You have to learn the rules of the game. And then you have to play better, adapt better, manage better and be more skillful than anyone else. Please read Disclaimer at the bottom of page
Economic Calendar
Live Economic Calendar Powered by the Forex Trading Portal Forexpros.com
Currency Strenght
Sunday, 30 December 2012
USDCHF Daily Ranges Mixed Intraday
Our preference: Long positions above 0.9138 with targets @ 0.9165 & 0.918 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 0.9127 look for further downside with 0.91 & 0.909 as targets.
Comment: intraday technical indicators are mixed and call for caution.
USDCAD Whats oil Doing
U.S. crude oil inventories fell less-than-expected last month, official data showed on Friday.
In a report, Energy Information Administration said that U.S. Crude Oil Inventories fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of -0.586M, from -0.964M in the preceding month.
Analysts had expected U.S. Crude Oil Inventories to fall -1.857M last month. from inv
In a report, Energy Information Administration said that U.S. Crude Oil Inventories fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of -0.586M, from -0.964M in the preceding month.
Analysts had expected U.S. Crude Oil Inventories to fall -1.857M last month. from inv
Our preference: Long positions above 0.9967 with targets @ 0.997 & 0.998 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 0.9906 look for further downside with 0.9905 & 0.988 as targets.
Comment: a support base at 0.9831 has formed and has allowed for a temporary stabilisation.
AUDUSD DOWN UNDER
The Australian dollar resumed its uptrend against its U.S. rival in Monday’s Asian session despite a disappointing private sector credit report.
In Asian trading Monday, AUD/USD climbed 0.25% to 1.0400. The pair is likely to find support at 1.0343, Wednesday’s low and a five-week low and resistance at 1.0395, Friday’s high.
Surprisingly, the amount of new credit extended to Australian businesses and consumers last month was flat with the prior month’s level.
In a report, Reserve Bank of Australia said that Australian Private Sector Credit remained unchanged at a seasonally adjusted 0.0%, from 0.1% in the preceding month. Analysts had expected Australian Private Sector Credit to rise 0.3% last month.
The Aussie dollar was also able to gain ground against the greenback despite more dour news about the fiscal cliff. The U.S. Senate broke for the evening with no cliff resolution in place, but has promised to reconvene later today.
During a press interview Sunday, President Obama said financial markets would be adversely impacted if Congress fails to craft a fiscal cliff resolution prior to the Tuesday deadline. Obama said his top priority to ensure that taxes on middle-class Americans do not go up.
Obama’s tone regarding a fiscal cliff resolution remains optimistic, but time is running short. Congress recessed for the evening, but pledged to reconvene later today. However, little headway was made towards resolving the GDP-draining fiscal cliff Sunday, giving policymakers less than two days with which to work.
AUDUSD 4HRS
Timelessfx preference: Long positions above 1.0440 otherwise Correctively bearish
Alternative scenario: Below 1.0365 look for further downside with 1.0345 & 1.033 as targets.
Comment: the RSI calls for a new upleg.
GBPUSD SUN Behide The clouds of Rain
The pound edged higher against the U.S. dollar on Friday, but gains were limited as sentiment turned cautious amid ongoing uncertainty surrounding talks to avert the looming fiscal cliff in the U.S.
Cable is likely to find support at 1.6065, Thursday’s low and resistance at 1.6201, Thursday’s high.
Trading volumes were thin as many investors already closed books to lock in profit before the end of the year, reducing liquidity in the market and increasing the volatility.
Market players remained focused on developments surrounding the fiscal cliff in the U.S., approximately USD600 billion in automatic tax hikes and spending cuts due to come into effect on January 1 unless Democrats and Republicans agree how to cut the deficit. news From inv
Our preference: Long positions above 1.611 with targets @ 1.62 & 1.6235 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 1.611 look for further downside with 1.606 & 1.6 as targets.
Comment: technically, the RSI is above its neutrality area at 50.
