GBPUSD HRLY BULLISH Butterfly

Pair: GBPUSD
Date : 11/08/2011
Technical’s: Bullish Butterfly
Strategies: Buy on a Support 1.6174

News:

The Pound declined against the Euro and the U.S Dollar this morning, while the UK currency also fell to yet another record low versus the Swiss Franc.　

"The Bank of England’s quarterly inflation report showed that the economic outlook is worsening in the UK and the governor Mervyn King gave an indication that policy makers can expand monetary stimulus at any time if growth deteriorates further," says Adam Solomon, an exchange rate analyst at UK money transfer company Tor Fx.　

It is beginning to looking increasingly likely that the economy will slip into negative growth in the third quarter and that may prompt the BoE to begin bond-purchasing again through a means of quantitative easing.　

A level of stability has returned to the market following a volatile few days, as global risk appetite improved following the rise in global equity markets.　

The higher-yielding currencies subsequently gained ground versus the majors but the Swiss Franc continues to rally, despite attempts from the Swiss Central Bank to weaken the currency.


 

It may have potential

Be smart

Pair: GBPUSD
Date : 12/08/2011
Technical’s: Bullish Butterfly
Strategies: Buy on a Support 1.6174
Trade: Entry 1.6185 stop 1.6130

Short-term Expectation: 1.6238

News:
U.K. stocks climbed the most since May 2010, with the benchmark FTSE 100 Index rebounding from a 13-month low, as mining companies advanced. BHP Billiton Ltd., the world’s largest mining company,climbed 5.4 percent. Aquarius Platinum Ltd. gained 8.6 percent after earnings beat analysts’ estimates. Hays Plc, the U.K.’s biggest recruitment company, rose 3.9 percent as UBS AG advised buying the shares.The FTSE 100 gained 3.1 percent to 5,162.83 at the 4:30 p.m. close in London, having earlier fallen as much as 1.3 percent. The FTSE All-Share Index advanced 3 percent, while Ireland’s ISEQ Index climbed 1.7 percent.The FTSE 100 had declined 16 percent from the beginning of July through yesterday, wiping more than $566 billion from the value of U.K. shares, on speculation that Europe will fail to contain its sovereign-debt crisis and that the U.S. economic recovery is faltering. The slump has pushed down the gauge’s price-to-earnings ratio to 9.1 times the estimated earnings of its constituent companies, below the average multiple of 11.5 over the last five years, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. "I’ve been putting money to work, gently," said Piers Hillier, chief investment officer at Liverpool Victoria Asset Management Ltd., which manages 8 billion pounds ($13 billion) "Incrementally adding here is a sensible thing," he said in a Bloomberg Television interview. He is "overweight" in developed-market equities.
Newws by forexpros

Conclusions:

Worked out nicely

 

Concerns:
It fails Bad news  whip sawed out!!

EurUsd 4hr Chart 10/08/2011

Pair: Eur USD

Date : 10/08/2011


News:  Possiable French Down Grade


Technical’s:

Many different scenarios from the 1hr double top formed this morning Mr Price is now back within  Daily triangle  after falling through a number of Significant Moving averages on the 4hr hours a bit of a See Saw, hitting the base of the daily Poseidon line near minor support 1.4148
A break of the daily Poseidon line and uptrend then expect more down side. However if
Mr price holds and rallies above 1.4293 then a large abc=D rally is under way. If MR Price keeps its higher lows this would be a aggressive entry. However you can Waite for a break of 1.4299 before entering long. As always management risk

Success %:79%

11/08/2011

Eurusd updated sold @ 1.4291 stops break even

GBPUSD 10/08/2011 updated 11/08/2011

Pair:  GBPUSD

Date : 10/08/2011 
News:  

By Barbara Zigah (eToro Blog) The Bank of England’s MPC earlier unveiled its quarterly inflation report, with the backdrop of a struggling economy, little prospects for growth, and an exceptionally dissatisfied constituency, with proof seen of that in recent violence on the streets of London, blamed in part on the economic hardships faced by U.K. [...]

 http://www.etoro.net/forex-news/european-focus/gbp-european-focus-forex-news/bank-of-england-sees-near-term-rise-in-inflation-to-5-31671.html

Technical’s:
Mr price has fallen through the Poseidon Line and bounced back from the support area @ 1.6180 very near the 200DMA  in an attempt to hold the daily pivot @ 1.6244. Possible Elwave scenario  3rd of a 3rd wave down. with a close below 1.6244

Strategies:

According to our 4hr Anchor Strategy we are on the sell side with confirmed cross of relative moving averages 8DMA but not yet the 21DMA (so possiable rally

with an aim to sell rallies @ resistance or high over brough 1hrly stochastics . Closes below 1.6244 sell with stops @ 1.6340  Targets: 1.6163 break of the 200DMA expect further down side  

Success %: 79%

GBP/USD: A Bearish Trend Forming? - Trade Update

Read more: http://www.babypips.com/blogs/loonie-adventures/gbpusd-a-bearish-trend-forming.html#ixzz1UiD4dPc2

Trade worked out nicely

Timeless Trading: Problem Reaction Solution

Timeless Trading: Problem Reaction Solution: "First i would like to acknowledge that yesterdays was a tragedy to be-fall London and wider areas, and my thoughts go out to all those famil..."

