1.2800 support area, last hit in mid-May. A subsequent move below 1.2800 would confirm a bearish continuation, with further downside objectives around 1.2650 and then 1.2450. Within the context of the current down trend, strong upside resistance continues to reside around the 1.3150 area, to which the pair retraced back up and respected on Tuesday.

4hrs TF

a Break of 1.30061 Wkly support 1 should keep the bears in control targeting 1.2950 then 1,2893

        1hrly TF

           

However i am expecting the bulls to put up a little fight as the Dollar index reaches it Highs and if you note the dollar index is above the 55 daily moving indicating a sentiment shift for dollar strength.so the perfect scenario   would be to wait for a really to sell @ 1,3047 near the falling trend line for a continued decline, however a break of this area could give the bulls some encouragement.

There are aa few FOMC voters speaking tomorrow and

The  Eurozone and U.S. calendar, looks like there can be some great moves in the next 24 hours   and prove to be vital for the euro. 

A large part of the sell-off in the EUR/USD from its high of 1.34 on June 19th to its low of 1.2985 today was driven by re-pricing of FOMC expectations which means tomorrow's speeches by FOMC voters Dudley and Powell are extremely important. All 3 of these members lean towards a more dovish monetary policy stance and if they support Bernanke's view that asset purchases should be tapered this year, the EUR/USD could drop to its next level of support at 1.2935 as the trader dive in to the dollar and push the weakening euro towards  possibly to 1.2893 (although we feel that losses should be contained to that level). 

However if any of these 2 FOMC voters express  second thoughts or reservations about Bernanke's timing on reducing asset purchases, the EUR/USD could make its way back up to 1.31.

Eurusd calender 

German unemployment and Eurozone confidence numbers are also scheduled for release tomorrow and the outcome of these reports will impact the market's expectations for ECB policy and in turn the euro. If the data is good, then the central bank's threat to increase stimulus will fall on deaf ears.  Just this morning ECB President Draghi reminded everyone that the central bank stands ready to act if necessary.  Unfortunately based on the latest PMI numbers, labor market conditions most likely deteriorated in the month of June and if the data is weak, confirming that ECB policy will trail far behind the Fed, the euro could find itself trading closer to 1.29. In terms of confidence, it will be tough call since there has been both strength and weakness in the latest IFO and ZEW surveys.  These numbers shouldn't be as important as German unemployment.

06:00	DE	EUR	Import Price Index (YoY) (May)	1		-2.8%	-3.2%
06:45	FR	EUR	Consumer Confidence (Jun)	1		81	79
07:00	ES	EUR	HICP (YoY) (Jun)Preliminar	1		2.1%	1.8%
07:00	ES	EUR	Retail Sales (YoY) (May)	1			-4.7%
07:55	DE	EUR	Unemployment Change (Jun)	3		8K	21K
07:55	DE	EUR	Unemployment Rate s.a. (Jun)	3		6.9%	6.9%