Gold critical area Payday Friday

Gold has fallen to its lowest level Since 2010 this morning to under 1,200
1.200 is what it cost most miners to produce an ounce of Gold 
European markets extended gains to a third session yesterday 
Greece is again in the spotlight after the national bank of Greece shares fell 24%

USDJPY is the market just resting for another push or is more down side in play

 

Daily USDJPY 

Keeping  a close eye on the USDJPY as the Corrective Move to the upside may be coming to
 and End as Price action  hesitates with a number of doji's 97.56 i've marked as an initial break here will indicate the Andrews pitch fork downside momentum is under way


on the 4hr time frame I've found an A-B-C Pattern A @ 98.66 B 96.95 @  C @ 98.23
if USDJPY continues to fall 96.95 break should complete pattern
However a break of the trigger Line marked out will suggest more upside potential to test the highs 98.66/100.17 /103

GBPUSD ahead of GDP

Daily 

4hrs

     

The sterling remained apathetic to the BoE’s Financial Stability Report and Osborne’s Spending Review, while it seems to be more affected by MPC’s Miles, who advocated for further easing. The pound is also taking the hit after dovish comments by ECB’s Draghi. Camilla Sutton, Strategist at Scotiabank noted that the outlook on the pair remains bearish in the short term, adding “with most signals in sell territory and spot suggesting building downside momentum. In addition, spot has broken through the 50-day MA of 1.5387 and now flirting with a break of the 100-day MA at 1.5312. We expect further near-term weakness with a test down to 1.5200 in the near-term”. Recall that the bank holds a year-end target of 1.45 for GBP/USD.

GBP/USD critical levels

The pair is down 0.39%  immediate support at 1.5300 (psychological level) ahead of 1.5293 (50% of 1.4832-1.5753) and then 1.5290 (low Jun.5). 

   1hrly 

Economic Data Could see the a relief rally in the £ see below

08:30	UK	GBP	BOE Credit Conditions Survey (Q2)	1
08:30	UK	GBP	Current Account (Q1)	2		£-11.800B	£-14.037B
08:30	UK	GBP	Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (Q1)	3		0.3%	0.3%
08:30	UK	GBP	Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (Q1)	3		0.6%	0.6%
08:30	UK	GBP	Total Business Investment (YoY) (Q1)	2
08:30	UK	GBP	Total Business Investment (QoQ) (Q1)	1		-0.4%	-0.8%

Eur/usd Wkly, Daily 4hrs, Hrly Chart Update Comment and Eur Consumer Confidence Numbers later today

              

Eur/usd Wkly
June 26, 2013 – EUR/USD (daily chart below) has dropped down to key support around the major 1.3000 figure, establishing a new 3-week low for the currency pair. Today’s drop continues the dramatic decline that has been in place since price turned bearish after reaching up to 1.3400-area resistance one week ago. Having just reached down

Daily TF

to 1.3000 on a sharp downside move, the pair is now at a critical price juncture. Continued bearish momentum could be expected as the pair trades below 1.3000, with a clear downside objective around the 1.2800 support area, last hit in mid-May. A subsequent move below 1.2800 would confirm a bearish continuation, with further downside objectives around 1.2650 and then 1.2450. Within the context of the current down trend, strong upside resistance continues to reside around the 1.3150 area, to which the pair retraced back up and respected on Tuesday.

4hrs TF

a Break of 1.30061 Wkly support 1 should keep the bears in control targeting 1.2950 then 1,2893

        1hrly TF

           

However i am expecting the bulls to put up a little fight as the Dollar index reaches it Highs and if you note the dollar index is above the 55 daily moving indicating a sentiment shift for dollar strength.so the perfect scenario   would be to wait for a really to sell @ 1,3047 near the falling trend line for a continued decline, however a break of this area could give the bulls some encouragement.

There are aa few FOMC voters speaking tomorrow and

The  Eurozone and U.S. calendar, looks like there can be some great moves in the next 24 hours   and prove to be vital for the euro. 

A large part of the sell-off in the EUR/USD from its high of 1.34 on June 19th to its low of 1.2985 today was driven by re-pricing of FOMC expectations which means tomorrow's speeches by FOMC voters Dudley and Powell are extremely important. All 3 of these members lean towards a more dovish monetary policy stance and if they support Bernanke's view that asset purchases should be tapered this year, the EUR/USD could drop to its next level of support at 1.2935 as the trader dive in to the dollar and push the weakening euro towards  possibly to 1.2893 (although we feel that losses should be contained to that level). 

However if any of these 2 FOMC voters express  second thoughts or reservations about Bernanke's timing on reducing asset purchases, the EUR/USD could make its way back up to 1.31.

