USDCHF

Pair: USDCHF
Date : 26/07/2011


News:
The longer the US makers dither on the debt ceiling deal, the greater the sense of anxiety in the currency markets. USD/CHF remains the primary beneficiary of safe harbor flows and the pair is coming increasingly close to the key .8000 figure as traders continue to fear the prospect of total disarray should US lawmakers fail to extend the debt ceiling before the August 2nd deadline. The US has already sustained a tremendous amount of reputational damage throughout this Congressional debate and if authorities are unable to come to a workable compromise within the next few days the selling pressure in USD/CHF could cascade into full blow panic as financial markets lose faith in United States ability to govern itself.




On the other hand, with positioning highly skewed to the downside, any prospect of a deal should trigger a strong short covering rally as markets breathe a temporary sigh of relief. With little economic data to drive trade FX will remain hostage to headline risk as all eyes turn to Washington DC.


Technical’s:
4hr Bullish Butterfly
 Mr price is at the Base of the Poseidon Line eyeing the middle of the Poseidon line @ 0.81180
Low stochastics but not confirmed bullish
Flat RSi
MACD Bearish but higher than the 14th July 2011


Strategie: Elwave Scerniro


Strong Multi wave down. However Becasuse of the Bullish Butterfly Patter on the 4hr Time frame
Leads me to believe that a 4th wave correction could possiably be in play 1st target 0.81180 then
2nd target 0.82100 which comes in line with 38.2 Retracement
This depends on the neews and if the use can take advantage and bring a short term rally..


Success :  38%


Light trade
Entry 0.80398
Stop 0.80000
Target: 0.81180 2nd Target:0.82055


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Conclusions and concerns