Worries in the Dance for the Eurusd

EURUSD 19/11/2012

The EUR/USD closed the week at 1.2743 off of the low of the week at 1.2662. The US dollar remained strong both on positive eco data and risk aversion trades with the DX hitting recent highs. Even after President Obama’s re-election the dollar was able to remain positive. Towards the end of the week the pair turned around a bit, as Mr. Obama took a very aggressive stand with the Republicans, and the weekly unemployment and the monthly retail sales disappointed, but markets wrote this off to superstorm sandy which closed the east coast.

The euro saw little headway in the debt crisis, with Greece being put off until November 20th and Spain just lingering. Markets were positive after Greece was able to refinance its debts that were due out of their own coffers. The euro tumbled into a technical recession but market sentiment was already negative so there was little response.
A report due next week is forecast to show an index euro- area services and manufacturing output contracted for a tenth month in November. A compositeindexbased on a survey of purchasing managers in both industries was 45.9 this month, from 45.7 in October, London-based Markit Economics will say on Nov. 22, according to the median estimate of 20 analysts in a Bloomberg News survey. A reading below 50 indicates contraction.
Germany is scheduled to sell 4 billion euros of 10-year bunds on Nov. 21, while Spain plans to auction securities maturing between 2015 and 2021 a day later.
In the U.S., both the New York and Philadelphia manufacturing indices contracted in November this week. And on Thursday, the unemployment claims ending the week of 10 November rose by 78,000 due to the impact of Hurricane Sandy.
Also Thursday, weaker prices were supported by the release of the third quarter gold demand report by the World Gold Council, which showed that global gold demand dropped 11% year-over-year to 1,084.6 tonnes in the third quarter, as Chinese demand weakened.
Important data to watch out for next week, include Ben Bernanke’s speech in New York, the October US housing starts, and the Bank of Japan interest rate meeting on November 20. The EU Summit and the Eurozone November flash PMI index are also slated for November 22.
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Summary

• Greece runs Out of money by the end of November
• Politions in disagreeemnt
• Christine Laggard head of the IMF states that they are working on a permenat fix to the Greece situation
• Barack Obama was face to face with cogresional leaders for the frist time over the fiscal cliff whichh means worries and more pressure on the us markets snce the election major indices were downmore than 5% across the board.

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Euro, GBP, CHF and the USD

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Forecast	Previous
Nov. 19	15:00	USD	Existing Home Sales	4.75M	4.75M
Nov. 20	13:30	USD	Building Permits	0.865M	0.890M
	13:30	USD	Housing Starts	0.840M	0.872M
Nov. 21	13:30	USD	Initial Jobless Claims	400K	439K
	13:30	USD	Continuing Jobless Claims	3338K	3334K
	14:55	USD	Michigan Consumer Sentiment	84.5	84.9
Nov. 22	01:45	CNY	Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI		49.50
	07:58	EUR	French Manufacturing PMI		43.7
	08:28	EUR	German Manufacturing PMI		46.0
	11:00	GBP	CBI Industrial Trends Orders	-19	-23
Nov. 23	07:00	EUR	German GDP (QoQ)		0.2%
	07:00	EUR	German GDP (YoY)		0.4%
	09:00	EUR	German Ifo Business Climate Index	99.5	100.0
	09:00	EUR	German Current Assessment	106.3	107.3
	09:00	EUR	German Business Expectations	93.2	93.2