Audusd 4hrs back in play?

lOOKING TO LONG THIS PAIR AT E 1.3000

however still aware that down ward channel still exist and looming with possiable
 instrest cuts from the RBA need to watch for CPI figuers

Aussie is so far the weakest currency this week as weighed down by mild risk aversion and weak PPI data. PPI unexpectedly dropped -0.3% in Q1 versus expectation of 0.5% qoq rise. Year-over-year rate also slowed sharply from 2.9% to 1.4% versus consensus of 2.2%. The data confirmed that there is no upstream price pressures in the Australia economy. Tuesday's CPI data will be closely watched and is expected to show 0.7% qoq rise in Q1. Markets are widely expecting 25bps cut in next week's RBA meeting. Weak CPI data will add to speculation that RBA would either cut 50bps this month, or by another 25bps next month

however

Australian dollar: The net long position increased by about 9k contracts to 48.4k. Longs grew for the first time in a month (4k). Shorts were cut by 5k contracts. The Australian dollar recorded the week's lows on April 17 and retested it just before the the weekend.

The Reserve Bank of Australia is the only G10 central bank, besides the BOJ, to be set to ease monetary policy. Although the inflation figures due out in the coming days are seen as key, the collapse of the terms of trade in Q1 would seem to suggests an easing of price pressures. Market indications, such as the Overnight Index Swaps (OIS) suggest that almost 100 bp has been discounted over the next 12-months. Here too the technical factors seem more supportive than fundamentals. A move now above $1.0420 would suggest a bottom is in place and encourage momentum players to look for $1.05-$1.06.

24/04/2012
Results from the CPI data cause anf effect

hey are the big boyz pulling this pair back into play?

Australian inflation printed markedly cooler than expectations sending Aussie lower in Asian session trade. On a quarterly basis Australian CPI came in at 0.1% versus 0.7% forecast while Trimmed mean CPI was 0.3% versus 0.6% anticipated. On a yearly basis the trimmed-mean inflation rate dropped to 2.2% from 2.6% and the weighted-median rate fell to 2.1% from 2.5%.

The substantial reduction in the rate of inflation  was driven by lower food and travel costs while energy, education and pharmaceutical costs continued to rise. Overall the sharp reduction in the yearly rate of inflation of 40 basis points suggests that a rate cut from the RBA is nearly assured at the next meeting in May. Presently the market is pricing nearly 100bp in rate cuts from the RBA by year end which would significantly reduce Aussie’s interest rate advantage  in the G10 universe.

The AUD/USD  fell to a session low of 1.0247 in morning Asian trade but managed to stay above the yearly lows of 1.0225 rebounding to 1.0290 in early  European dealing. For the time being the market appears to have priced in the immediate 25bp rate cut and the pair could rally towards the 1.0300 level if risk flows turn positive for the rest of the day.  However, the longer term picture for Aussie remains quite negative as the pair continues to lose its attraction on the carry trade basis  with every new reduction in the benchmark rate. A test of yearly lows at 1.0225 could open the way for a move towards parity over the intermediate term horizon.       fx360 news