Friday, 11 March 2011
USDX Course of action Very Very Very Ambitions Prediction
USDX hrly
Now this is the most ambition prediction I have posted so pls do not quote me it will just be interesting to see what might transpire in the course of next week whether this happens or not I do not know and above is just an ambition blue print of what might happen. As i know no one can predict the Market exactly only prefect Probability
I expected a 3 wave decline in which I posted earlier but my prices where off and it fell a lot harder than I thought it might but my initial direction was correct.
So a bounce back up to the back of the Poseidon trend line B then back down to C I’m not sure how far it will fall but i think around that 76.55 area which was the wave 2 break out . Completing the 3 wave decline then the start of 1 and further gains in the Dollar I believe this will only take place if the 200DMA holds @ 76.77
So above is what i think might happen but all really depends on the news that comes out thats all. pls post comments
5 WAVE DECLINE IN THE EUR/USD
5 Wave decline in the Eur/usd Mr price should not break 1.3860/80 area this will breach the Poseidon warning line
Target 1.3650 also watching USDX for comformation.
NZDUSD 4HRS TESTING PERVIOUS RESISTANCE
As expected, retail sales in the U.S
As expected, retail sales in the U.S. expanded for the eighth straight month in February, according to figures released by the Department of Commerce on Friday.
Total retail sales came in at $387.1 billion in February, up 1 percent from January, precisely the increase that most economists had expected.
January's figures, however, were revised upward from the 0.3 percent growth originally reported to a notably stronger 0.7 percent increase.
Much of the growth came in increased auto sales, with the report showing a 2.3 percent increase in motor vehicle and parts sales. The increase in retail sales also reflected the increased cost of gasoline, with gas stations showing a 1.4 percent increase in sales.
Excluding auto sales, retail sales increased by 0.7 percent, the same figure predicted by most economists.
RTN
Total retail sales came in at $387.1 billion in February, up 1 percent from January, precisely the increase that most economists had expected.
January's figures, however, were revised upward from the 0.3 percent growth originally reported to a notably stronger 0.7 percent increase.
Much of the growth came in increased auto sales, with the report showing a 2.3 percent increase in motor vehicle and parts sales. The increase in retail sales also reflected the increased cost of gasoline, with gas stations showing a 1.4 percent increase in sales.
Excluding auto sales, retail sales increased by 0.7 percent, the same figure predicted by most economists.
RTN
US Retail Sales 1.30GMT
The Retail Sales is a monthly measurement of all goods sold by retailers based on a sampling of retail stores of different types and sizes in the US. It is an important indicator of consumer spending and also correlated to consumer confidence and considered as a pace indicator of the US economy .
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
| Actual |  | - | |
| Forecast | | 1.00% | |
| Previous | | 0.30% |
USDCHF50/50
We have the USDCHF hrly Chart
Looking for a bounce as Mr price have cross the 55DMA and retraced back down from the median Poseidon Line(AP) to its base Line
i'm a bit worried about the overbrought hrly stochastic which could signal a further push down and the bearish bat very rare but found on the hrly
AB =38.2% THE CD=161.8%
Bearish Bat but above the 55DMAHowever, this could be a nice retracement to go long
Mr Price will have to hold above 0.9311
US Retail sales coming out later this afternoon so i'll have to waite for news to confirm move and direction.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
| Actual | | - | |
| Forecast | | 1.00% | |
| Previous | | 0.30% |
Reflection Analysis:
With a severe earthquake and tsunami hitting Japan, waves reaching as far as Hawaii and talk of Portugal requiring a bailout if Germany votes no on expanding the EFSF, we would be surprised if risk appetite managed to hold steady. The latest shock to the world's third largest economy drove investors into the arms of the U.S. dollar in an environment where everyone is already nervous about the risk posed by high oil prices and the ability of EU leaders to reach an agreement that would avoid pushing Portugal and Spain into the arms of the EFSF. The better than expected U.S. retail sales report was completely overshadowed by the developments in Japan and Europe as well as softer economic reports from other parts of the world.
Nonetheless, the monthly consumer spending report is a very important one and a key input into the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions. With the next FOMC meeting scheduled for next week, the improvement in consumer spending could give central bank officials a stronger reason to alter the "extended period" language and end asset purchases in June. The Fed may not be able to avoid growing less dovish if the unemployment rate is falling and inflation plus consumer spending is rising.
Retail sales rose 1.0 percent in the month of February from upwardly revised growth of 0.7 percent the previous month. This was the strongest pace of growth in four months and the breakdown of the report shows an underlying increase in demand that is not just caused by higher gasoline prices. Gas station receipts increased 1.4 percent but excluding auto and gas purchases, spending still rose 0.6 percent. As the weather improved, Americans spent more on electronics, clothing, sporting goods, and general merchandise. If this pace of spending continues, the choice of continuing or ending QE in June may not be a difficult one. In the meantime however, the University of Michigan consumer confidence survey is due for release later this morning. The rise in oil prices and fall in stocks has most likely put a dent in consumer confidence but the real focus will remain on Japan and the Tsunami warnings across the Pacific Coast. Once again, it will be difficult for risk appetite to recover today.
Nonetheless, the monthly consumer spending report is a very important one and a key input into the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions. With the next FOMC meeting scheduled for next week, the improvement in consumer spending could give central bank officials a stronger reason to alter the "extended period" language and end asset purchases in June. The Fed may not be able to avoid growing less dovish if the unemployment rate is falling and inflation plus consumer spending is rising.
Retail sales rose 1.0 percent in the month of February from upwardly revised growth of 0.7 percent the previous month. This was the strongest pace of growth in four months and the breakdown of the report shows an underlying increase in demand that is not just caused by higher gasoline prices. Gas station receipts increased 1.4 percent but excluding auto and gas purchases, spending still rose 0.6 percent. As the weather improved, Americans spent more on electronics, clothing, sporting goods, and general merchandise. If this pace of spending continues, the choice of continuing or ending QE in June may not be a difficult one. In the meantime however, the University of Michigan consumer confidence survey is due for release later this morning. The rise in oil prices and fall in stocks has most likely put a dent in consumer confidence but the real focus will remain on Japan and the Tsunami warnings across the Pacific Coast. Once again, it will be difficult for risk appetite to recover today.
by Kathy lien
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