GBPUSD 4hr Update

CBI Distributive Trades Survey
Actual -5.00
Forecast 2.00
Previous -2.00
sending the gbpusd closer to the predicted daily 3rd wave down i managd to get filled on a short order @ 1.6344 stop 1.6376
Still and expected rally is still on the cards till 1.6260 is taken full out then daily 3rd wave dwn will be on its way.


PLS see Previous post from the 27/07/2011

Bulls Make money Bears Make Money Pigs get slaughtered

Date:27/7/2011

News: Fundamentals

The UK GDP release overnight showed the economy gaining 0.2% but it held some caveats that helped make the case that growth was better than the reading suggested. Relief is a good word overall for the result, but even with the soft reading, it can help set a tone for the GBP over the next few weeks as the economy has not reversed. With ongoing concerns about the US over the debt impasse, the GBP/USD can mange to make a run at the 1.6550 area in the next few weeks.
however GBPUSD is in a broad down trend...
USD is either unchanged or slightly higher against the major currencies since London open. German CPI is still being collected but regions that already announced results see somewhat higher readings. GBP weakens after CBI Industrial Order Expectations drops. US session will bring June Durable...


from Daily fx and Ashraf L

Strategies Update

Mr Price has retreated from the highs of 1.6438 as a result the dip buying play mentioned on the 24/07/2001 post has worked out nicely reaching the 1st target of 1.6386
Presently the 5wave wave up break out should have finished and the Daily 3rd wave decline should be under way. Whether Mr Price agrees with this will have to Waite for a break of 1.6201.Untill then a further rise above 1.6438 will target 1.6545 and affirm the continued bullish case and send GBP/USD through 1.6758 second target.


Synchronize: 4hr anchor stochastics

Success %:
Daily 100% Short Positioning
Short-term Expectation:

Elwave Daily 3rd wave down.
Below 1.6201 1st target 1.5545 2nd Target 1.4958
Else if Mr price holds breakout zone look for a further rise to 2nd target 1.6545

Trade: Entry long within the break out zone!! Stop 1.6201
Else
below break out zone sell short .
Conclusions and concerns: Entry within break out zone only on strong technical’s and continued good news coming out of the UK

next is (CBI) Distributive Trades Survey

Actual -
Forecast 2.00
Previous -2.00
The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) Distributive Trades Survey (DTS) measures the health of the retail sector.
The reading is concluded from a survey covers 20,000 outlets of firms responsible for 40% of employment in retailing. It includes measures of sales activity across the distributive trades.
It's a leading indicator of consumer spending.
The figure is the difference between the percentage of retailers reporting an increase and those reporting a decrease.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP.

GBPUSD UpDate 29/02/2011




BAD GDP news coming out of the US
Actual 1.30%
Forecast 1.70%
Previous 1.90%

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the broadest measure of economic activity and is a key indicator for the economy's health.
The Annualized (quarterly change x4) percent changes in GDP shows the growth rate of the economy as a whole.
Consumption is by far the largest component in the GDP of the US and has the most affect on it.
The figures can be quite volatile from quarter to quarter.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.

Broad risk aversion

Markets soured Wednesday on the debt ceiling stalemate, poor economic data and the threat of a downgrade. Broad risk aversion hurt EUR and CAD while AUD and USD were top performers. The RBNZ held rates but hinted at a 50 bps hike in the near future.

Daily usdjpy 27/07/2011

Bullish Butterfly USDCHF27/07/2011

news

The longer the US makers dither on the debt ceiling deal, the greater the sense of anxiety in the currency markets. USD/CHF remains the primary beneficiary of safe harbor flows and the pair is coming increasingly close to the key .8000 figure as traders continue to fear the prospect of total disarray should US lawmakers fail to extend the debt ceiling before the August 2nd deadline. The US has already sustained a tremendous amount of reputational damage throughout this Congressional debate and if authorities are unable to come to a workable compromise within the next few days the selling pressure in USD/CHF could cascade into full blow panic as financial markets lose faith in United States ability to govern itself.
On the other hand, with positioning highly skewed to the downside, any prospect of a deal should trigger a strong short covering rally as markets breathe a temporary sigh of relief. With little economic data to drive trade FX will remain hostage to headline risk as all eyes turn to Washington DC.

