Eurusd weekly Analysis and Economic data

Daily 

1. German Ifo Business Climate: Monday, 8:00. German business sentient increased unexpectedly in May to 105.7 points from 104.4 points in April amid improvement in businesses and growing optimistic about the future. The increase came after two straight declines. Another rise to 106 is expected.
2.  Belgium NBB Business Climate: Monday, 13:00. Belgian business confidence, improved more than expected in May, rising to -12.4 from -14.7 in April amid gains in construction and business-related services sectors. Economists expected a minor rise to -13.4.  A further advance to -11.1 is expected now.
3. Italian Retail Sales: Tuesday, 8:00. Retail sales edged down 0.3% in March, after declining 0.2% in February. The drop was contrary to predictions of a 0.3% increase. On a year-on-year basis, retail sales dropped 3.0% in March after registering a 4.8% fall in February. No change is expected this time.
4. GfK German Consumer Climate: Wednesday, 6:00. German Consumer Sentiment is expected to reach 5-year high of 6.5 in June, according to GfK forecast, amid improvement in the job market and lower inflation boosting consumer spending. Households were the main factor behind Germany’s 0.1% growth in the first quarter. Gfk projects recovery will continue in 2013 at a moderate pace. Another rise to 6.6 is forecasted.
5. German Import Prices: Thursday, 8:00. Import prices in Germany fell 1.4% in April, worse than the 0.2% projected, following a 0.1% dip in March. However, on an annual bases, import prices fell 3.2% in April after a 2.3% decline in March affected by the slow Eurozone recovery. A decline of 0.1% is predicted.
6. German Unemployment Change: Thursday, 7:55. German unemployment list increased more than expected in May adding 21,000 to 2.963 million, however the unemployment rate remained low. Economists estimated a small rise of 4,000. Nevertheless, the overall the German labor market is still in a good condition. A small increase of 6,000 is expected this time.
7. M3 Money Supply: Thursday, 8:00. The Eurozone M3 money supply index for April 2013 increased 3.0%, beating the median estimate of 2.9%. The annual M3 seasonally adjusted for April registered an increase of 3.2% above expectations of 2.9% better than the preceding month’s reading of 2.6%. A gain of 2.9% is projected now.
8. Retail PMI: Thursday, 8:10. The Purchasing Managers Index for traders in the Eurozone edged up to an eight-month high of 46.8 following 44.2 in the previous month but still remains below the 50 point line, indicating contraction. Overall retail in the euro area remained in contraction in May.
9. EU Economic Summit: Thu-Fri. The two-day EU summit in Brussels will discuss unemployment, especially youth unemployment since joblessness in the EU continues to rise. Germany will likely refrain from further loans to its EU neighbors due to the approaching elections in September. Therefore the important decisions are likely to be postponed until the next EU meeting in December.
10. German Retail Sales: Friday, 8:00. German retail sales dropped 0.4% in April following a 0.5% dip in the previous month missing market predictions of a 0.3% rise. The possible reason behind the weaker-than-expected reading is that the cold winter was prolonged this year pushing prices for seasonal vegetables higher, causing households to cut back on spending. Retail sales are expected to advance 0.4% in May.
11. German CPI: Friday. Consumer prices edged up 0.4% in May, beating predictions for a 0.2% rise, adding 0.3% to the annual inflation rate which now stands at 1.5 percent, its highest level since February. This increase was preceded by a 0.5% decline in April. The main pressure on prices was apparent in package vacations while energy bills dropped sharply. Nevertheless the ECB does not have to be concerned with rising inflation. No change is forecast. German inflation has a strong influence on the ECB.
12. French Consumer Spending: Friday, 8:45. Consumer spending in France, declined less than expected in April, down 0.3% from a 1.3% gain in March. Food expenditure declined 3.3% from March. Car sales increased 1.8% in April. Rising unemployment hinders a recovery in consumer spending, which in turn affects the overall economic expansion. Consumer spending is expected to remain unchanged this month. fxcrunch

4hr View 

Scale Down to the hrly time Frame

FXcrunch View 

The Fed said its word and it is dollar positive. While the move could have been a bit overdone, the US dollar is expected to remain bid. If no disaster happens, the next move in the US is a reduction of the pace of monetary stimulus rather than an increase.

Even if euro-zone numbers are not always that bad, the economy is still squeezing and more monetary stimulus cannot be ruled out. Current expectations for the July rate decision are for no big changes. If we get weaker indicators or dovish talk, the euro could tumble lower.