EURUSD 4 Your Eyes Only
Monday, December 31
Markets in Germany will remain closed for New Year’s Eve.
Tuesday, January 1
Markets in the U.S. and in Europe will remain closed in observance of New Year’s Day.
Wednesday, January 2
In the euro zone, Spain and Italy are to release official data on manufacturing activity, a leading indicator of economic health. In addition, Germany is to produce preliminary data on consumer price inflation.
Later in the day, the Institute of Supply Management is to produce a report on manufacturing growth in the U.S., a leading indicator of economic health.
Thursday, January 3
Official data is to be produced on German unemployment change. Separately, Spain is to publish a similar report.
Later Thursday, the U.S. is to release a report on ADP nonfarm payrolls, as well as its weekly government report on initial jobless claims. In addition, the Federal Reserve is to publish the minutes of its most recent policy-setting meeting.
Friday, January 4
The euro zone is to publish preliminary data on consumer price inflation, which accounts for the majority of overall inflation, as well as data on service sector activity.
In addition, Germany is to produce government data on retail sales, a leading indicator of economic health, while Italy and Spain will also release data on service sector growth.
The U.S. is to round up the week with official data on nonfarm payrolls, the foremost gauge of job creation, as well as data on the overall unemployment rate.
The country is also to release official data on factory orders, crude oil stockpiles and natural gas inventories. In addition, the ISM is to produce a report on service sector activity.
EURUSD 4hrs
scenario: Above 1.3211 look for further upside with 1.326 & 1.3285 as targets.
Short positions below 1.3211 with targets @ 1.32 & 1.3167 in extension.
Comment: the pair is rebounding but stands above 4hr anchor but below its resistance. and at weekly Pivot
The Precious Metal Gold and the New Year
Our preference: LONG positions above 1652 with 1669 & 1679 in sight.
Alternative scenario: The downside penetration of 1652 will call for 1645 & 1635.
Comment: a support base at 1652 has formed and has allowed for a temporary stabilisation.
Alternative scenario: The downside penetration of 1652 will call for 1645 & 1635.
Comment: a support base at 1652 has formed and has allowed for a temporary stabilisation.
Weekly pivot at 1665 above the area Mr Price is most likely will test the Sniper Zone in Red. depending on the open high low and close on the approach to this area our strategy still viewed as a Correctively Bearish move
Volatility periods is a beta test strategy signalling the best times to expect high probability movement
Hopefully in time this will prove to be a very Powerful tool to add to our Arsenal
Wednesday, 26 December 2012
USDCHF 4hrs Boxing day
USD/CHF (daily chart) has dropped to hit a rough triple bottom just above the 0.9200 support region. In the process, it has established a new 7-month low. After the first bottom was hit in mid-September, price began forming a broadening pattern that has extended to the current third bottom. Broadening formations can be considered potential although the overall trend is bearish
Tuesday, 25 December 2012
Wednesday, 19 December 2012
Monday, 17 December 2012
Apple
Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) — Growth has been spectacular with earnings increases of more than 80% in each of the past five years. However, sales growth is expected to fall to 25% for FY 2013 compared with a 45% rise in FY 2012 (ended in September), and there is an estimate of only 15% for FY 2014.
The stock had a spectacular run in 2012, up more than 70%, to a high of over $700 from $405 at the beginning of the year. Now at $510, Apple has failed to hold above its major support line at $570 for the second time, and the MACD indicator has turned down triggering a long-term sell signal following the death cross on Dec. 6.
Friday’s downside breakaway gap adds a new leg to the downtrend. Our prior downside target was $500, but is now adjusted down to $450.
Sunday, 16 December 2012
Eurusd Daily Chart and 4hr chart Updated
Eurusd Daily
On-going worries in the Eurozone Continue Finland’s Finance ministers have said that the Eurozone has to do more to bailout out indebted states.