Euro Out look

Euro Out look

Elwave is suggesting that there is a Daily 3rd wave down is still in play from the 25/07/2011 Post

However in the interim we are in a 4th wave decline. This needs to hold @ 1.4324 which is where 1 wave ends on the initial push up on the 14/07/201. (Remember wave 4 cannot enter the area of wave 1. As a result If 1.4324 will hold then a finial 3rd wave push up on the 4hr and 5th wave push up on the 1hrly time frame is still in play targeting 1st @ T:1.4444 and 2nd T: @ 1.4500

Rem: 1.4324 is the exit for any bullish move opening the door to the Daily 3rd wave decline scenario above will be under way in full effect Note also that the break of 1.4324 is also the break of the 1rh 200DMA



Which is also below the Gartley B line.

Note this trade can only be taken if 1.4300 1.4382 Holds which is the 4rh 200DMA.


Pls wait for a turning 4rh stochastic

And lower time frame momentum to signal a possiable entry.

Strategies Reads


Elwave Daily 3rd wave down. However Submin 3rd wave up


and an intraday finial 5th wave Bullish Rally in still in play as long as 1.4324/1.4282 holds . else expect futher down side from the Bearish Gartley indicator which was posted in past blogs on the 25/07/2011 above.
Mr price has also broken through the triangle wedge calling for futher down side to test 1.4324....

Synchronize:
Try to meger with 4rh hour Anchor  Sell Method...

Success %: Daily Resoultion N/A
5th of a 3 wave up 4hr and 1rhly resoultion 54% chance of Rally

Trade: Possiable Entry 1.4281 Stop 1.4260

Concerns
Panic  Striaght Crash!! down

I honestly think we need to repect the daily trend downn. however, a final push up in the Eur/usd is possible if the 4hr Stochastics manages to show positive signs, and Mr price holds up from a technical perspective leading us back to challenge highs ..I will anticipate indecision and may be a AB rally then down in C opening the gate for the Daily down trend to continue. However a failure below 1.4323 1.4250 will tempt me into placing a short trade there, Or positioning ones self for to sell into rallies, sell into strength @ 1.4323 and 1.4250 zone stop @ 1.4426 thats about a 176 pip Risk..
Still if Mr price hold up we go!!





Conclusions:  
Its like the trade idea from the 25/07/2011 post was spot on. We said that there could be a
Alternative scenario: Above 1.44 look for further upside with 1.444 & 1.45 as targets. Mr Price rallyed to 1.4542.
We have taken a tumble since then with previous scenarios25/7/2011  back in play ..
i.e break out zone needs to hold before any more up side. However with two attempts   at the top 1.4555 and and a possiable Daily 3rd wave down who knows. Still We could bounce around the 1.455 and 1.4260 zone into next week...????..

GBPUSD Elwave update

GDP

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the broadest measure of economic activity and is a key indicator for the economy's health. The quarterly percent changes in GDP shows the growth rate of the economy as a whole.
Actual 0.20%
Forecast 0.20%
Previous 0.50%

Index of Services
Actual 1.20%
Forecast 0.90%
Previous 0.90%

The Index of Services measures the monthly movements in gross value added (GVA) of all service sectors. It has less affect on the GDP in the UK than the manufacturing sector.

so as a result of the news the sinking of the dolla on the obama speech with US debt ceiling still a major concern:

As a result dipping buying play mentioned on 24/07/2011 blog is still in play. with the 1st target being reached @ 1.6386. and 2.Target 1.6758

USDCHF

Pair: USDCHF
Date : 26/07/2011


News:
The longer the US makers dither on the debt ceiling deal, the greater the sense of anxiety in the currency markets. USD/CHF remains the primary beneficiary of safe harbor flows and the pair is coming increasingly close to the key .8000 figure as traders continue to fear the prospect of total disarray should US lawmakers fail to extend the debt ceiling before the August 2nd deadline. The US has already sustained a tremendous amount of reputational damage throughout this Congressional debate and if authorities are unable to come to a workable compromise within the next few days the selling pressure in USD/CHF could cascade into full blow panic as financial markets lose faith in United States ability to govern itself.




On the other hand, with positioning highly skewed to the downside, any prospect of a deal should trigger a strong short covering rally as markets breathe a temporary sigh of relief. With little economic data to drive trade FX will remain hostage to headline risk as all eyes turn to Washington DC.


Technical’s:
4hr Bullish Butterfly
 Mr price is at the Base of the Poseidon Line eyeing the middle of the Poseidon line @ 0.81180
Low stochastics but not confirmed bullish
Flat RSi
MACD Bearish but higher than the 14th July 2011


Strategie: Elwave Scerniro


Strong Multi wave down. However Becasuse of the Bullish Butterfly Patter on the 4hr Time frame
Leads me to believe that a 4th wave correction could possiably be in play 1st target 0.81180 then
2nd target 0.82100 which comes in line with 38.2 Retracement
This depends on the neews and if the use can take advantage and bring a short term rally..