Problem Reaction Solution

First i would like to acknowledge that yesterdays was a tragedy to be-fall London and wider areas, and my thoughts go out to all those families and business, homes, property that were effected in the senseless act of destruction.

What I’m concerned about is what the police want. I think they fell anger and resentfulness by being thrown to the wolves by the Politian’s in rent weeks, for the phone scandals and the plan by the govt in reducing police numbers and overtime, also the old strategy used by the govt/police and institutions of...

Problem, Reaction, solution

They will create a problem, watch for the reaction of the people, and come in like the knights in shining armour to save the day.. History repeating itself.

Cause and effect used by the Govt/police. Etc do they want more over time pay for police I heard 16000 thousand police officers would be deployed to the streets of London Which is the right thing to get some sort of order , is there disorder from the top and a change of rolls as the acting commionser Tim Gordwin calls for more police.

However, there is a bigger issues.Once control has been brought the question of the root cause will need to be addressed.
Still, I remember in the days not so long community leaders church, community leaders,, youth leaders, fathers mothers would meet up at centres and rallyed for their communities to stay together.
Should the army be brought In? In my opinion no, this is to extreme and this would under mind the police force and we do not need this.

Funny how all the leaders were away all at the same time???????. Could this be a rouse for the police to be armed? This would be a tragedy for the police and for Britain.

Bring back the youth clubs, preventative crime networks, YOT teams; bring back hope, faith, pride and morality.
in summary instantaneous gratification seems to be the order of the day. Its either young people feel like they have no power or the feel they have to much power with no control or reasonability

Timeless thoughts

Patients is a virtue a virtue to be Aquired

Patients is a virtue a virtue to be Acquired.

When it is hard, when you do not want to, when you are frustrated, when you have doubts, Where do you find the strength to follow you’re plan, where do you find the courage to trust you’re methods. Even when you want to just give up and give in to the temptation of the ‘gamble’ take the trip to the dark side of trading and become the man in the mirror, called inpatients, this man/woman acts on a whim acts on emotions without waiting for all the information.

I honestly believe that it takes time, and through time and persistence you gain experience and learn that risk reward is critical to all business, This is equal to knowing that if you fail to plan you plan for pain or to Fail. I ask myself some times that are we really some how secretly addicted to that pain are we somehow psychologically wired to harm ourselves, Wire in the Blood…..

Doing 'nothing' or 'waiting for the correct moment' in trading can be the most difficult thing to do. Those that do it well...have a great trading career with a greater sense of Peace and worthy earned quality.

On the other hand can it be true that Patience is an illusion?... Still waters run deep, and patient people break things when no one is looking.Still the saying goes that Virtue is something one envy’s in another and over looks in themselves. Bruce Filmore Dunn

For example its written in big bold black letter smoking kills but still despite the warnings, the advice, the knowing we still have that uncontrollable erge that crawling temptation to fall short and stay average when we know deep down that we are designed for greatness.

You should know what patience means and virtue means "moral excellence; goodness; righteousness." meaning patience is a virtuous personality trait. A trait that should be sort out and possessed at all cost if you wish to survive gracefully in the trading game.

A virtue is a trait or quality deemed to be morally excellent and thus is valued as a foundation of principle and good moral being. Patience can make us better people, better traders, seeing the trade from a high perceptive. I once read some where that a trading career is not a 100 meter race but a marathon. Patience is to tolerate delay implying self control and forbearance. When we say "patience is a virtue" we are exposing our moral values and expressing the importance of patience as a foundation of principle. It is a fight for peace and silence of the mind body and soul in the moment that destiny created. I believe that when a trader feels the erge, he should close he’s eyes and take 10 deep breaths and remember the joy and satisfaction of when he practiced patients. Paid attention to the King price and took orders from the two headed emperor called risk and reward.

"Nothing gives one person so much advantage over another as to remain always cool and unruffled under all circumstances." Thomas Jefferson

When men or women lack understanding of the order of God, it is impossible for them to except nor understand God's way.

Luke 21.19 says In your patience possess ye your souls.

In summary I believe one should be patient but don’t wait to long cause you might just miss the boat. Reaching from out of the abyss to efficacious, the ability of an intervention to produce the desired beneficial effect in expert hands and under ideal circumstances reaching once again for the goodness, a beneficial quality and rewards of acting with out doubt but being patient in a faith in a plan with the virtue of being practical.