Eurusd 4hrs
Euro Zone is still not out of deep waters as according to Eurozone leader further structural reforms are required for recovery
GBPUSD Daily and 4hr charts updated
GBpUSD Daily
The pair continues the uptrend towards the1.6307or 1.6310 resistance. Breaching this level would confirm the medium-term upside run towards the 1.6750 high. Any setbacks are expected to be well supported by the 1.5975-1.6025 area, right where the 55-Day SMA reside. However, a daily close below 1.6104could trigger a decline towards the 200-Day SMA by 1.6007 and ultimately ahead of the 1.5750-1.5790 support area, right where the 50.0% FIBO retracement level of the 1.5267-1.6310 upside rally resides.
GBPUSD 4hrs
Price enters the Sniper Zone and springs away
FTSE100 Daily and 4hr Charts
FTSE100 Daily
The FTSE 100 opened strongly on Tuesday morning on the back of increasing optimism that US President Barack Obama and House Speaker John Boehner will be able to strike a deal by the end of the year to avert the 'fiscal cliff'.
Without a deal by the January 1st deadline, the $600bn in automatic spending cuts and tax increases which come into effect are expected to pull the US economy back into recession.
Markus Huber, the head of German HNW trading at ETX Capital said this morning that with the end of the year approaching fast and an empty economic data schedule, focus will mostly be on US budget negotiations and "the smallest hint of progress or setback can have a substantial impact on the markets.
The FTSE 100 opened strongly on Tuesday morning on the back of increasing optimism that US President Barack Obama and House Speaker John Boehner will be able to strike a deal by the end of the year to avert the 'fiscal cliff'.
Without a deal by the January 1st deadline, the $600bn in automatic spending cuts and tax increases which come into effect are expected to pull the US economy back into recession.
Markus Huber, the head of German HNW trading at ETX Capital said this morning that with the end of the year approaching fast and an empty economic data schedule, focus will mostly be on US budget negotiations and "the smallest hint of progress or setback can have a substantial impact on the markets.
FTSE100 4hrs
Facebook Daily Sniper Zones
Facebook
4hr Time frame
You're Mission is to get the best price Possible for a head shot before they leave the dock
4hr Time frame
You're Mission is to get the best price Possible for a head shot before they leave the dock
Sunday, 9 December 2012
USD/JPY 4hr Outlook updated
USDJPY Daily Updated 12/17/2012
USDJPY has now broken out above it resistance levels
The dollar/yen pair is now caught within a “consolidation box” as a period of range trading is underway. A break above the recent range resistance level could see the USD/JPY threaten the 15/3/12 84.17 area highs and would mark a resumption of the mid-term strong upside trend.
A sustained break under this area could see the 80.60 area prior resistance zone come back into focus as a potential support level. This area provided significant resistance on the move up. FC
EurUsd Weekly Outlook
EUR/USD
took a tumble following remarks by ECB head Mario Draghi at a press conference in Brussels on Wednesday. Draghi was the bearer of bad news, saying that the ECB bank had revised downwards its forecast for growth in the Euro-zone, and that the bloc economy would likely shrink in 2012 and 2013. The euro quickly fell on the negative report. After that downfall, the German Bundesbank joined with its lower forecasts for 2013, regarding inflation, unemployment and growth. US Unemployment Claims improved, as the key indicator beat the estimate. German Industrial Production badly disappointed. The trading weeks wraps up with three key releases out of the US - Non-Farm Employment Change, Unemployment Rate and Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment.
Levels to look out for
- Below: 1.2880, 1.28, 1.2750, 1.2690, 1.2624, 1.2590, 1.25, 1.2440, 1.2390 and 1.2250.
- Above: 1.2960, 1.30, 1.3030, 1.3080, 1.3140, 1.3170, 1.3290 and 1.34.
- 1.2960 is providing weak resistance as the pair has dropped sharply. 1.30 is stronger.