Success :  38%


Light trade
Entry 0.80398
Stop 0.80000
Target: 0.81180 2nd Target:0.82055


Date:


News:


Strategies Update


Synchronize:
Success %:
Trade:


Conclusions and concerns

Standard Chartered gbpusd

Analysts at Standard Chartered claim that the Bank of England will keep the borrowing costs at the current 0.5% level until the beginning of 2013.

The specialists lowered UK economic growth forecast in 2011 from 1.4% to 1.1%. In their view, inflation may surge in the coming months, but this increase is likely to be short-lived.

The economists expect consumer prices’ growth pace to return to the target levels by the end of 2012. As a result, British central bank will start tightening monetary policy in 2013.

Analysts at BNP Paribas advise investors to pay attention to the Britain’s preliminary GDP release on Tuesday, July 26, at 12:30 pm (GMT+4). According to them, UK economy won’t grow at all, while the market is looking forward to 0.2% advance.

Pair:  GBPUSD Daily Bullish Butterly
Date : 24/07/2011

News: The British Bankers' Association
Actual -
Forecast 31.30K
Previous 30.50K

The British Bankers' Association (BBA) Mortgage Approvals measures the number of new Mortgage Approvals, backed by the BBA, during the given month.
It includes more than half of total UK mortgage market.
It provides information about the buyers in the housing market in the UK.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP.

Technical’s: : Mr Has price has Broken out above 55DMA And kissing t
he back of the Poseidon Trend Line

Strategies:
Our Preference is to try and buy dips around the Holding break out Zone

@ 1.6196 and 1.6156

...............................................................................

Elwave Scenario

Entry: 1.62977

Stop: 1.6545
Target; 1.5753
Success %: 79%

Date:

News:

Strategies Update

Synchronize:

Success %:

Trade:

concerns

Conclusions

EurUsd Daily Bearish Gatley

Pair: Eur Usd Bearish Gatley
Date : 25/07/2011
News:
Italian Consumer Confidence
Actual -
Forecast 5.60
Previous 5.70

Date: 26/07/2011
The Gfk German Consumer Climate measures the level of consumer confidence in economic activity.
The reading is concluded from survey of about 2,000 consumers.
It is a leading indicator as it can predict the consumer spending, which is a major part in the total economic activity. Higher readings point to higher consumer optimism.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.


Technical’s:
Presently Mr price has Broken out above 55DMA and 200DMA
Breach of Poseidon Warning Line
Mr Price is within a Daily Wedge XA High Low Pattern on the Daily just below the Daily falling Trend Line
High Stochastics
OBV: Correctively fallin
RSI: Still BUllish
MACD:Rising

Strategie 1 : Presently in Play Bearish Gartley  and then a  possiable Bullish Rebound
If Breakout zone will Hold 1.4291 to 1.4257

Strategie 2: Short positions below 1.44 with targets @ 1.4325 & 1.429 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Above 1.44 look for further upside with 1.444 & 1.45 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is mixed with a bearish bias.


Success %:  77% success

Elwave Scernrio

News:


Strategies Update

Eur has dropped Pass the 1.4444 support allowing the 4rh Bearish Gartley back in Play for a drop down to 1st target 1.4389 2nd Target 1.4303


...........................................................

Risk Recap

Risk Recap on 4hour Anchor Trade plan
Swing trading based on 4hr Time frame,
Let Your risk criteria be a max of 35 pips a week, either one or a combination of traders that are taken.
So you know at any period based on risk/reward of 35pips a month will be your risk limit.
1.Let risk management determine your decision.
2.Bank half @ 30pips
3.Targets 3:1
4.Approach is a retracement to support /resistance/ breakout zones selling into strength and buying into weakness.
Attempt to use Momentum tactics
candle stick
stochastic
Rsi
as desired conformation on lower time frames before pulling the triggers.
5.A combination of 4hr, 1hrly and 15minute used as an entry time frame

Timeless Trading: Structured Format

Timeless Trading: Structured Format: "I think a more consistent and Structured format is need in delivering my views of the market. making it easier for you to follow, understand..."

Structured Format

I think a more consistent and Structured format is need in delivering my views of the market. making it easier for you to follow, understand and review and comment.