Trading is all about making profits over time , not about trading ego

Most traders spend countless hours looking for that magical combination of indicators that will reveal the “holy grail” of trading strategies. Obviously, the goal is to find a winning strategy, but more oftentimes than not "winning" is misconstrued into trying to find a strategy that wins a high percentage of trades. After all, winning a trade means making money, and losing a trade means losing money, right? Don't be so sure about that.

Like many of the seemingly obvious components that go into creating a great trading plan and becoming a great trader, what we think seems logical in reality is what is holding us back.

For those of you whom have been following us here on FX360 this may not be the first time you've read something similar to this, and it won't be the last. Along with other ways to think in terms of probabilities, the following is an example of something I deeply believe needs to be not just simply understood, but ingrained into the subconscious of our trading psyche (if through nothing more than repetition) in order to ultimately eliminate emotions for every single trade we place. This may perhaps be the most difficult aspect of becoming a true professional trader, but a trait that one simply must have to stand any chance of survival—both financially, and psychologically.

Being a profitable trader is not just about winning percentages. In other words, you can earn positive returns without winning most, or even a majority, of your trades! It’s all about risk vs. reward. If your strategy allows you to identify trading opportunities that offer more reward than risk, then even a 50% winning ratio could yield a significantly positive return over time.

For example, let’s assume a $10,000 trading account where 10 trades are placed, and $100 (1%) is put at risk for each trade…

If risk-to-reward is 1-to-1, then a 50% win ratio will result in a “break-even” return…

[10 trades placed] x [50% losers] = [5 losses] x [$100] = [$500 loss]

[10 trades placed] x [50% winners] = [5 wins] x [$100] = [$500 profit]

[$500 profit] – [$500 loss] = [$0]

If risk-to-reward is 1-to-1.5, then the same 50% win ratio will result in a positive return…

[10 trades placed] x [50% losers] = [5 losses] x [$100] = [$500 loss]

[10 trades placed] x [50% winners] = [5 wins] x [$150] = [$750 profit]

[$750 profit) – [$500 loss] = [$250 profit]

In terms of percentage return, this second (profitable) example would result in a 2.5% return based on the starting account balance (total equity) of $10,000 after just 10 trades. This, of course, is the case when just 1% of total equity is put at risk. If 3% ($300) is put at risk (a rather high amount to most veteran traders), then this same example (same track record) would yield a 7.5% return. . In other words, greater profits are achieved based on the exact same performance…

[10 trades placed] x [50% losers] = [5 losses x $300] = [$1,500 loss]

[10 trades placed] x [50% winners] = [5 wins x $450] = [$2,250 profit]

[$2,250 profit] - [$1,500 loss] = [$750 profit]

Conversely, a high winning percentage (which typically necessitates a bigger margin for error, or greater risk) may actually result in smaller, less profitable returns over time. This occurs when the average risk is higher than the average reward. For example, using the same hypothetical $10,000 account that’s risking 3% ($300) let’s assume an 80% win ratio with an average risk-to-reward ratio of 2-to-1…

[10 trades placed] x [20% losers] = [2 losses x $300] = [$600 loss]

[10 trades placed] x [80% winners] = [8 wins x $150] = [$1,200 profit]

[$1,200 profit) – [$600 loss] = [$600 profit]

So the trader that boasts an 80% win ratio may actually be less profitable than the trader with a seemingly unimpressive 50% win ratio. So the question is…do you want to be right, or do you want to make money? Believe it or not, even negative returns are possible with a higher winning percentage when risk far outweighs reward, so make sure to factor this in when performing due diligence in assessing a strategy and/or track records results.

“10 Dimes Make a Dollar”

Hopefully, this demonstrates the importance of assessing risk/reward in addition to winning percentage when trying to determine the actual success, or profitability, of a trading strategy/track record. Remember, trading success not just about winning and losing individual trades—it’s about sustaining profitability over time (making money and holding onto those profits in the long run). The most common mistake newer traders make is in determining the success of a trading strategy (i.e. track record) based on winning percentage alone, which can be quite misleading when risk/reward is not taken into account. Most newer traders (unknowingly in most cases) are willing to risk far more than they are looking to gain (reward) just to be “right,” or win, each trade.

Another good piece of advice is to always keep in mind that trading is all about making profits over time , not about trading ego (which is usually the result of focusing just on winning percentages). In other words, significant returns can be achieved when you allow yourself to look at the big picture. As the saying goes, “10 dimes make a dollar.” The key is to be able to determine both entries and exits in advance so that risk vs. reward can be determined. This will significantly help to keep the decision making process as consistent and mechanical as possible, which is essential regardless of the technical/fundamental strategy that is used as it helps to eliminate emotions when making trading decisions. Only then can a truly objective decision be made as to whether or not to take the trade since this decision will be based on established/actual results, and not a “gut” feeling or reaction. Understanding the mathematical “law of averages” and “law of large numbers” reinforce this mechanical approach to trading which, again, is crucial to trading success because mixing emotions with money-based decisions is usually a recipe for disaster!

by FX360