Eurusd calender 

German unemployment and Eurozone confidence numbers are also scheduled for release tomorrow and the outcome of these reports will impact the market's expectations for ECB policy and in turn the euro. If the data is good, then the central bank's threat to increase stimulus will fall on deaf ears.  Just this morning ECB President Draghi reminded everyone that the central bank stands ready to act if necessary.  Unfortunately based on the latest PMI numbers, labor market conditions most likely deteriorated in the month of June and if the data is weak, confirming that ECB policy will trail far behind the Fed, the euro could find itself trading closer to 1.29. In terms of confidence, it will be tough call since there has been both strength and weakness in the latest IFO and ZEW surveys.  These numbers shouldn't be as important as German unemployment.

06:00	DE	EUR	Import Price Index (YoY) (May)	1		-2.8%	-3.2%
06:45	FR	EUR	Consumer Confidence (Jun)	1		81	79
07:00	ES	EUR	HICP (YoY) (Jun)Preliminar	1		2.1%	1.8%
07:00	ES	EUR	Retail Sales (YoY) (May)	1			-4.7%
07:55	DE	EUR	Unemployment Change (Jun)	3		8K	21K
07:55	DE	EUR	Unemployment Rate s.a. (Jun)	3		6.9%	6.9%

EURCAD Daily

Daily

Apple Daily 4hrs 1hrly

Daily

By Mani) Great tech companies create and lead in new categories. Apple, Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) has created or redefined product categories four times with the Mac, iPod, iPhone, and iPad—an amazing record.

With smartphone market maturing, profitability and sales depend on continued innovation Although Apple says that innovation is in its DNA, creating new categories is difficult. Finding large opportunities to provide growth following the unique success of the iPhone appears nearly impossible.

Apple's patent applications are one indication of the company's potential product plans, but they are not perfect predictors. Patent applications are published about 18 months after the application.

By looking at Apple's patent filings, one could see that the Cupertino-based company would be a big beneficiary of potential evolution in the payment space.

"Our view has been that Apple's design focus would produce an e-wallet that is the easiest to use, most streamlined, and best integrated product in the market," UBS analyst Steven Milunovich wrote in a note to clients.

Apple's patent US20130124319A1 is related to "Payment Options Based On Location." Apple has also filed related patents with the US Patent office including US8255323 Motion Based Payment Confirmation and others related to NFC "Shopping" in 2010. All these indicates that Apple may develop a robust payments application that features a smart, multi-layered menu system that is context-sensitive and incorporates geotracking.

With Passbook, it seems Apple is beginning the process of integrating wallet functionality into its operating system in advance of the next payments wave. NFC will be a central element as could some sort of biometric authentication.

Apple's often-discussed Authentec acquisition could enable mass adoption of mobile payments using NFC-enabled mobile phones (i.e., next generation iPhones with NFC radios and secure elements) and biometrics (fingerprint reader) to enable highly secure dual-factor authenticated mobile payment transactions.

"These phones could serve as a secure substitute for traditional card-based POS transactions and remove higher-risk/higherpriced "card not present" transactions from the mobile payments ecosystem," Milunovich said.

Recall how recent security exploits involving the iPhone's screen lock undermined trust in the company's security capabilities and drew focus to Apple's future in mobile payments.

"By linking biometric authentication to mobile payments on the iPhone, Apple could leverage its existing iTunes user base of more than 500 million users and its emerging Passbook application to make a rapid impact in payments," the analyst said.

Meanwhile, Apple may not be the first to integrate either NFC or fingerprint technology onto a mobile device as the Google Nexus S, released in 2010, was the first to enable NFC payments; and Fujitsu's AES1710 mobile phone released in 2008 offered AuthenTec's fingerprint sensor security.

Apple may be the first to marry one of the most secure authentication methods available (biometrics/fingerprints) with one of the most secure ways to authenticate a payment transaction (NFC plus something else as a dual factor—just like Chip and PIN).

As noted above, one key competitive differentiator for Apple is its current iTunes installed base of 500 million plus iTunes accounts and 250 million iPhones, which makes rolling out additional features and functionality considerably easier.

"With regard to payments, we believe Apple will not try to displace the existing payment networks, since it already likely pays relatively low interchange and network fees given the sheer volume of purchases it brings to the networks (and which are batched multiple times per day to further lower transaction costs), and payments are not a core Apple competency," Milunovich noted.

Apple likely is more interested in collecting detailed customer data that can be used for advertising, tracking, target marketing, or some other future function that has not yet become apparent. However, it may try to bring a robust ecosystem to merge all the features necessary for a smart payment application.

EurJpy Daily & 4hr Levels

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4hrs

watch Levels