See below

Trade Synchronization Plan

	Tick	Description
Pair:		Currency
Date :		Time and date
News:		Fundamentals / Economics Reports
Technical’s:		Weekly, Daily, Intraday Charts, with SS/RR and Pivot points
Strategies		Harmonics, 4hr Anchor, Poseidon. Elwave
Success%:		Based on Elwave analysis and 4hr underlying Mechanics
Date:		Time and date
News:		Economics Reports Update, and Trader sentiment
Strategies Update		Description on how Mr Price has reacted within Support and resistance zones.
Synchronize:		This is and agreement of 2> Strategies
Success%:		Based on Elwave analysis and 4hr underlying Mechanics
Short-term Expectation:		Description from 4hr to hourly expected moment
Trade:		3:1 odds Risk Management
Concerns		What your main reason why this trade may fail
Conclusions		Result

The GBPUSD Trade from the 19th to 21/07/2011

Yesterdays Chart also see previous notes on the trade plan

The GBPUSD Trade from the 19th to 21/07/2011

Since the 19th I posted that i had been watching the £/$ @ 1.6146

The 4hr Anchor system i use suggested we were bullish. As Mr Prices was above the 4hr 55DMA looking and looking for a possiable break as i specified.

Clash And conflict:

Opposite to that my Elwave system said that तेरे is 58% chance that this trade is a finial 5th wave dwn, Targeting 1.6076. Also Mr Price had breached outside my poseidon (Andrew Picthfork) Trend Line and eyeing the warning as illustrated above.

News 20/07/2011
BOE kept intrest rates the Same and there was talk from Mr Ashraf that this could be good and proved a boost in the £.

At his point my realtime Elwave system was still saying that a possiable 3rd wave dwn within a finial 5th wave dwn was on the cards.

Asian session: The Asian session did not force Price below 1.6140 and kept the bullish bias.

Untill early this morning in the european session where MR prices (£/$) rallyed against the dolla taking out 1.6184 kissing 1.6200 then fell to the 55DMA @ 1.6131.

News uk Retail sales 21/07/2011

UK Retail sales came out better than expected

Retail Sales

Actual 0.70%

Forecast 0.60%

Previous -1.30%

Retail stores had been offering significant discounts to there customers which in return boosted overall sales.

Then i checked my Real time elwave system and it had changed it's wave count as prices had taken out its short stop postions @ 1.6184 and rallyed to 1.6200.

By this time My elwave system हद kept up and monitored price change nicely and हद now given a positive count to go long in Submin 3rd wave up or an ABC correction. with a 68% chance of this happening.

The simple fact is that the system changed and had now synchronized with my 4hour Anchor scenario and possiable break out as earlier discribed caused me to raise my eye brows.
A up lifting feeling came from inside and it felt good and right.
So i buckled up and took the trade long @ 1.6147 stop at 1.6120

So in essence

1.I waited for my Real time Elwave count to coincide with Pirice action

2. Waited for Mr Price to hold a significant support area which was the 200DMA on the 4hrs and the 55DMA on the Hrly time frame.

3. Saw that Prices had held within the posiedon warning line .

4. Candle stick hesistation on lower time frames with a doji, followed by a 15 min buy signal

Then BOOOOOOOOOOM!!! 98 pips Later on 1 lot Have a nice pay day Thank you very much!!!

Lesson.

Plan, watch, be patient, wait for the market to come to you and synchronize systems.

and most of all

News and technicals must get Married!!

p.s alway leave a little on the table you never know!!!

Mr K.ijelu

Hi Guys and Girls been away for a while on hoilday to the dominican Rep trying to settle back in to things.
anyways i'm watch the pound
 
MY NOTES
 
The Bank of England (BOE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) Meeting Minutes are a detailed record of the committee's interest rate meeting held about two weeks earlier.

It gives a picture of economic conditions in the UK.
It also records the votes of the individual members of the Committee
If the BoE is hawkish about the inflationary outlook, it should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP.

Bears : £ @ 1.6128 and  Is Still with in the April 27th fallin trend line from 1.6751
And according to my account were yet to have a 5thwave completions  Target 1 1.6011 with a 58% chance of this taking place. Target 2 in the 1.58/1.57 region. a break of 1.6042 will comfirm this.

Bulls: Were above the 55DMA on the 4hr chart slightly bullish MACD, and RSi
depending on the news bulls will have to break out of the trenches and hold above 1.6200. If this transpires i'll be looking for a pull back to go long. meaning

Hope this helps

Mr Kasim Ijelu

Recent news
MrAshraf.L
The release of this month's BoE MPC minutes showed no change in the split (7 voted for no change in rates, 2 voted for a hike and Posen remains the ony voter for further stimulus). Interestingly, the majority of the MPC made no explicit reference to QE--something the market was focusing on ahead of the release.