- 1.2880 is the next line on the downside
EUR/USD Fundamentals
- 7:45 French Government Budget Balance. Actual. -94.6B.
- 7:45 French Trade Balance. Exp. -4.7B. Actual -4.9B.
- 10:00 ECB President Draghi Speaks.
- 11:00 German Industrial Production. Exp. -0.4%. Actual -2.6% – big disappointment.
- 13:30 US Non-Farm Employment Change. Exp. 89K. See how to trade this event with EUR/USD.
- 13:30 US Unemployment Rate. Exp. 7.9%.
- 13:30 US Average Hourly Earnings. Exp. +0.2%.
- 14:55 US Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment. Exp. 82.4 points.
- 14:55 US Preliminary UoM Inflation Expectations.
- 15:00 Deutsche Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann Speaks.
- 22:00 US Consumer Credit. Exp. 10.4B.
1HRLY
Euro takes a tumble after ECB statement: Following a bleak growth assessment by the ECB on Wednesday, the euro dropped sharply. ECB President Mario Draghi stated that growth in the Euro-zone was expected to drop between 0.4% and 0.6% in 2012, and to contract by at least 0.3% in 2013. The euro took the news badly, crashing below the 1.30 level. The currency has had a roller-coaster week, and has lost over 150 points in the past two days.
ECB maintains key interest rate: The ECB maintained its key interest rate at 0.75%. The rate has been pegged at this record-low level since June. However, this time around, ECB President Mario Draghi noted that the vote was not unanimous. Draghi alluded to a wide discussion on the issue, and stated that a consensus was reached to maintain the current level. This remark also contributed to negative market sentiment, and hurt the euro. Clearly, the ECB is alarmed by the state of the euro-zone economy, and there is room for a further rate cut early in 2013 if the situation does not improve.
Greece launches buy-back of debt: Greece has offered to purchase 10 billion euros of its national debt, as part of the new bailout agreement aimed at resolving the country’s severe debt crisis. Market sentiment was positive after the Greek government offered a premium on markets prices for Greek bonds. The EUR 10 billion buy-back could allow Greece to retire up to EUR 30 billion worth of debt. Greece is expecting the next installment of aid on December 13, and the buy-back is scheduled to be completed by December 17. German Chancellor Angela Merkel made an about-face, hinting that Berlin could consider a write-off of its Greek loans. Until now, Germany has strenuously objected to a write-off of Greek debt, but may have to show more flexibility if Greece is to regain its financial footing. However, Merkel is unlikely to agree to a debt haircut, in any shape or form, prior to German elections in 2013.
Spain posts solid data: There were some positive economic releases out of an unexpected source this week, as Spain posted some solid numbers. On Wednesday. the Spanish treasury raised 4.251 billion euros in a bond auction. The average yield on 10-year bonds fell to 5.29%, down from 5.52% in November. With these positive numbers, the government could continue to forgo an aid package. Just last week, Spain tapped into a bailout for its banks, as it requested the ESM to transfer about 40 billion euros money to Spain’s banking authority FROB. These funds will be add to Spain’s national debt. The country also posted a rise in Services PMI and a healthy drop in unemployment claims. However, Spain is grappling with an economic recession, and may have to resort to a rescue package sometime in 2013.
Fiscal cliff negotiations continue: Republicans and Democrats continue to battle hard over the looming fiscal cliff crisis. The Democrat proposal calls for $1.6 trillion in additional taxes over the next 10 years, with higher taxes on those earning over $250,000. The Republicans have offered $800 billion in new tax revenue from spending cuts and overhauling the tax code. However, the Republicans are split on whether to agree to higher income tax rates, and the Democrats, led by President Obama, could take advantage of the disarray in the Republican camp. The markets are hoping that the politicians will find a compromise and avoid a crisis which could threaten the fragile US recovery. Both parties are likely to continue talking tough for a while yet, as the fiscal cliff clock keeps ticking.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)